Backtest History

3859 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	6	Colorado State @ Utah State	24–44	+5.0	+3.0	-20.0	25.0
2023	6	Fresno State @ Wyoming	19–24	+12.2	+6.0	-5.0	17.2
2023	6	San José State @ Boise State	27–35	-4.3	-8.0	-8.0	3.7
2023	5	Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston	35–28	+13.7	+6.5	+7.0	6.7
2023	5	Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky	10–31	-4.0	-6.5	-21.0	17.0
2023	5	Louisiana Tech @ UTEP	24–10	+4.3	+1.0	+14.0	9.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Texas A&M vs Arkansas	34–22	+6.4	+6.5	+12.0	5.6
2023	5	Georgia @ Auburn	27–20	+14.5	+14.0	+7.0	7.5
2023	5	Michigan State @ Iowa	16–26	-9.4	-12.0	-10.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Florida @ Kentucky	14–33	-0.0	-1.5	-19.0	19.0
2023	5	Indiana @ Maryland	17–44	-18.5	-14.0	-27.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Louisiana @ Minnesota	24–35	-1.3	-10.0	-11.0	9.7
2023	5	Alabama @ Mississippi State	40–17	+12.7	+14.5	+23.0	10.3
2023	5	Michigan @ Nebraska	45–7	+15.5	+17.0	+38.0	22.5
2023	5	Penn State @ Northwestern	41–13	+23.2	+27.0	+28.0	4.8
2023	5	LSU @ Ole Miss	49–55	+3.5	+3.0	-6.0	9.5
2023	5	Illinois @ Purdue	19–44	+4.2	-1.0	-25.0	29.2
2023	5	FCS @ Rutgers	3–52	-29.0	-46.0	-49.0	20.0
2023	5	South Carolina @ Tennessee	20–41	-9.8	-12.5	-21.0	11.2
2023	5	Utah State @ UConn	34–33	+4.2	+4.5	+1.0	3.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Missouri @ Vanderbilt	38–21	+15.3	+13.5	+17.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Utah @ Oregon State	7–21	-6.7	-3.5	-14.0	7.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Washington @ Arizona	31–24	+20.6	+20.0	+7.0	13.6
2023	5	Arizona State @ California	21–24	-4.9	-12.5	-3.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	USC @ Colorado	48–41	+14.2	+21.5	+7.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Oregon @ Stanford	42–6	+35.8	+27.0	+36.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Notre Dame @ Duke	21–14	+0.1	+5.5	+7.0	6.9
2023	5	Louisville @ NC State	13–10	+11.2	+3.5	+3.0	8.2
2023	5	Virginia @ Boston College	24–27	-6.9	-3.5	-3.0	3.9
2023	5	Clemson @ Syracuse	31–14	-0.0	+7.0	+17.0	17.0
2023	5	Bowling Green @ Georgia Tech	38–27	-21.6	-22.0	+11.0	32.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech	21–38	+3.0	+2.5	-17.0	20.0
2023	5	Cincinnati @ BYU	27–35	+3.1	-1.0	-8.0	11.1
2023	5	Iowa State @ Oklahoma	20–50	-27.2	-20.0	-30.0	2.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	West Virginia @ TCU	24–21	-14.1	-12.5	+3.0	17.1
2023	5	Kansas @ Texas	14–40	-17.4	-16.5	-26.0	8.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Houston @ Texas Tech	28–49	-7.8	-8.5	-21.0	13.2
2023	5	Baylor @ UCF	36–35	-10.2	-11.5	+1.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Arkansas State @ Massachusetts	52–28	-6.7	-1.5	+24.0	30.7
2023	5	Temple @ Tulsa	26–48	-0.1	-3.0	-22.0	21.9
2023	5	UAB @ Tulane	23–35	-8.9	-22.0	-12.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Charlotte @ SMU	16–34	-19.5	-23.5	-18.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	East Carolina @ Rice	17–24	-1.7	-3.5	-7.0	5.3
2023	5	South Florida @ Navy	44–30	-1.1	-4.0	+14.0	15.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Boise State @ Memphis	32–35	-7.4	-3.5	-3.0	4.4
2023	5	FCS @ North Texas	31–45	-20.5	-15.5	-14.0	6.5
2023	5	Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern	28–38	-4.2	-6.0	-10.0	5.8
2023	5	Troy @ Georgia State	28–7	-12.5	-1.0	+21.0	33.5
2023	5	South Alabama @ James Madison	23–31	-3.3	-3.0	-8.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Old Dominion @ Marshall	35–41	-19.9	-14.0	-6.0	13.9

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.