Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9 | UAB @ Florida Atlantic | 17–24 | +6.5 | +4.8 | -7.0 | 13.5 |
| 2022 | 9 | Middle Tennessee @ UTEP | 24–13 | -4.7 | -2.5 | +11.0 | 15.7 |
| 2022 | 9 | North Texas @ Western Kentucky | 40–13 | -10.1 | -10.0 | +27.0 | 37.1 |
| 2022 | 8 | Mississippi State @ Alabama | 6–30 | -13.4 | -21.3 | -24.0 | 10.6 |
| 2022 | 8 | Ole Miss @ LSU | 20–45 | +0.5 | 0.0 | -25.0 | 25.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | Vanderbilt @ Missouri | 14–17 | -16.9 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 13.9 |
| 2022 | 8 | Texas A&M @ South Carolina | 24–30 | -1.6 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | FCS @ Tennessee | 24–65 | -47.4 | -38.8 | -41.0 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | 8 | Arizona State @ Stanford | 14–15 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 4.6 |
| 2022 | 8 | Washington @ California | 28–21 | +11.4 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 4.4 |
| 2022 | 8 | Colorado @ Oregon State | 9–42 | -23.0 | -23.0 | -33.0 | 10.0 |
| 2022 | 8 | UCLA @ Oregon | 30–45 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -15.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Kansas @ Baylor | 23–35 | -10.9 | -10.5 | -12.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Kansas State @ TCU | 28–38 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 8.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | Texas @ Oklahoma State | 34–41 | +7.7 | +6.5 | -7.0 | 14.7 |
| 2022 | 8 | West Virginia @ Texas Tech | 10–48 | -7.6 | -5.0 | -38.0 | 30.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | UNLV @ Notre Dame | 21–44 | -21.9 | -26.0 | -23.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | UL Monroe @ Army | 24–48 | -2.8 | -6.5 | -24.0 | 21.2 |
| 2022 | 8 | BYU @ Liberty | 14–41 | +1.9 | +7.0 | -27.0 | 28.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Purdue @ Wisconsin | 24–35 | +1.4 | -1.5 | -11.0 | 12.4 |
| 2022 | 8 | Northwestern @ Maryland | 24–31 | -29.7 | -14.3 | -7.0 | 22.7 |
| 2022 | 8 | Iowa @ Ohio State | 10–54 | -26.4 | -29.8 | -44.0 | 17.6 |
| 2022 | 8 | Minnesota @ Penn State | 17–45 | -0.8 | -5.5 | -28.0 | 27.2 |
| 2022 | 8 | Indiana @ Rutgers | 17–24 | -0.5 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 6.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | Virginia @ Georgia Tech | 16–9 | -12.1 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 19.1 |
| 2022 | 8 | Syracuse @ Clemson | 21–27 | -7.7 | -14.0 | -6.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Pittsburgh @ Louisville | 10–24 | -10.7 | -1.5 | -14.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Duke @ Miami | 45–21 | -6.2 | -10.0 | +24.0 | 30.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Boston College @ Wake Forest | 15–43 | -22.7 | -20.0 | -28.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Boise State @ Air Force | 19–14 | -3.7 | -2.3 | +5.0 | 8.7 |
| 2022 | 8 | Hawai'i @ Colorado State | 13–17 | +3.5 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 7.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | Fresno State @ New Mexico | 41–9 | +13.9 | +9.8 | +32.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Utah State @ Wyoming | 14–28 | +1.5 | -5.3 | -14.0 | 15.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | San Diego State @ Nevada | 23–7 | +12.1 | +7.3 | +16.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Tulsa @ Temple | 27–16 | +2.3 | +13.5 | +11.0 | 8.7 |
| 2022 | 8 | Memphis @ Tulane | 28–38 | -10.7 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Houston @ Navy | 38–20 | +1.4 | +3.0 | +18.0 | 16.6 |
| 2022 | 8 | Cincinnati @ SMU | 29–27 | +1.9 | +3.5 | +2.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | UCF @ East Carolina | 13–34 | +14.4 | +5.5 | -21.0 | 35.4 |
| 2022 | 8 | Eastern Michigan @ Ball State | 20–16 | -9.1 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 13.1 |
| 2022 | 8 | Northern Illinois @ Ohio | 17–24 | +9.9 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 16.9 |
| 2022 | 8 | Toledo @ Buffalo | 27–34 | +4.6 | +7.0 | -7.0 | 11.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) | 16–10 | -14.9 | -7.0 | +6.0 | 20.9 |
| 2022 | 8 | Akron @ Kent State | 27–33 | -22.0 | -15.8 | -6.0 | 16.0 |
| 2022 | 8 | Bowling Green @ Central Michigan | 34–18 | -7.2 | -6.0 | +16.0 | 23.2 |
| 2022 | 8 | Georgia State @ App State | 17–42 | -0.3 | -9.5 | -25.0 | 24.7 |
| 2022 | 8 | Troy @ South Alabama | 10–6 | +2.4 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | Marshall @ James Madison | 26–12 | -21.3 | -9.5 | +14.0 | 35.3 |
| 2022 | 8 | Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion | 28–23 | -1.9 | -1.5 | +5.0 | 6.9 |
| 2022 | 8 | Arkansas State @ Louisiana | 18–38 | -6.5 | -6.3 | -20.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.