Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11 | Mississippi State @ Tennessee | 14–33 | -25.2 | -26.5 | -19.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Florida @ Texas | 17–49 | -8.7 | -23.0 | -32.0 | 23.3 |
| 2024 | 11 | South Carolina @ Vanderbilt | 28–7 | +12.5 | +6.0 | +21.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Michigan @ Indiana | 15–20 | -29.8 | -14.5 | -5.0 | 24.8 |
| 2024 | 11 | Iowa @ UCLA | 17–20 | +5.8 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Maryland @ Oregon | 18–39 | -33.4 | -24.0 | -21.0 | 12.4 |
| 2024 | 11 | Minnesota @ Rutgers | 19–26 | +14.4 | +6.5 | -7.0 | 21.4 |
| 2024 | 11 | Purdue @ Ohio State | 0–45 | -42.5 | -37.5 | -45.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Washington @ Penn State | 6–35 | -7.8 | -13.5 | -29.0 | 21.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | Florida State @ Notre Dame | 3–52 | -33.0 | -25.5 | -49.0 | 16.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | UConn @ UAB | 31–23 | +2.6 | +7.5 | +8.0 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 11 | Army @ North Texas | 14–3 | +1.5 | +6.5 | +11.0 | 9.5 |
| 2024 | 11 | California @ Wake Forest | 46–36 | +14.5 | +7.0 | +10.0 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | 11 | Syracuse @ Boston College | 31–37 | -0.5 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 5.5 |
| 2024 | 11 | Clemson @ Virginia Tech | 24–14 | +0.5 | +5.5 | +10.0 | 9.5 |
| 2024 | 11 | Duke @ NC State | 29–19 | -1.7 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Miami @ Georgia Tech | 23–28 | +5.3 | +9.5 | -5.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Virginia @ Pittsburgh | 24–19 | -20.6 | -7.5 | +5.0 | 25.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | UCF @ Arizona State | 31–35 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -4.0 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | 11 | West Virginia @ Cincinnati | 31–24 | -14.2 | -5.5 | +7.0 | 21.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | Iowa State vs Kansas | 36–45 | -7.8 | +2.5 | -9.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Oklahoma State @ TCU | 13–38 | -15.4 | -10.5 | -25.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Colorado @ Texas Tech | 41–27 | +6.1 | +4.5 | +14.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | BYU @ Utah | 22–21 | +7.3 | +3.0 | +1.0 | 6.3 |
| 2024 | 11 | Liberty @ Middle Tennessee | 37–17 | +4.3 | +12.5 | +20.0 | 15.7 |
| 2024 | 11 | Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech | 44–37 | +18.7 | +10.0 | +7.0 | 11.7 |
| 2024 | 11 | Kennesaw State @ UTEP | 35–43 | -5.9 | -4.5 | -8.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State | 41–28 | +27.4 | +18.0 | +13.0 | 14.4 |
| 2024 | 11 | Fresno State @ Air Force | 28–36 | +9.2 | +9.5 | -8.0 | 17.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Nevada @ Boise State | 21–28 | -34.3 | -23.5 | -7.0 | 27.3 |
| 2024 | 11 | UNLV @ Hawai'i | 29–27 | +8.1 | +12.5 | +2.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | New Mexico @ San Diego State | 21–16 | -8.9 | -1.5 | +5.0 | 13.9 |
| 2024 | 11 | San José State @ Oregon State | 24–13 | +0.4 | -3.0 | +11.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Utah State @ Washington State | 28–49 | -21.2 | -20.5 | -21.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | App State @ Coastal Carolina | 24–38 | +11.2 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 25.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | Georgia State @ James Madison | 7–38 | -9.1 | -14.5 | -31.0 | 21.9 |
| 2024 | 11 | Arkansas State @ Louisiana | 19–55 | -16.7 | -14.0 | -36.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Texas State @ UL Monroe | 38–17 | +2.4 | +9.5 | +21.0 | 18.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | Marshall @ Southern Miss | 37–3 | +13.5 | +13.5 | +34.0 | 20.5 |
| 2024 | 11 | Miami (OH) @ Ball State | 27–21 | +15.4 | +13.0 | +6.0 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | 11 | Bowling Green @ Central Michigan | 23–13 | +12.0 | +15.5 | +10.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Ohio @ Kent State | 41–0 | +25.7 | +20.5 | +41.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan | 42–28 | -2.0 | +2.0 | +14.0 | 16.0 |
| 2024 | 11 | Florida Atlantic @ East Carolina | 14–49 | -15.7 | -7.5 | -35.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Rice @ Memphis | 20–27 | -0.2 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 6.8 |
| 2024 | 11 | Navy @ South Florida | 28–7 | +1.9 | +4.5 | +21.0 | 19.1 |
| 2024 | 11 | Temple @ Tulane | 6–52 | -36.3 | -25.5 | -46.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Ole Miss @ Arkansas | 63–31 | -2.5 | +8.0 | +32.0 | 34.5 |
| 2024 | 10 | Vanderbilt @ Auburn | 17–7 | -10.9 | -7.5 | +10.0 | 20.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | Florida vs Georgia | 20–34 | -7.5 | -14.5 | -14.0 | 6.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.