Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	11	Alabama @ Kentucky	49–21	+14.0	+10.5	+28.0	14.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech	42–27	-12.6	-8.5	+15.0	27.6
2023	11	Old Dominion @ Liberty	10–38	-11.4	-13.5	-28.0	16.6
2023	11	Florida @ LSU	35–52	-22.9	-16.0	-17.0	5.9
2023	11	Florida International @ Middle Tennessee	6–40	-16.6	-10.5	-34.0	17.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Tennessee @ Missouri	7–36	+0.5	+2.0	-29.0	29.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Maryland @ Nebraska	13–10	-9.1	+1.5	+3.0	12.1
2023	11	Michigan State @ Ohio State	3–38	-34.5	-32.0	-35.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Michigan @ Penn State	24–15	+5.0	+4.5	+9.0	4.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Minnesota @ Purdue	30–49	-2.0	+1.5	-19.0	17.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	6–47	-14.4	-13.5	-41.0	26.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Mississippi State @ Texas A&M	10–51	-22.7	-16.5	-41.0	18.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Northwestern @ Wisconsin	24–10	-11.3	-12.0	+14.0	25.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky	38–29	-1.7	-5.0	+9.0	10.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Washington State @ California	39–42	-1.8	-1.5	-3.0	1.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Arizona @ Colorado	34–31	+18.4	+8.0	+3.0	15.4
2023	11	USC @ Oregon	27–36	-29.4	-16.5	-9.0	20.4
2023	11	Stanford @ Oregon State	17–62	-23.2	-21.5	-45.0	21.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Arizona State @ UCLA	17–7	-21.9	-14.0	+10.0	31.9
2023	11	Utah @ Washington	28–35	+0.4	-9.5	-7.0	7.4
2023	11	Virginia @ Louisville	24–31	-31.5	-20.0	-7.0	24.5
2023	11	Virginia Tech @ Boston College	48–22	-4.6	+2.5	+26.0	30.6
2023	11	Georgia Tech @ Clemson	21–42	-2.3	-15.5	-21.0	18.7
2023	11	Duke @ North Carolina	45–47	-11.2	-10.0	-2.0	9.2
2023	11	Miami @ Florida State	20–27	-21.7	-14.5	-7.0	14.7
2023	11	NC State @ Wake Forest	26–6	+8.2	+2.0	+20.0	11.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	13–28	+9.4	+3.0	-15.0	24.4
2023	11	Iowa State @ BYU	45–13	+11.5	+7.5	+32.0	20.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Cincinnati @ Houston	24–14	-3.2	-3.0	+10.0	13.2
2023	11	Texas Tech @ Kansas	16–13	-17.8	-3.5	+3.0	20.8
2023	11	Baylor @ Kansas State	25–59	-31.1	-20.5	-34.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	West Virginia @ Oklahoma	20–59	-6.6	-13.0	-39.0	32.4
2023	11	Texas @ TCU	29–26	+11.8	+12.5	+3.0	8.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Oklahoma State @ UCF	3–45	+7.7	+2.5	-42.0	49.7
2023	11	Tulsa @ Tulane	22–24	-24.4	-24.5	-2.0	22.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	UAB @ Navy	6–31	+12.6	+3.5	-25.0	37.6
2023	11	Temple @ South Florida	23–27	-6.6	-7.5	-4.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Rice @ UTSA	14–34	-4.1	-13.5	-20.0	15.9
2023	11	Memphis @ Charlotte	44–38	+14.6	+10.0	+6.0	8.6
2023	11	East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic	22–7	-3.7	-7.5	+15.0	18.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	North Texas @ SMU	21–45	-26.0	-20.5	-24.0	2.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Southern Miss @ Louisiana	34–31	-9.3	-8.5	+3.0	12.3
2023	11	Texas State @ Coastal Carolina	23–31	-3.9	+2.8	-8.0	4.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	App State @ Georgia State	42–14	+7.0	-2.5	+28.0	21.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Georgia Southern @ Marshall	33–38	+2.6	+1.5	-5.0	7.6
2023	11	Troy @ UL Monroe	45–14	+32.3	+21.5	+31.0	1.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Arkansas State @ South Alabama	14–21	-8.0	-14.5	-7.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Ball State @ Northern Illinois	20–17	-6.6	-9.5	+3.0	9.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Central Michigan @ Western Michigan	28–38	-8.6	-3.5	-10.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Ohio @ Buffalo	20–10	+5.9	+9.5	+10.0	4.1

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.