Backtest History

3859 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	8	Wisconsin @ Illinois	25–21	+5.8	+3.0	+4.0	1.8
2023	8	Rutgers @ Indiana	31–14	+10.0	+6.0	+17.0	7.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Minnesota @ Iowa	12–10	-15.1	-3.5	+2.0	17.1
2023	8	Army @ LSU	0–62	-32.4	-33.0	-62.0	29.6
2023	8	Michigan @ Michigan State	49–0	+29.5	+25.5	+49.0	19.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	South Carolina @ Missouri	12–34	-12.8	-7.5	-22.0	9.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Northwestern @ Nebraska	9–17	-15.7	-10.5	-8.0	7.7
2023	8	Penn State @ Ohio State	12–20	-7.6	-4.0	-8.0	0.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	South Florida @ UConn	24–21	-16.5	-1.0	+3.0	19.5
2023	8	Washington State @ Oregon	24–38	-32.9	-19.5	-14.0	18.9
2023	8	UCLA @ Stanford	42–7	+13.1	+17.0	+35.0	21.9
2023	8	Utah @ USC	34–32	-0.1	-7.0	+2.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Arizona State @ Washington	7–15	-33.5	-28.0	-8.0	25.5
2023	8	Boston College @ Georgia Tech	38–23	-5.7	-6.0	+15.0	20.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Clemson @ Miami	20–28	-1.2	+6.0	-8.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Duke @ Florida State	20–38	-11.8	-14.0	-18.0	6.2
2023	8	Virginia @ North Carolina	31–27	-23.7	-24.0	+4.0	27.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest	17–21	+14.7	+3.0	-4.0	18.7
2023	8	Texas Tech @ BYU	14–27	+10.1	+3.0	-13.0	23.1
2023	8	Baylor @ Cincinnati	32–29	-6.8	-2.5	+3.0	9.8
2023	8	Texas @ Houston	31–24	+25.6	+23.5	+7.0	18.6
2023	8	TCU @ Kansas State	3–41	-1.2	-5.5	-38.0	36.8
2023	8	UCF @ Oklahoma	29–31	-38.5	-17.0	-2.0	36.5
2023	8	Oklahoma State @ West Virginia	48–34	-3.6	-3.0	+14.0	17.6
2023	8	Rice @ Tulsa	42–10	-10.6	-3.0	+32.0	42.6
2023	8	North Texas @ Tulane	28–35	-11.5	-20.0	-7.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Memphis @ UAB	45–21	-0.5	+7.5	+24.0	24.5
2023	8	SMU @ Temple	55–0	+27.0	+24.0	+55.0	28.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	UTSA @ Florida Atlantic	36–10	-9.2	+2.5	+26.0	35.2
2023	8	Charlotte @ East Carolina	10–7	-6.4	-6.0	+3.0	9.4
2023	8	Air Force @ Navy	17–6	+13.6	+11.0	+11.0	2.6
2023	8	Southern Miss @ South Alabama	3–55	-26.8	-18.5	-52.0	25.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	James Madison @ Marshall	20–9	+15.9	+5.0	+11.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern	28–38	-16.6	-16.5	-10.0	6.6
2023	8	App State @ Old Dominion	21–28	+1.7	+6.0	-7.0	8.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State	27–17	+8.3	+8.5	+10.0	1.7
2023	8	Georgia State @ Louisiana	20–17	+7.5	-3.0	+3.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Central Michigan @ Ball State	17–24	-3.4	+5.0	-7.0	3.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois	13–20	-21.3	-12.0	-7.0	14.3
2023	8	Toledo @ Miami (OH)	21–17	-9.7	+2.0	+4.0	13.7
2023	8	Western Michigan @ Ohio	17–20	-15.3	-16.5	-3.0	12.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Akron @ Bowling Green	14–41	-18.9	-7.0	-27.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Buffalo @ Kent State	24–6	+3.6	+6.5	+18.0	14.4
2023	8	Colorado State @ UNLV	23–25	-12.4	-6.5	-2.0	10.4
2023	8	Hawai'i @ New Mexico	21–42	-1.3	+1.5	-21.0	19.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Nevada @ San Diego State	6–0	-6.2	-11.0	+6.0	12.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	8	Utah State @ San José State	21–42	-1.5	-4.0	-21.0	19.5
2023	7	Liberty @ Jacksonville State	31–13	+3.3	+7.0	+18.0	14.7
2023	7	Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee	23–31	+3.3	-3.0	-8.0	11.3
2023	7	UTEP @ Florida International	27–14	-7.0	-3.5	+13.0	20.0

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.