Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 11 | Air Force @ Colorado State | 35–21 | -0.5 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 14.5 |
| 2021 | 11 | Wyoming @ Boise State | 13–23 | -21.8 | -13.8 | -10.0 | 11.8 |
| 2021 | 11 | New Mexico @ Fresno State | 7–34 | -19.4 | -24.0 | -27.0 | 7.6 |
| 2021 | 11 | Utah State @ San José State | 48–17 | -3.1 | -4.5 | +31.0 | 34.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 11 | Hawai'i @ UNLV | 13–27 | +2.2 | +3.5 | -14.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 11 | Nevada @ San Diego State | 21–23 | +3.1 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 5.1 |
| 2021 | 10 | LSU @ Alabama | 14–20 | -28.7 | -29.0 | -6.0 | 22.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Mississippi State @ Arkansas | 28–31 | +2.3 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 5.3 |
| 2021 | 10 | Missouri @ Georgia | 6–43 | -41.9 | -40.0 | -37.0 | 4.9 |
| 2021 | 10 | Tennessee @ Kentucky | 45–42 | +2.9 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Liberty @ Ole Miss | 14–27 | -12.2 | -7.5 | -13.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Florida @ South Carolina | 17–40 | +14.7 | +20.5 | -23.0 | 37.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Auburn @ Texas A&M | 3–20 | +0.5 | -4.5 | -17.0 | 17.5 |
| 2021 | 10 | Rice @ Charlotte | 24–31 | +3.4 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 10.4 |
| 2021 | 10 | Old Dominion @ Florida International | 47–24 | +11.5 | +3.0 | +23.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Marshall @ Florida Atlantic | 28–13 | +3.3 | +1.5 | +15.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Louisiana Tech @ UAB | 38–52 | -9.7 | -13.8 | -14.0 | 4.3 |
| 2021 | 10 | Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky | 21–48 | -8.5 | -17.5 | -27.0 | 18.5 |
| 2021 | 10 | North Texas @ Southern Miss | 38–14 | +10.6 | +5.3 | +24.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | UTSA @ UTEP | 44–23 | +8.8 | +11.5 | +21.0 | 12.2 |
| 2021 | 10 | Virginia Tech @ Boston College | 3–17 | +6.3 | +1.0 | -14.0 | 20.3 |
| 2021 | 10 | Pittsburgh @ Duke | 54–29 | +36.8 | +21.0 | +25.0 | 11.8 |
| 2021 | 10 | NC State @ Florida State | 28–14 | +3.8 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Clemson @ Louisville | 30–24 | +2.9 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 3.1 |
| 2021 | 10 | Georgia Tech @ Miami | 30–33 | -24.9 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 21.9 |
| 2021 | 10 | Wake Forest @ North Carolina | 55–58 | +8.4 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 11.4 |
| 2021 | 10 | Navy @ Notre Dame | 6–34 | -13.8 | -21.0 | -28.0 | 14.2 |
| 2021 | 10 | Illinois @ Minnesota | 14–6 | -18.6 | -14.5 | +8.0 | 26.6 |
| 2021 | 10 | Indiana @ Michigan | 7–29 | -21.9 | -20.5 | -22.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Iowa @ Northwestern | 17–12 | +9.0 | +11.8 | +5.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Penn State @ Maryland | 31–14 | +13.7 | +10.0 | +17.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Michigan State @ Purdue | 29–40 | -2.7 | +2.5 | -11.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Ohio State @ Nebraska | 26–17 | +13.8 | +14.0 | +9.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Wisconsin @ Rutgers | 52–3 | +17.6 | +13.0 | +49.0 | 31.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | FCS @ Massachusetts | 35–22 | +5.3 | -2.5 | +13.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Texas @ Iowa State | 7–30 | -5.4 | -6.0 | -23.0 | 17.6 |
| 2021 | 10 | Kansas State @ Kansas | 35–10 | +25.7 | +24.0 | +25.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Baylor @ TCU | 28–30 | +15.1 | +7.5 | -2.0 | 17.1 |
| 2021 | 10 | Oklahoma State @ West Virginia | 24–3 | +6.3 | +3.5 | +21.0 | 14.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Temple @ East Carolina | 3–45 | -29.4 | -15.5 | -42.0 | 12.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Tulane @ UCF | 10–14 | -18.0 | -13.5 | -4.0 | 14.0 |
| 2021 | 10 | Tulsa @ Cincinnati | 20–28 | -22.9 | -22.5 | -8.0 | 14.9 |
| 2021 | 10 | Houston @ South Florida | 54–42 | +21.4 | +13.5 | +12.0 | 9.4 |
| 2021 | 10 | SMU @ Memphis | 25–28 | +9.1 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 12.1 |
| 2021 | 10 | Miami (OH) @ Ohio | 33–35 | +15.4 | +7.0 | -2.0 | 17.4 |
| 2021 | 10 | Ball State @ Akron | 31–25 | +22.7 | +20.0 | +6.0 | 16.7 |
| 2021 | 10 | Eastern Michigan @ Toledo | 52–49 | -2.0 | -9.3 | +3.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Central Michigan @ Western Michigan | 42–30 | -10.6 | -9.0 | +12.0 | 22.6 |
| 2021 | 10 | Northern Illinois @ Kent State | 47–52 | +0.3 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 5.3 |
| 2021 | 10 | Georgia State @ Louisiana | 17–21 | -11.9 | -13.5 | -4.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.