Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	11	Kentucky @ Vanderbilt	34–17	+23.1	+21.5	+17.0	6.1
2021	11	Charlotte @ Louisiana Tech	32–42	-8.4	-7.0	-10.0	1.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Florida International @ Middle Tennessee	10–50	-18.8	-10.5	-40.0	21.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Florida Atlantic @ Old Dominion	16–30	+2.4	+6.5	-14.0	16.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	UAB @ Marshall	21–14	-12.5	-4.5	+7.0	19.5
2021	11	UTEP @ North Texas	17–20	+3.0	-0.5	-3.0	6.0
2021	11	Western Kentucky @ Rice	42–21	+20.7	+19.0	+21.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Southern Miss @ UTSA	17–27	-52.2	-32.5	-10.0	42.2
2021	11	North Carolina @ Pittsburgh	23–30	-10.3	-6.5	-7.0	3.3
2021	11	UConn @ Clemson	7–44	-43.6	-40.5	-37.0	6.6
2021	11	Miami @ Florida State	28–31	+2.7	+2.5	-3.0	5.7
2021	11	Boston College @ Georgia Tech	41–30	-0.2	+1.8	+11.0	11.2
2021	11	Syracuse @ Louisville	3–41	+2.7	-3.0	-38.0	40.7
2021	11	Notre Dame @ Virginia	28–3	+7.7	+8.0	+25.0	17.3
2021	11	Duke @ Virginia Tech	17–48	-16.6	-13.0	-31.0	14.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	NC State @ Wake Forest	42–45	+2.0	-1.0	-3.0	5.0
2021	11	Rutgers @ Indiana	38–3	-3.8	-6.5	+35.0	38.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Minnesota @ Iowa	22–27	+1.8	-4.0	-5.0	6.8
2021	11	Maryland @ Michigan State	21–40	-21.1	-11.5	-19.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Michigan @ Penn State	21–17	+0.1	+2.5	+4.0	3.9
2021	11	Northwestern @ Wisconsin	7–35	-35.9	-25.5	-28.0	7.9
2021	11	Purdue @ Ohio State	31–59	-7.9	-19.0	-28.0	20.1
2021	11	FCS @ Massachusetts	35–10	+11.1	+5.0	+25.0	13.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Oklahoma @ Baylor	14–27	+2.9	+4.0	-13.0	15.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	West Virginia @ Kansas State	17–34	-6.4	-6.0	-17.0	10.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	TCU @ Oklahoma State	17–63	-22.5	-11.0	-46.0	23.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Kansas @ Texas	57–56	-23.9	-31.0	+1.0	24.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Iowa State @ Texas Tech	38–41	+19.7	+12.5	-3.0	22.7
2021	11	Cincinnati @ South Florida	45–28	+17.4	+24.0	+17.0	0.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	UCF @ SMU	28–55	-3.4	-7.0	-27.0	23.6
2021	11	East Carolina @ Memphis	30–29	+0.0	-4.0	+1.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Houston @ Temple	37–8	+34.4	+25.5	+29.0	5.4
2021	11	Tulsa @ Tulane	20–13	+0.4	+3.0	+7.0	6.6
2021	11	Buffalo @ Miami (OH)	18–45	-15.1	-7.0	-27.0	11.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Ohio @ Eastern Michigan	34–26	-10.3	-6.0	+8.0	18.3
2021	11	Akron @ Western Michigan	40–45	-15.4	-24.5	-5.0	10.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Toledo @ Bowling Green	49–17	+13.2	+10.5	+32.0	18.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Kent State @ Central Michigan	30–54	-10.7	-2.5	-24.0	13.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Ball State @ Northern Illinois	29–30	-3.4	+3.0	-1.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	South Alabama @ App State	7–31	-19.9	-21.5	-24.0	4.1
2021	11	Arkansas State @ UL Monroe	27–24	-6.4	-3.0	+3.0	9.4
2021	11	Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina	42–40	-9.4	-12.5	+2.0	11.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Georgia Southern @ Texas State	38–30	+1.8	-2.0	+8.0	6.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Louisiana @ Troy	35–21	+7.9	+6.5	+14.0	6.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Stanford @ Oregon State	14–35	-21.1	-12.5	-21.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Washington State @ Oregon	24–38	-8.9	-13.3	-14.0	5.1
2021	11	Utah @ Arizona	38–29	+22.6	+24.0	+9.0	13.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Arizona State @ Washington	35–30	+10.8	+6.0	+5.0	5.8
2021	11	Colorado @ UCLA	20–44	-12.3	-18.0	-24.0	11.7
2021	11	FCS @ Army	10–63	-33.7	-51.5	-53.0	19.3

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.