Backtest History

3859 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	9	Maryland @ Northwestern	27–33	+12.8	+14.0	-6.0	18.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss	7–33	-26.1	-24.0	-26.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Indiana @ Penn State	24–33	-35.6	-31.0	-9.0	26.6
2023	9	South Carolina @ Texas A&M	17–30	-21.0	-17.0	-13.0	8.0
2023	9	Ohio State @ Wisconsin	24–10	+21.5	+14.5	+14.0	7.5
2023	9	Oregon State @ Arizona	24–27	-2.1	+3.0	-3.0	0.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Washington State @ Arizona State	27–38	-3.9	+4.5	-11.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	USC @ California	50–49	+9.9	+10.5	+1.0	8.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Washington @ Stanford	42–33	+26.3	+27.5	+9.0	17.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Colorado @ UCLA	16–28	-19.5	-14.0	-12.0	7.5
2023	9	Oregon @ Utah	35–6	+7.1	+6.5	+29.0	21.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame	7–58	-13.0	-21.0	-51.0	38.0
2023	9	Syracuse @ Virginia Tech	10–38	-9.7	-2.5	-28.0	18.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Clemson @ NC State	17–24	+3.6	+10.0	-7.0	10.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Duke @ Louisville	0–23	+0.4	-5.0	-23.0	23.4
2023	9	Florida State @ Wake Forest	41–16	+28.1	+21.0	+25.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	North Carolina @ Georgia Tech	42–46	+15.4	+12.0	-4.0	19.4
2023	9	Virginia @ Miami	26–29	-7.2	-18.5	-3.0	4.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Iowa State @ Baylor	30–18	+15.2	+3.0	+12.0	3.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Oklahoma @ Kansas	33–38	+3.8	+7.0	-5.0	8.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Houston @ Kansas State	0–41	-23.9	-17.5	-41.0	17.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State	13–45	-21.8	-7.5	-32.0	10.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	BYU @ Texas	6–35	-24.9	-20.5	-29.0	4.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	West Virginia @ UCF	41–28	-4.9	-6.5	+13.0	17.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Tulsa @ SMU	10–69	-33.0	-20.5	-59.0	26.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Tulane @ Rice	30–28	-3.5	+10.0	+2.0	5.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	East Carolina @ UTSA	27–41	-21.3	-17.5	-14.0	7.3
2023	9	Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte	38–16	-2.5	+3.5	+22.0	24.5
2023	9	Memphis @ North Texas	45–42	+8.3	+6.5	+3.0	5.3
2023	9	Southern Miss @ App State	38–48	-13.5	-16.0	-10.0	3.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Marshall @ Coastal Carolina	6–34	-4.3	+3.5	-28.0	23.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Old Dominion @ James Madison	27–30	-23.0	-19.5	-3.0	20.0
2023	9	Arkansas State @ UL Monroe	34–24	-0.2	-1.0	+10.0	10.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Louisiana @ South Alabama	33–20	-22.7	-11.5	+13.0	35.7
2023	9	Troy @ Texas State	31–13	+16.0	+6.5	+18.0	2.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Georgia State @ Georgia Southern	27–44	+7.9	0.0	-17.0	24.9
2023	9	Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	45–21	+3.0	+3.0	+24.0	21.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Miami (OH) @ Ohio	30–16	-3.5	-7.5	+14.0	17.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Air Force @ Colorado State	30–13	+11.7	+14.5	+17.0	5.3
2023	9	New Mexico @ Nevada	24–34	+3.0	0.0	-10.0	13.0
2023	9	San José State @ Hawai'i	35–0	+28.6	+10.0	+35.0	6.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	UNLV @ Fresno State	24–31	-5.6	-10.5	-7.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	Wyoming @ Boise State	7–32	+1.8	-4.5	-25.0	26.8
2023	8	Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State	17–20	+7.7	+7.5	-3.0	10.7
2023	8	Middle Tennessee @ Liberty	35–42	-22.0	-16.0	-7.0	15.0
2023	8	Florida International @ Sam Houston	33–27	-10.8	-5.5	+6.0	16.8
2023	8	New Mexico State @ UTEP	28–7	+5.7	+3.0	+21.0	15.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Tennessee @ Alabama	20–34	-7.8	-8.5	-14.0	6.2
2023	8	Mississippi State @ Arkansas	7–3	-14.6	-7.0	+4.0	18.6
2023	8	Ole Miss @ Auburn	28–21	+13.2	+6.5	+7.0	6.2

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.