Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 11 | Eastern Michigan @ Toledo | 23–49 | -23.9 | -19.5 | -26.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | Akron @ Miami (OH) | 0–19 | -27.7 | -17.0 | -19.0 | 8.7 |
| 2023 | 11 | Bowling Green @ Kent State | 49–19 | +15.0 | +10.5 | +30.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | Air Force @ Hawai'i | 13–27 | +11.8 | +20.5 | -14.0 | 25.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | Fresno State @ San José State | 18–42 | -4.3 | -2.5 | -24.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | Nevada @ Utah State | 24–41 | -19.9 | -14.5 | -17.0 | 2.9 |
| 2023 | 11 | New Mexico @ Boise State | 14–42 | -26.6 | -27.5 | -28.0 | 1.4 |
| 2023 | 11 | San Diego State @ Colorado State | 19–22 | -7.2 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 4.2 |
| 2023 | 11 | Wyoming @ UNLV | 14–34 | -13.7 | -2.5 | -20.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Army vs Air Force | 23–3 | -29.6 | -18.0 | +20.0 | 49.6 |
| 2023 | 10 | LSU @ Alabama | 28–42 | +7.1 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 21.1 |
| 2023 | 10 | Arkansas @ Florida | 39–36 | -0.1 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Missouri @ Georgia | 21–30 | -9.1 | -14.5 | -9.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Wisconsin @ Indiana | 14–20 | +7.2 | +9.5 | -6.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Louisiana Tech @ Liberty | 30–56 | -16.7 | -14.5 | -26.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Penn State @ Maryland | 51–15 | +14.1 | +8.5 | +36.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Purdue @ Michigan | 13–41 | -40.3 | -32.5 | -28.0 | 12.3 |
| 2023 | 10 | Nebraska @ Michigan State | 17–20 | +8.8 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 11.8 |
| 2023 | 10 | Illinois @ Minnesota | 27–26 | -6.0 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 7.0 |
| 2023 | 10 | Kentucky @ Mississippi State | 24–3 | +2.4 | +5.5 | +21.0 | 18.6 |
| 2023 | 10 | Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State | 7–13 | -9.3 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 3.3 |
| 2023 | 10 | Iowa vs Northwestern | 10–7 | +4.7 | +5.0 | +3.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Texas A&M @ Ole Miss | 35–38 | -4.9 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2023 | 10 | Ohio State @ Rutgers | 35–16 | +15.7 | +19.0 | +19.0 | 3.3 |
| 2023 | 10 | Jacksonville State @ South Carolina | 28–38 | -4.9 | -15.5 | -10.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | UConn @ Tennessee | 3–59 | -25.4 | -35.5 | -56.0 | 30.6 |
| 2023 | 10 | Western Kentucky @ UTEP | 21–13 | +7.7 | +9.5 | +8.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Auburn @ Vanderbilt | 31–15 | +15.2 | +12.5 | +16.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | FCS @ Massachusetts | 21–31 | -6.5 | -16.5 | -10.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | UCLA @ Arizona | 10–27 | -4.1 | +2.5 | -17.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Oregon State @ Colorado | 26–19 | +18.0 | +13.5 | +7.0 | 11.0 |
| 2023 | 10 | California @ Oregon | 19–63 | -31.5 | -25.5 | -44.0 | 12.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Washington @ USC | 52–42 | +4.6 | +3.0 | +10.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Arizona State @ Utah | 3–55 | +0.2 | -10.5 | -52.0 | 52.2 |
| 2023 | 10 | Stanford @ Washington State | 10–7 | -2.8 | -13.5 | +3.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Notre Dame @ Clemson | 23–31 | +18.7 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 26.7 |
| 2023 | 10 | FCS @ Sam Houston | 21–24 | -4.0 | -16.5 | -3.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Wake Forest @ Duke | 21–24 | -14.6 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 11.6 |
| 2023 | 10 | Boston College @ Syracuse | 17–10 | +10.6 | -0.5 | +7.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Florida State @ Pittsburgh | 24–7 | +19.5 | +21.5 | +17.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Georgia Tech @ Virginia | 45–17 | -8.1 | -1.5 | +28.0 | 36.1 |
| 2023 | 10 | Virginia Tech @ Louisville | 3–34 | -8.0 | -9.8 | -31.0 | 23.0 |
| 2023 | 10 | Miami @ NC State | 6–20 | +2.2 | +6.0 | -14.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | FCS @ North Carolina | 7–59 | -26.6 | -45.5 | -52.0 | 25.4 |
| 2023 | 10 | TCU @ Texas Tech | 28–35 | +1.8 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 8.8 |
| 2023 | 10 | Houston @ Baylor | 25–24 | +3.5 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | UCF @ Cincinnati | 28–26 | +6.1 | +3.5 | +2.0 | 4.1 |
| 2023 | 10 | Kansas @ Iowa State | 28–21 | +0.6 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State | 24–27 | -4.8 | +6.0 | -3.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | Kansas State @ Texas | 30–33 | +8.7 | -3.8 | -3.0 | 11.7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.