Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11 | Texas State @ South Alabama | 21–38 | -18.0 | -16.0 | -17.0 | 1.0 |
| 2022 | 11 | Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee | 14–24 | -10.7 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 11 | Florida Atlantic @ Florida International | 52–7 | +7.5 | +15.3 | +45.0 | 37.5 |
| 2022 | 11 | Louisiana Tech @ UTSA | 7–51 | -16.6 | -17.0 | -44.0 | 27.4 |
| 2022 | 11 | North Texas @ UAB | 21–41 | +9.0 | -6.5 | -20.0 | 29.0 |
| 2022 | 11 | Rice @ Western Kentucky | 10–45 | -28.8 | -13.5 | -35.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Liberty @ Arkansas | 21–19 | -10.4 | -14.5 | +2.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Tennessee @ Georgia | 13–27 | -3.8 | -9.8 | -14.0 | 10.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | Alabama @ LSU | 31–32 | +5.2 | +13.5 | -1.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Auburn @ Mississippi State | 33–39 | -14.2 | -12.5 | -6.0 | 8.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | Kentucky @ Missouri | 21–17 | -4.0 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 8.0 |
| 2022 | 10 | Florida @ Texas A&M | 41–24 | -4.5 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 21.5 |
| 2022 | 10 | South Carolina @ Vanderbilt | 38–27 | +5.2 | +6.5 | +11.0 | 5.8 |
| 2022 | 10 | Arizona @ Utah | 20–45 | -20.8 | -17.8 | -25.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | UCLA @ Arizona State | 50–36 | +9.3 | +11.0 | +14.0 | 4.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | California @ USC | 35–41 | -20.0 | -21.0 | -6.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Oregon @ Colorado | 49–10 | +29.8 | +31.0 | +39.0 | 9.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | Oregon State @ Washington | 21–24 | +4.0 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 7.0 |
| 2022 | 10 | Washington State @ Stanford | 52–14 | +6.0 | +3.0 | +38.0 | 32.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Baylor @ Oklahoma | 38–35 | +7.3 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | West Virginia @ Iowa State | 14–31 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 11.5 |
| 2022 | 10 | Oklahoma State @ Kansas | 16–37 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Texas @ Kansas State | 34–27 | -14.8 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 21.8 |
| 2022 | 10 | Texas Tech @ TCU | 24–34 | -10.2 | -8.5 | -10.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Clemson @ Notre Dame | 14–35 | +0.7 | +3.5 | -21.0 | 21.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Air Force vs Army | 13–7 | +4.3 | +7.0 | +6.0 | 1.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | Massachusetts @ UConn | 10–27 | -19.9 | -15.0 | -17.0 | 2.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | Michigan State @ Illinois | 23–15 | -17.9 | -16.0 | +8.0 | 25.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | Minnesota @ Nebraska | 20–13 | +2.9 | +14.5 | +7.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Ohio State @ Northwestern | 21–7 | +41.9 | +37.5 | +14.0 | 27.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | Iowa @ Purdue | 24–3 | -0.9 | -3.5 | +21.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Maryland @ Wisconsin | 10–23 | -9.1 | -5.0 | -13.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Penn State @ Indiana | 45–14 | +20.1 | +13.5 | +31.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Michigan @ Rutgers | 52–17 | +32.1 | +26.5 | +35.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Duke @ Boston College | 38–31 | +11.0 | +12.0 | +7.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | James Madison @ Louisville | 10–34 | -22.1 | -6.5 | -24.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Florida State @ Miami | 45–3 | +14.5 | +6.5 | +42.0 | 27.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Wake Forest @ NC State | 21–30 | +8.0 | +3.0 | -9.0 | 17.0 |
| 2022 | 10 | Syracuse @ Pittsburgh | 9–19 | +2.3 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 12.3 |
| 2022 | 10 | North Carolina @ Virginia | 31–28 | +9.9 | +7.3 | +3.0 | 6.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech | 28–27 | -1.6 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | BYU @ Boise State | 31–28 | -20.0 | -9.5 | +3.0 | 23.0 |
| 2022 | 10 | Colorado State @ San José State | 16–28 | -20.6 | -24.0 | -12.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | New Mexico @ Utah State | 10–27 | -14.4 | -14.5 | -17.0 | 2.6 |
| 2022 | 10 | Hawai'i @ Fresno State | 13–55 | -15.3 | -27.5 | -42.0 | 26.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | UNLV @ San Diego State | 10–14 | -13.2 | -5.0 | -4.0 | 9.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | South Florida @ Temple | 28–54 | +7.4 | +3.5 | -26.0 | 33.4 |
| 2022 | 10 | Tulane @ Tulsa | 27–13 | +16.4 | +6.5 | +14.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Navy @ Cincinnati | 10–20 | -15.9 | -18.5 | -10.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | UCF @ Memphis | 35–28 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 6.8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.