Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7 | Sam Houston @ New Mexico State | 13–27 | -11.2 | -4.0 | -14.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Arkansas @ Alabama | 21–24 | -16.5 | -19.5 | -3.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Troy @ Army | 19–0 | +16.4 | +6.5 | +19.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Missouri @ Kentucky | 38–21 | +2.0 | -2.0 | +17.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Auburn @ LSU | 18–48 | -15.0 | -11.0 | -30.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Illinois @ Maryland | 27–24 | -21.5 | -13.5 | +3.0 | 24.5 |
| 2023 | 7 | Indiana @ Michigan | 7–52 | -43.3 | -33.5 | -45.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Massachusetts @ Penn State | 0–63 | -41.5 | -42.0 | -63.0 | 21.5 |
| 2023 | 7 | Ohio State @ Purdue | 41–7 | +23.4 | +17.5 | +34.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Michigan State @ Rutgers | 24–27 | -12.5 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 9.5 |
| 2023 | 7 | Florida @ South Carolina | 41–39 | +0.8 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Texas A&M @ Tennessee | 13–20 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.5 |
| 2023 | 7 | Georgia @ Vanderbilt | 37–20 | +40.1 | +32.5 | +17.0 | 23.1 |
| 2023 | 7 | Iowa @ Wisconsin | 15–6 | -18.7 | -8.5 | +9.0 | 27.7 |
| 2023 | 7 | Stanford @ Colorado | 46–43 | -13.9 | -13.0 | +3.0 | 16.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | Arizona @ Washington State | 44–6 | -0.8 | -7.5 | +38.0 | 38.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | USC @ Notre Dame | 20–48 | -10.5 | -3.0 | -28.0 | 17.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | UCLA @ Oregon State | 24–36 | -3.4 | -3.5 | -12.0 | 8.6 |
| 2023 | 7 | California @ Utah | 14–34 | -13.6 | -9.5 | -20.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Oregon @ Washington | 33–36 | +3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 6.0 |
| 2023 | 7 | NC State @ Duke | 3–24 | -10.9 | -3.5 | -21.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Syracuse @ Florida State | 3–41 | -20.9 | -18.5 | -38.0 | 17.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Louisville @ Pittsburgh | 21–38 | +21.2 | +7.0 | -17.0 | 38.2 |
| 2023 | 7 | Miami @ North Carolina | 31–41 | -17.6 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 7.6 |
| 2023 | 7 | Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech | 13–30 | -4.0 | -1.5 | -17.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | West Virginia @ Houston | 39–41 | +3.4 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 5.4 |
| 2023 | 7 | Iowa State @ Cincinnati | 30–10 | +0.6 | -5.0 | +20.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Kansas @ Oklahoma State | 32–39 | +4.9 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 11.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | BYU @ TCU | 11–44 | -7.9 | -5.0 | -33.0 | 25.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Kansas State @ Texas Tech | 38–21 | -8.9 | -1.0 | +17.0 | 25.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | Tulane @ Memphis | 31–21 | -0.9 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 10.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | UAB @ UTSA | 20–41 | +4.9 | -9.0 | -21.0 | 25.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | Temple @ North Texas | 14–45 | -6.4 | -6.5 | -31.0 | 24.6 |
| 2023 | 7 | Navy @ Charlotte | 14–0 | -6.9 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 20.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | SMU @ East Carolina | 31–10 | +8.7 | +11.5 | +21.0 | 12.3 |
| 2023 | 7 | Florida Atlantic @ South Florida | 56–14 | -3.0 | -2.5 | +42.0 | 45.0 |
| 2023 | 7 | Coastal Carolina @ App State | 27–24 | +1.4 | -4.5 | +3.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Marshall @ Georgia State | 24–41 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -17.0 | 15.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Georgia Southern @ James Madison | 13–41 | -3.9 | -6.0 | -28.0 | 24.1 |
| 2023 | 7 | UL Monroe @ Texas State | 20–21 | -24.9 | -18.5 | -1.0 | 23.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | Toledo @ Ball State | 13–6 | +20.9 | +17.5 | +7.0 | 13.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | Akron @ Central Michigan | 10–17 | -4.9 | -10.5 | -7.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Bowling Green @ Buffalo | 24–14 | -4.6 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 14.6 |
| 2023 | 7 | Kent State @ Eastern Michigan | 14–28 | -2.2 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 11.8 |
| 2023 | 7 | Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan | 34–21 | +14.0 | +7.5 | +13.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Ohio @ Northern Illinois | 13–23 | +4.7 | +5.5 | -10.0 | 14.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Boise State @ Colorado State | 30–31 | +4.0 | +7.5 | -1.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | Fresno State @ Utah State | 37–32 | +0.1 | +5.5 | +5.0 | 4.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | San Diego State @ Hawai'i | 41–34 | +1.3 | +6.0 | +7.0 | 5.7 |
| 2023 | 7 | San José State @ New Mexico | 52–24 | -0.0 | +6.5 | +28.0 | 28.0 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.