Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7 | James Madison @ Georgia Southern | 38–45 | +17.5 | +13.0 | -7.0 | 24.5 |
| 2022 | 7 | UL Monroe @ South Alabama | 34–41 | -19.7 | -17.0 | -7.0 | 12.7 |
| 2022 | 7 | Arkansas State @ Southern Miss | 19–20 | -9.4 | -4.5 | -1.0 | 8.4 |
| 2022 | 7 | Texas State @ Troy | 14–17 | -10.0 | -16.5 | -3.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 7 | Charlotte @ UAB | 20–34 | -35.8 | -22.3 | -14.0 | 21.8 |
| 2022 | 7 | UTSA @ Florida International | 30–10 | +29.0 | +33.5 | +20.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 7 | Rice @ Florida Atlantic | 14–17 | +3.8 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 6.8 |
| 2022 | 7 | Louisiana Tech @ North Texas | 27–47 | -6.0 | -6.5 | -20.0 | 14.0 |
| 2022 | 7 | Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee | 35–17 | +11.1 | +7.5 | +18.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Texas A&M @ Alabama | 20–24 | -32.4 | -24.0 | -4.0 | 28.4 |
| 2022 | 6 | Missouri @ Florida | 17–24 | -5.1 | -10.8 | -7.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Auburn @ Georgia | 10–42 | -19.8 | -27.5 | -32.0 | 12.2 |
| 2022 | 6 | South Carolina @ Kentucky | 24–14 | -7.4 | -4.5 | +10.0 | 17.4 |
| 2022 | 6 | Tennessee @ LSU | 40–13 | -4.5 | +2.5 | +27.0 | 31.5 |
| 2022 | 6 | Arkansas @ Mississippi State | 17–40 | -14.7 | -8.5 | -23.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt | 52–28 | +12.6 | +17.0 | +24.0 | 11.4 |
| 2022 | 6 | Oregon @ Arizona | 49–22 | +19.3 | +13.5 | +27.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Washington @ Arizona State | 38–45 | +12.4 | +13.5 | -7.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Oregon State @ Stanford | 28–27 | +4.8 | +4.5 | +1.0 | 3.8 |
| 2022 | 6 | Utah @ UCLA | 32–42 | +6.7 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 16.7 |
| 2022 | 6 | Washington State @ USC | 14–30 | -5.6 | -12.5 | -16.0 | 10.4 |
| 2022 | 6 | Kansas State @ Iowa State | 10–9 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +1.0 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 6 | TCU @ Kansas | 38–31 | +11.6 | +7.0 | +7.0 | 4.6 |
| 2022 | 6 | Texas vs Oklahoma | 49–0 | +13.8 | +7.5 | +49.0 | 35.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State | 31–41 | -8.6 | -11.5 | -10.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | BYU vs Notre Dame | 20–28 | -8.7 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Army @ Wake Forest | 10–45 | -26.3 | -16.0 | -35.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Liberty @ Massachusetts | 42–24 | +20.4 | +22.5 | +18.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Iowa @ Illinois | 6–9 | -8.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 5.1 |
| 2022 | 6 | Wisconsin @ Northwestern | 42–7 | +6.2 | +10.0 | +35.0 | 28.8 |
| 2022 | 6 | Michigan @ Indiana | 31–10 | +24.3 | +23.5 | +21.0 | 3.3 |
| 2022 | 6 | Purdue @ Maryland | 31–29 | -3.0 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Ohio State @ Michigan State | 49–20 | +26.4 | +27.0 | +29.0 | 2.6 |
| 2022 | 6 | Nebraska @ Rutgers | 14–13 | +0.3 | +3.0 | +1.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Clemson @ Boston College | 31–3 | +16.4 | +21.0 | +28.0 | 11.6 |
| 2022 | 6 | Duke @ Georgia Tech | 20–23 | +5.3 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 8.3 |
| 2022 | 6 | North Carolina @ Miami | 27–24 | +6.5 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Florida State @ NC State | 17–19 | -8.8 | -3.5 | -2.0 | 6.8 |
| 2022 | 6 | Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh | 29–45 | -17.2 | -14.5 | -16.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Louisville @ Virginia | 34–17 | +6.5 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Air Force @ Utah State | 27–34 | +10.1 | +11.5 | -7.0 | 17.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Fresno State @ Boise State | 20–40 | -11.6 | -10.5 | -20.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Colorado State @ Nevada | 17–14 | -12.1 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 15.1 |
| 2022 | 6 | Wyoming @ New Mexico | 27–14 | -4.9 | +3.0 | +13.0 | 17.9 |
| 2022 | 6 | Hawai'i @ San Diego State | 14–16 | -12.6 | -23.8 | -2.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | UNLV @ San José State | 7–40 | -5.1 | -6.5 | -33.0 | 27.9 |
| 2022 | 6 | SMU @ UCF | 19–41 | -4.7 | -3.0 | -22.0 | 17.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Houston @ Memphis | 33–32 | -2.8 | -1.5 | +1.0 | 3.8 |
| 2022 | 6 | East Carolina @ Tulane | 9–24 | -6.9 | -2.5 | -15.0 | 8.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Tulsa @ Navy | 21–53 | +3.4 | +4.5 | -32.0 | 35.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.