Backtest History

3859 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	10	Notre Dame @ Clemson	23–31	+18.7	+3.0	-8.0	26.7
2023	10	FCS @ Sam Houston	21–24	-4.0	-16.5	-3.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	Wake Forest @ Duke	21–24	-14.6	-6.5	-3.0	11.6
2023	10	Boston College @ Syracuse	17–10	+10.6	-0.5	+7.0	3.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	Florida State @ Pittsburgh	24–7	+19.5	+21.5	+17.0	2.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	Georgia Tech @ Virginia	45–17	-8.1	-1.5	+28.0	36.1
2023	10	Virginia Tech @ Louisville	3–34	-8.0	-9.8	-31.0	23.0
2023	10	Miami @ NC State	6–20	+2.2	+6.0	-14.0	16.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	FCS @ North Carolina	7–59	-26.6	-45.5	-52.0	25.4
2023	10	TCU @ Texas Tech	28–35	+1.8	-2.5	-7.0	8.8
2023	10	Houston @ Baylor	25–24	+3.5	-2.5	+1.0	2.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	UCF @ Cincinnati	28–26	+6.1	+3.5	+2.0	4.1
2023	10	Kansas @ Iowa State	28–21	+0.6	-2.5	+7.0	6.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State	24–27	-4.8	+6.0	-3.0	1.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	Kansas State @ Texas	30–33	+8.7	-3.8	-3.0	11.7
2023	10	BYU @ West Virginia	7–37	-10.0	-12.5	-30.0	20.0
2023	10	Charlotte @ Tulsa	33–26	+7.9	-4.5	+7.0	0.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	Tulane @ East Carolina	13–10	+13.3	+17.0	+3.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	Florida Atlantic @ UAB	42–45	+3.5	+1.0	-3.0	6.5
2023	10	Navy @ Temple	18–32	+15.0	+7.0	-14.0	29.0
2023	10	UTSA @ North Texas	37–29	+3.5	+7.5	+8.0	4.5
2023	10	South Florida @ Memphis	50–59	-25.7	-13.5	-9.0	16.7
2023	10	SMU @ Rice	36–31	+18.1	+12.5	+5.0	13.1
2023	10	South Alabama @ Troy	10–28	-5.5	-6.5	-18.0	12.5
2023	10	Marshall @ App State	9–31	-4.0	-3.0	-22.0	18.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	James Madison @ Georgia State	42–14	+5.3	+6.0	+28.0	22.7
2023	10	Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion	28–24	+5.4	-0.5	+4.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	Louisiana @ Arkansas State	17–37	+11.4	+7.0	-20.0	31.4
2023	10	UL Monroe @ Southern Miss	7–24	+4.7	-3.0	-17.0	21.7
2023	10	Georgia Southern @ Texas State	24–45	+0.1	-0.3	-21.0	21.1
2023	10	Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan	31–37	+16.4	+4.8	-6.0	22.4
2023	10	Buffalo @ Toledo	13–31	-13.3	-14.5	-18.0	4.7
2023	10	Ball State @ Bowling Green	21–24	-12.6	-4.5	-3.0	9.6
2023	10	Kent State @ Akron	27–31	-3.0	-3.5	-4.0	1.0
2023	10	Boise State @ Fresno State	30–37	+1.5	-2.5	-7.0	8.5
2023	10	Colorado State @ Wyoming	15–24	+1.4	-6.0	-9.0	10.4
2023	10	Hawai'i @ Nevada	27–14	-16.3	-3.5	+13.0	29.3
2023	10	UNLV @ New Mexico	56–14	+8.5	+14.5	+42.0	33.5
2023	10	Utah State @ San Diego State	32–24	+16.0	+2.3	+8.0	8.0
2023	9	New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech	27–24	+10.1	-3.0	+3.0	7.1
2023	9	Liberty @ Western Kentucky	42–29	+8.5	+4.0	+13.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Jacksonville State @ Florida International	41–16	+10.5	+9.0	+25.0	14.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	UTEP @ Sam Houston	37–34	-3.9	-4.0	+3.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Massachusetts @ Army	21–14	-10.3	-10.0	+7.0	17.3
2023	9	Mississippi State @ Auburn	13–27	+0.6	-6.5	-14.0	14.6
2023	9	UConn @ Boston College	14–21	-21.2	-14.5	-7.0	14.2
2023	9	Georgia vs Florida	43–20	+17.3	+14.0	+23.0	5.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Tennessee @ Kentucky	33–27	+11.6	+3.5	+6.0	5.6
2023	9	Michigan State @ Minnesota	12–27	-10.3	-6.5	-15.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Purdue @ Nebraska	14–31	-2.8	+1.0	-17.0	14.2 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.