Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11 | Arizona State @ Washington State | 18–28 | -15.4 | -9.5 | -10.0 | 5.4 |
| 2022 | 11 | California @ Oregon State | 10–38 | -12.0 | -11.5 | -28.0 | 16.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Washington @ Oregon | 37–34 | -11.6 | -12.0 | +3.0 | 14.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Stanford @ Utah | 7–42 | -26.7 | -24.0 | -35.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Kansas State @ Baylor | 31–3 | -2.3 | -2.5 | +28.0 | 30.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Iowa State @ Oklahoma State | 14–20 | +10.2 | +2.8 | -6.0 | 16.2 |
| 2022 | 11 | Kansas @ Texas Tech | 28–43 | +1.1 | -3.5 | -15.0 | 16.1 |
| 2022 | 11 | Oklahoma @ West Virginia | 20–23 | +11.3 | +8.5 | -3.0 | 14.3 |
| 2022 | 11 | TCU @ Texas | 17–10 | -9.9 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 16.9 |
| 2022 | 11 | Notre Dame vs Navy | 35–32 | +18.6 | +17.0 | +3.0 | 15.6 |
| 2022 | 11 | Army @ Troy | 9–10 | -10.9 | -8.5 | -1.0 | 9.9 |
| 2022 | 11 | Liberty @ UConn | 33–36 | +9.1 | +13.5 | -3.0 | 12.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Purdue @ Illinois | 31–24 | -16.4 | -6.0 | +7.0 | 23.4 |
| 2022 | 11 | Wisconsin @ Iowa | 10–24 | -7.1 | 0.0 | -14.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Northwestern @ Minnesota | 3–31 | -6.6 | -17.0 | -28.0 | 21.4 |
| 2022 | 11 | Nebraska @ Michigan | 3–34 | -31.2 | -30.5 | -31.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Rutgers @ Michigan State | 21–27 | -21.9 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 15.9 |
| 2022 | 11 | Indiana @ Ohio State | 14–56 | -40.5 | -40.0 | -42.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Maryland @ Penn State | 0–30 | -17.0 | -10.5 | -30.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | FCS @ New Mexico State | 14–51 | -5.4 | -22.0 | -37.0 | 31.6 |
| 2022 | 11 | Louisville @ Clemson | 16–31 | +14.5 | -7.0 | -15.0 | 29.5 |
| 2022 | 11 | Virginia Tech @ Duke | 7–24 | -13.9 | -10.0 | -17.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Miami @ Georgia Tech | 35–14 | -6.7 | -2.0 | +21.0 | 27.7 |
| 2022 | 11 | Boston College @ NC State | 21–20 | -8.7 | -18.0 | +1.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Florida State @ Syracuse | 38–3 | +16.5 | +7.0 | +35.0 | 18.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Pittsburgh @ Virginia | 37–7 | +0.8 | +5.5 | +30.0 | 29.2 |
| 2022 | 11 | North Carolina @ Wake Forest | 36–34 | -0.2 | -4.5 | +2.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Massachusetts @ Arkansas State | 33–35 | -5.9 | -17.3 | -2.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Boise State @ Nevada | 41–3 | +24.2 | +21.0 | +38.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | New Mexico @ Air Force | 3–35 | -32.3 | -21.0 | -32.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Utah State @ Hawai'i | 41–34 | +8.7 | +10.5 | +7.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Wyoming @ Colorado State | 14–13 | +11.3 | +8.5 | +1.0 | 10.3 |
| 2022 | 11 | Fresno State @ UNLV | 37–30 | +7.2 | +8.5 | +7.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | San José State @ San Diego State | 27–43 | -8.4 | +2.3 | -16.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Tulsa @ Memphis | 10–26 | -10.0 | -6.5 | -16.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | East Carolina @ Cincinnati | 25–27 | +0.7 | -4.5 | -2.0 | 2.7 |
| 2022 | 11 | Temple @ Houston | 36–43 | -10.2 | -20.0 | -7.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | SMU @ South Florida | 41–23 | +17.7 | +17.5 | +18.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | UCF @ Tulane | 38–31 | -4.8 | -1.0 | +7.0 | 11.8 |
| 2022 | 11 | Ball State @ Toledo | 21–28 | -12.4 | -13.5 | -7.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Eastern Michigan @ Akron | 34–28 | +11.2 | +6.3 | +6.0 | 5.2 |
| 2022 | 11 | Ohio @ Miami (OH) | 37–21 | +13.8 | +2.5 | +16.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan | 24–21 | -5.7 | +0.5 | +3.0 | 8.7 |
| 2022 | 11 | Buffalo @ Central Michigan | 27–31 | +1.2 | -2.8 | -4.0 | 5.2 |
| 2022 | 11 | Kent State @ Bowling Green | 40–6 | -10.6 | +2.8 | +34.0 | 44.6 |
| 2022 | 11 | Georgia Southern @ Louisiana | 17–36 | +5.7 | -3.5 | -19.0 | 24.7 |
| 2022 | 11 | Southern Miss @ Coastal Carolina | 23–26 | -15.2 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 12.2 |
| 2022 | 11 | UL Monroe @ Georgia State | 31–28 | -21.9 | -13.5 | +3.0 | 24.9 |
| 2022 | 11 | App State @ Marshall | 21–28 | +5.3 | +2.0 | -7.0 | 12.3 |
| 2022 | 11 | James Madison @ Old Dominion | 37–3 | +2.2 | +7.5 | +34.0 | 31.8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.