Backtest History

3859 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	2	FCS @ Clemson	17–66	-39.0	-50.5	-49.0	10.0
2023	2	FCS @ Duke	7–42	-38.3	-41.8	-35.0	3.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Southern Miss @ Florida State	13–66	-23.3	-31.0	-53.0	29.7
2023	2	FCS @ Georgia Tech	13–48	-30.1	-43.0	-35.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	App State @ North Carolina	34–40	-14.8	-19.5	-6.0	8.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh	27–21	-5.1	-6.5	+6.0	11.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Western Michigan @ Syracuse	7–48	-16.6	-24.5	-41.0	24.4
2023	2	James Madison @ Virginia	36–35	-0.9	+6.0	+1.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	UCF @ Boise State	18–16	+1.4	+3.0	+2.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ BYU	16–41	-26.4	-30.8	-25.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Troy @ Kansas State	13–42	-10.5	-15.0	-29.0	18.5
2023	2	SMU @ Oklahoma	11–28	-12.7	-16.5	-17.0	4.3
2023	2	Houston @ Rice	41–43	+9.6	+7.0	-2.0	11.6
2023	2	FCS @ TCU	6–41	-31.9	-41.5	-35.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ West Virginia	17–56	-30.4	-38.5	-39.0	8.6
2023	2	Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts	41–28	-4.2	+7.0	+13.0	17.2
2023	2	UAB @ Georgia Southern	35–49	+0.4	-7.0	-14.0	14.4
2023	2	Texas State @ UTSA	13–20	-14.3	-14.0	-7.0	7.3
2023	2	Marshall @ East Carolina	31–13	-1.4	+3.0	+18.0	19.4
2023	2	Ohio @ Florida Atlantic	17–10	-4.4	-3.5	+7.0	11.4
2023	2	FCS @ South Florida	24–38	-22.2	-20.0	-14.0	8.2
2023	2	Memphis @ Arkansas State	37–3	+17.6	+21.0	+34.0	16.4
2023	2	FCS @ Navy	0–24	-17.6	-42.8	-24.0	6.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Louisiana @ Old Dominion	31–38	+6.9	+6.0	-7.0	13.9
2023	2	FCS @ UL Monroe	14–24	-16.9	-26.0	-10.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ South Alabama	17–35	-24.8	-24.0	-18.0	6.8
2023	2	FCS @ Central Michigan	42–45	-15.9	-7.0	-3.0	12.9
2023	2	FCS @ Northern Illinois	14–11	-17.2	-6.8	+3.0	20.2
2023	2	FCS @ Toledo	3–71	-27.0	-39.3	-68.0	41.0
2023	2	FCS @ Akron	21–24	-24.6	-25.0	-3.0	21.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Bowling Green	15–38	-19.3	-17.0	-23.0	3.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Buffalo	40–37	-18.4	-23.5	+3.0	21.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Fresno State	31–34	-32.6	-31.5	-3.0	29.6
2023	2	FCS @ Hawai'i	20–31	-17.6	-10.5	-11.0	6.6
2023	2	FCS @ Nevada	33–6	-14.6	+4.0	+27.0	41.6
2023	2	FCS @ New Mexico	10–56	-12.2	-16.0	-46.0	33.8
2023	2	FCS @ San José State	3–59	-21.0	-23.0	-56.0	35.0
2023	2	FCS @ Utah State	28–78	-20.6	-24.0	-50.0	29.4
2023	2	FCS @ Wyoming	17–31	-22.5	-28.0	-14.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	15	Navy vs Army	17–20	+3.1	+2.5	-3.0	6.1
2022	14	UCF @ Tulane	28–45	-8.5	-3.5	-17.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Clemson vs North Carolina	39–10	+14.7	+7.3	+29.0	14.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Kansas State vs TCU	31–28	-1.8	+1.0	+3.0	4.8
2022	14	Purdue vs Michigan	22–43	-23.2	-15.8	-21.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	North Texas @ UTSA	27–48	-15.0	-8.5	-21.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Toledo vs Ohio	17–7	-13.0	+3.5	+10.0	23.0
2022	14	Fresno State @ Boise State	28–16	-2.7	-3.0	+12.0	14.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Utah vs USC	47–24	+2.3	-2.8	+23.0	20.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	LSU vs Georgia	30–50	-13.0	-17.0	-20.0	7.0
2022	14	Coastal Carolina @ Troy	26–45	-16.1	-6.5	-19.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.