Backtest History

3859 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2022	13	Toledo @ Western Michigan	14–20	+2.3	+8.5	-6.0	8.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Akron @ Northern Illinois	44–12	-9.9	-9.5	+32.0	41.9
2022	13	Kent State @ Buffalo	30–27	-5.5	-4.5	+3.0	8.5
2022	13	App State @ Georgia Southern	48–51	+5.2	+6.5	-3.0	8.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Coastal Carolina @ James Madison	7–47	-6.0	-15.5	-40.0	34.0
2022	13	Troy @ Arkansas State	48–19	+15.1	+13.5	+29.0	13.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Southern Miss @ UL Monroe	20–10	-0.0	+3.0	+10.0	10.0
2022	13	Louisiana @ Texas State	41–13	+1.2	+5.0	+28.0	26.8
2022	13	Old Dominion @ South Alabama	20–27	-25.7	-16.5	-7.0	18.7
2022	13	Georgia State @ Marshall	23–28	-2.8	-6.5	-5.0	2.2
2022	13	Middle Tennessee @ Florida International	33–28	+28.9	+19.5	+5.0	23.9
2022	13	Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic	32–31	+11.6	+7.5	+1.0	10.6
2022	13	UAB @ Louisiana Tech	37–27	+19.0	+18.0	+10.0	9.0
2022	13	Rice @ North Texas	17–21	-22.3	-14.5	-4.0	18.3
2022	13	UTEP @ UTSA	31–34	-25.8	-16.5	-3.0	22.8
2022	12	FCS @ Alabama	0–34	-50.8	-44.8	-34.0	16.8
2022	12	Ole Miss @ Arkansas	27–42	-0.9	0.0	-15.0	14.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Georgia @ Kentucky	16–6	+34.9	+22.5	+10.0	24.9
2022	12	FCS @ Mississippi State	7–56	-36.3	-39.0	-49.0	12.7
2022	12	New Mexico State @ Missouri	14–45	-5.4	-29.0	-31.0	25.6
2022	12	Tennessee @ South Carolina	38–63	+29.0	+22.5	-25.0	54.0
2022	12	Massachusetts @ Texas A&M	3–20	-21.9	-32.0	-17.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Florida @ Vanderbilt	24–31	+17.0	+14.0	-7.0	24.0
2022	12	Washington State @ Arizona	31–20	+2.3	+4.0	+11.0	8.7
2022	12	Oregon State @ Arizona State	31–7	+10.2	+7.5	+24.0	13.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Stanford @ California	20–27	-13.1	-5.0	-7.0	6.1
2022	12	Colorado @ Washington	7–54	-30.7	-30.5	-47.0	16.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Utah @ Oregon	17–20	-0.9	-1.0	-3.0	2.1
2022	12	USC @ UCLA	48–45	+1.2	+2.5	+3.0	1.8
2022	12	TCU @ Baylor	29–28	+5.3	+2.0	+1.0	4.3
2022	12	Texas Tech @ Iowa State	14–10	+8.8	-3.5	+4.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Texas @ Kansas	55–14	+5.2	+9.0	+41.0	35.8
2022	12	Kansas State @ West Virginia	48–31	+22.8	+8.0	+17.0	5.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma	13–28	-7.9	-7.0	-15.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Boston College @ Notre Dame	0–44	-16.2	-20.0	-44.0	27.8
2022	12	UConn @ Army	17–34	-6.7	-10.5	-17.0	10.3
2022	12	Virginia Tech @ Liberty	23–22	-16.5	-10.5	+1.0	17.5
2022	12	Iowa @ Minnesota	13–10	+2.7	-2.0	+3.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Wisconsin @ Nebraska	15–14	+8.9	+10.0	+1.0	7.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Northwestern @ Purdue	9–17	-10.1	-17.5	-8.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Ohio State @ Maryland	43–30	+24.8	+26.3	+13.0	11.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Illinois @ Michigan	17–19	-23.8	-17.0	-2.0	21.8
2022	12	Indiana @ Michigan State	39–31	-10.4	-12.0	+8.0	18.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Penn State @ Rutgers	55–10	+22.5	+18.5	+45.0	22.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Miami @ Clemson	10–40	-14.8	-19.0	-30.0	15.2
2022	12	Louisiana @ Florida State	17–49	-31.0	-25.0	-32.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	NC State @ Louisville	10–25	-18.9	-4.0	-15.0	3.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Georgia Tech @ North Carolina	21–17	-19.2	-21.3	+4.0	23.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	12	Duke @ Pittsburgh	26–28	-10.6	-6.5	-2.0	8.6
2022	12	Syracuse @ Wake Forest	35–45	-8.2	-9.5	-10.0	1.8

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.