Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10 | Florida @ Texas A&M | 41–24 | -4.5 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 21.5 |
| 2022 | 10 | South Carolina @ Vanderbilt | 38–27 | +5.2 | +6.5 | +11.0 | 5.8 |
| 2022 | 10 | Arizona @ Utah | 20–45 | -20.8 | -17.8 | -25.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | UCLA @ Arizona State | 50–36 | +9.3 | +11.0 | +14.0 | 4.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | California @ USC | 35–41 | -20.0 | -21.0 | -6.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Oregon @ Colorado | 49–10 | +29.8 | +31.0 | +39.0 | 9.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | Oregon State @ Washington | 21–24 | +4.0 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 7.0 |
| 2022 | 10 | Washington State @ Stanford | 52–14 | +6.0 | +3.0 | +38.0 | 32.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Baylor @ Oklahoma | 38–35 | +7.3 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | West Virginia @ Iowa State | 14–31 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 11.5 |
| 2022 | 10 | Oklahoma State @ Kansas | 16–37 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Texas @ Kansas State | 34–27 | -14.8 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 21.8 |
| 2022 | 10 | Texas Tech @ TCU | 24–34 | -10.2 | -8.5 | -10.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Clemson @ Notre Dame | 14–35 | +0.7 | +3.5 | -21.0 | 21.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Air Force vs Army | 13–7 | +4.3 | +7.0 | +6.0 | 1.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | Massachusetts @ UConn | 10–27 | -19.9 | -15.0 | -17.0 | 2.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | Michigan State @ Illinois | 23–15 | -17.9 | -16.0 | +8.0 | 25.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | Minnesota @ Nebraska | 20–13 | +2.9 | +14.5 | +7.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Ohio State @ Northwestern | 21–7 | +41.9 | +37.5 | +14.0 | 27.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | Iowa @ Purdue | 24–3 | -0.9 | -3.5 | +21.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Maryland @ Wisconsin | 10–23 | -9.1 | -5.0 | -13.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Penn State @ Indiana | 45–14 | +20.1 | +13.5 | +31.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Michigan @ Rutgers | 52–17 | +32.1 | +26.5 | +35.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Duke @ Boston College | 38–31 | +11.0 | +12.0 | +7.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | James Madison @ Louisville | 10–34 | -22.1 | -6.5 | -24.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Florida State @ Miami | 45–3 | +14.5 | +6.5 | +42.0 | 27.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Wake Forest @ NC State | 21–30 | +8.0 | +3.0 | -9.0 | 17.0 |
| 2022 | 10 | Syracuse @ Pittsburgh | 9–19 | +2.3 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 12.3 |
| 2022 | 10 | North Carolina @ Virginia | 31–28 | +9.9 | +7.3 | +3.0 | 6.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech | 28–27 | -1.6 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | BYU @ Boise State | 31–28 | -20.0 | -9.5 | +3.0 | 23.0 |
| 2022 | 10 | Colorado State @ San José State | 16–28 | -20.6 | -24.0 | -12.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | New Mexico @ Utah State | 10–27 | -14.4 | -14.5 | -17.0 | 2.6 |
| 2022 | 10 | Hawai'i @ Fresno State | 13–55 | -15.3 | -27.5 | -42.0 | 26.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | UNLV @ San Diego State | 10–14 | -13.2 | -5.0 | -4.0 | 9.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | South Florida @ Temple | 28–54 | +7.4 | +3.5 | -26.0 | 33.4 |
| 2022 | 10 | Tulane @ Tulsa | 27–13 | +16.4 | +6.5 | +14.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Navy @ Cincinnati | 10–20 | -15.9 | -18.5 | -10.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | UCF @ Memphis | 35–28 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 6.8 |
| 2022 | 10 | Houston @ SMU | 63–77 | +7.3 | -3.5 | -14.0 | 21.3 |
| 2022 | 10 | Ball State @ Kent State | 27–20 | -4.4 | -7.0 | +7.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | Buffalo @ Ohio | 24–45 | +10.8 | +2.5 | -21.0 | 31.8 |
| 2022 | 10 | Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois | 35–22 | -15.6 | -4.5 | +13.0 | 28.6 |
| 2022 | 10 | Western Michigan @ Bowling Green | 9–13 | -11.2 | -5.0 | -4.0 | 7.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | App State @ Coastal Carolina | 28–35 | +7.7 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 14.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | South Alabama @ Georgia Southern | 38–31 | +2.7 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 4.3 |
| 2022 | 10 | Marshall @ Old Dominion | 12–0 | -4.7 | +3.5 | +12.0 | 16.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | Troy @ Louisiana | 23–17 | +11.2 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 5.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | Texas State @ UL Monroe | 30–31 | +12.2 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 13.2 |
| 2022 | 10 | Georgia State @ Southern Miss | 42–14 | -4.2 | -2.0 | +28.0 | 32.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.