Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11 | LSU @ Alabama | 9–20 | -19.9 | -10.0 | -11.0 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | 11 | Florida @ Kentucky | 7–38 | +3.1 | +4.5 | -31.0 | 34.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | FCS @ Ole Miss | 0–49 | -54.0 | -51.5 | -49.0 | 5.0 |
| 2025 | 11 | Georgia @ Mississippi State | 41–21 | +10.9 | +9.5 | +20.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Texas A&M @ Missouri | 38–17 | +3.9 | +7.0 | +21.0 | 17.1 |
| 2025 | 11 | Auburn @ Vanderbilt | 38–45 | -9.3 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | Indiana @ Penn State | 27–24 | +19.0 | +14.0 | +3.0 | 16.0 |
| 2025 | 11 | Maryland @ Rutgers | 20–35 | +1.3 | -1.5 | -15.0 | 16.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | Nebraska @ UCLA | 28–21 | -1.6 | -2.0 | +7.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Northwestern @ USC | 17–38 | -16.7 | -14.5 | -21.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Ohio State @ Purdue | 34–10 | +31.8 | +29.5 | +24.0 | 7.8 |
| 2025 | 11 | Oregon @ Iowa | 18–16 | +1.4 | +4.5 | +2.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Washington @ Wisconsin | 10–13 | +13.0 | +10.5 | -3.0 | 16.0 |
| 2025 | 11 | Sam Houston @ Oregon State | 21–17 | -28.6 | -21.0 | +4.0 | 32.6 |
| 2025 | 11 | SMU @ Boston College | 45–13 | +17.0 | +10.5 | +32.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | California @ Louisville | 29–26 | -23.3 | -18.5 | +3.0 | 26.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | Florida State @ Clemson | 10–24 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -14.0 | 13.7 |
| 2025 | 11 | Syracuse @ Miami | 10–38 | -32.3 | -28.5 | -28.0 | 4.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | Stanford @ North Carolina | 15–20 | -11.5 | -8.5 | -5.0 | 6.5 |
| 2025 | 11 | Wake Forest @ Virginia | 16–9 | -11.3 | -7.0 | +7.0 | 18.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | Duke @ UConn | 34–37 | +3.7 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Kansas @ Arizona | 20–24 | -17.2 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 13.2 |
| 2025 | 11 | Iowa State @ TCU | 20–17 | -6.6 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | BYU @ Texas Tech | 7–29 | -9.1 | -13.5 | -22.0 | 12.9 |
| 2025 | 11 | Houston @ UCF | 30–27 | -6.8 | -1.5 | +3.0 | 9.8 |
| 2025 | 11 | Colorado @ West Virginia | 22–29 | -12.5 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 5.5 |
| 2025 | 11 | Navy @ Notre Dame | 10–49 | -30.7 | -30.5 | -39.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Louisiana Tech @ Delaware | 24–25 | +11.4 | +5.5 | -1.0 | 12.4 |
| 2025 | 11 | Florida International @ Middle Tennessee | 56–30 | +2.2 | -1.5 | +26.0 | 23.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Jacksonville State @ UTEP | 30–27 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State | 24–21 | +11.2 | +11.5 | +3.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Missouri State @ Liberty | 21–17 | -7.3 | -7.5 | +4.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Air Force @ San José State | 26–16 | -9.3 | -6.0 | +10.0 | 19.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | UNLV @ Colorado State | 42–10 | -3.0 | +5.5 | +32.0 | 35.0 |
| 2025 | 11 | San Diego State @ Hawai'i | 6–38 | +14.8 | +6.5 | -32.0 | 46.8 |
| 2025 | 11 | Nevada @ Utah State | 14–51 | -7.0 | -10.0 | -37.0 | 30.0 |
| 2025 | 11 | Georgia Southern @ App State | 25–23 | -9.6 | -4.5 | +2.0 | 11.6 |
| 2025 | 11 | Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina | 27–40 | -15.9 | -7.0 | -13.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | James Madison @ Marshall | 35–23 | +16.3 | +13.5 | +12.0 | 4.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | Southern Miss @ Arkansas State | 27–21 | -2.2 | +6.5 | +6.0 | 8.2 |
| 2025 | 11 | Texas State @ Louisiana | 39–42 | -3.7 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | UTSA @ South Florida | 23–55 | -21.4 | -14.0 | -32.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Tulane @ Memphis | 38–32 | -15.2 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 21.2 |
| 2025 | 11 | UAB @ Rice | 17–24 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 6.5 |
| 2025 | 11 | Temple @ Army | 13–14 | -12.4 | -7.0 | -1.0 | 11.4 |
| 2025 | 11 | Charlotte @ East Carolina | 22–48 | -41.2 | -28.0 | -26.0 | 15.2 |
| 2025 | 11 | Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic | 21–40 | -7.9 | -4.5 | -19.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Massachusetts @ Akron | 10–44 | -22.0 | -12.5 | -34.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Miami (OH) @ Ohio | 20–24 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -4.0 | 2.8 |
| 2025 | 11 | Kent State @ Ball State | 13–17 | -9.2 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 5.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.