Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12 | Wisconsin @ Indiana | 7–31 | -30.7 | -28.0 | -24.0 | 6.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | Purdue @ Washington | 13–49 | -17.0 | -14.5 | -36.0 | 19.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Penn State @ Michigan State | 28–10 | +12.5 | +7.0 | +18.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Minnesota @ Oregon | 13–42 | -28.8 | -26.5 | -29.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Michigan vs Northwestern | 24–22 | +9.7 | +10.0 | +2.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Maryland @ Illinois | 6–24 | -15.1 | -16.5 | -18.0 | 2.9 |
| 2025 | 12 | Iowa @ USC | 21–26 | -4.9 | -6.5 | -5.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Oregon State @ Tulsa | 14–31 | -4.4 | -1.5 | -17.0 | 12.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Louisiana Tech @ Washington State | 3–28 | -10.6 | -10.0 | -25.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Clemson @ Louisville | 20–19 | +8.2 | -1.5 | +1.0 | 7.2 |
| 2025 | 12 | Georgia Tech @ Boston College | 36–34 | +15.8 | +16.5 | +2.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Virginia @ Duke | 34–17 | -4.9 | -5.5 | +17.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Virginia Tech @ Florida State | 14–34 | -20.6 | -14.0 | -20.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | NC State @ Miami | 7–41 | -12.6 | -16.5 | -34.0 | 21.4 |
| 2025 | 12 | North Carolina @ Wake Forest | 12–28 | -11.4 | -3.5 | -16.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh | 37–15 | +5.4 | +12.5 | +22.0 | 16.6 |
| 2025 | 12 | West Virginia @ Arizona State | 23–25 | -14.2 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 12.2 |
| 2025 | 12 | Utah @ Baylor | 55–28 | +15.4 | +9.5 | +27.0 | 11.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | TCU @ BYU | 13–44 | -11.2 | -3.0 | -31.0 | 19.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Arizona @ Cincinnati | 30–24 | -8.0 | -6.0 | +6.0 | 14.0 |
| 2025 | 12 | Kansas State @ Oklahoma State | 14–6 | +22.9 | +19.5 | +8.0 | 14.9 |
| 2025 | 12 | UCF @ Texas Tech | 9–48 | -27.7 | -24.5 | -39.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Air Force @ UConn | 16–26 | -8.4 | -7.5 | -10.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Delaware vs Sam Houston | 23–26 | +4.7 | +11.5 | -3.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Liberty @ Florida International | 27–34 | -4.6 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State | 26–35 | +2.0 | +3.5 | -9.0 | 11.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky | 26–42 | -15.9 | -13.5 | -16.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | UTEP @ Missouri State | 24–38 | -10.9 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Boise State @ San Diego State | 7–17 | -5.0 | -2.0 | -10.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Colorado State @ New Mexico | 17–20 | -26.7 | -15.5 | -3.0 | 23.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | Wyoming @ Fresno State | 3–24 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 17.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | San José State @ Nevada | 10–55 | +17.0 | +9.5 | -45.0 | 62.0 |
| 2025 | 12 | Utah State @ UNLV | 26–29 | -2.9 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Troy @ Old Dominion | 0–33 | -10.0 | -9.5 | -33.0 | 23.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern | 40–45 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 2.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | Marshall @ Georgia State | 30–18 | +12.8 | +9.5 | +12.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | App State @ James Madison | 10–58 | -29.4 | -21.0 | -48.0 | 18.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | South Alabama @ UL Monroe | 26–14 | +5.4 | +4.0 | +12.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Texas State @ Southern Miss | 41–14 | -12.8 | -3.0 | +27.0 | 39.8 |
| 2025 | 12 | North Texas @ UAB | 53–24 | +17.5 | +17.5 | +29.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | UTSA @ Charlotte | 28–7 | +14.6 | +17.0 | +21.0 | 6.4 |
| 2025 | 12 | Memphis @ East Carolina | 27–31 | -9.9 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 5.9 |
| 2025 | 12 | Florida Atlantic @ Tulane | 24–35 | -6.7 | -16.5 | -11.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | South Florida @ Navy | 38–41 | +19.7 | +8.5 | -3.0 | 22.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | Kent State @ Akron | 42–35 | -15.6 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 22.6 |
| 2025 | 12 | Ohio @ Western Michigan | 13–17 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -4.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Buffalo @ Central Michigan | 19–38 | -9.7 | -2.5 | -19.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts | 45–3 | +2.5 | +9.5 | +42.0 | 39.5 |
| 2025 | 12 | Toledo @ Miami (OH) | 24–3 | +2.5 | +5.5 | +21.0 | 18.5 |
| 2025 | 12 | Eastern Michigan @ Ball State | 24–9 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +15.0 | 12.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.