Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | South Florida @ Cincinnati | 24–28 | -35.2 | -27.0 | -4.0 | 31.2 |
| 2022 | 6 | Ball State @ Central Michigan | 17–16 | -3.7 | -7.5 | +1.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan | 45–23 | -8.0 | -4.5 | +22.0 | 30.0 |
| 2022 | 6 | Toledo @ Northern Illinois | 52–32 | +6.1 | +6.5 | +20.0 | 13.9 |
| 2022 | 6 | Akron @ Ohio | 34–55 | -6.6 | -10.0 | -21.0 | 14.4 |
| 2022 | 6 | Buffalo @ Bowling Green | 38–7 | +1.1 | +2.0 | +31.0 | 29.9 |
| 2022 | 6 | Kent State @ Miami (OH) | 24–27 | +4.2 | +5.0 | -3.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Georgia Southern @ Georgia State | 33–41 | -4.4 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | James Madison @ Arkansas State | 42–20 | +6.5 | +11.5 | +22.0 | 15.5 |
| 2022 | 6 | Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe | 28–21 | +4.0 | +12.5 | +7.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | App State @ Texas State | 24–36 | +9.6 | +19.5 | -12.0 | 21.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | Southern Miss @ Troy | 10–27 | -8.1 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | UConn @ Florida International | 33–12 | +5.6 | +5.5 | +21.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | UTEP @ Louisiana Tech | 31–41 | +1.0 | -1.8 | -10.0 | 11.0 |
| 2022 | 6 | Middle Tennessee @ UAB | 14–41 | -1.4 | -10.0 | -27.0 | 25.6 |
| 2022 | 6 | Western Kentucky @ UTSA | 28–31 | -1.4 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Alabama @ Arkansas | 49–26 | +28.6 | +17.0 | +23.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | LSU @ Auburn | 21–17 | +19.0 | +8.0 | +4.0 | 15.0 |
| 2022 | 5 | FCS @ Florida | 17–52 | -28.2 | -32.0 | -35.0 | 6.8 |
| 2022 | 5 | Kentucky @ Ole Miss | 19–22 | -11.7 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 8.7 |
| 2022 | 5 | Texas A&M @ Mississippi State | 24–42 | -7.0 | -4.0 | -18.0 | 11.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Georgia @ Missouri | 26–22 | +25.1 | +30.8 | +4.0 | 21.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | FCS @ South Carolina | 10–50 | -26.8 | -40.5 | -40.0 | 13.2 |
| 2022 | 5 | Colorado @ Arizona | 20–43 | -6.6 | -17.8 | -23.0 | 16.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | Arizona State @ USC | 25–42 | -25.7 | -24.5 | -17.0 | 8.7 |
| 2022 | 5 | California @ Washington State | 9–28 | -5.9 | -4.0 | -19.0 | 13.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Stanford @ Oregon | 27–45 | -23.7 | -17.5 | -18.0 | 5.7 |
| 2022 | 5 | Oregon State @ Utah | 16–42 | -14.2 | -10.5 | -26.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Washington @ UCLA | 32–40 | -6.6 | +2.5 | -8.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Oklahoma State @ Baylor | 36–25 | -2.9 | -2.5 | +11.0 | 13.9 |
| 2022 | 5 | Iowa State @ Kansas | 11–14 | -0.6 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Texas Tech @ Kansas State | 28–37 | -4.6 | -7.5 | -9.0 | 4.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | Oklahoma @ TCU | 24–55 | +4.9 | +5.0 | -31.0 | 35.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | West Virginia @ Texas | 20–38 | -5.4 | -7.5 | -18.0 | 12.6 |
| 2022 | 5 | Georgia State @ Army | 31–14 | -13.6 | -8.5 | +17.0 | 30.6 |
| 2022 | 5 | Fresno State @ UConn | 14–19 | +14.2 | +23.3 | -5.0 | 19.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Liberty @ Old Dominion | 38–24 | +1.0 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 13.0 |
| 2022 | 5 | Illinois @ Wisconsin | 34–10 | -4.1 | -6.5 | +24.0 | 28.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Michigan @ Iowa | 27–14 | +11.7 | +10.5 | +13.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Purdue @ Minnesota | 20–10 | -22.1 | -9.0 | +10.0 | 32.1 |
| 2022 | 5 | Indiana @ Nebraska | 21–35 | +0.4 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 14.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | Michigan State @ Maryland | 13–27 | -18.4 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Rutgers @ Ohio State | 10–49 | -44.4 | -39.0 | -39.0 | 5.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | Northwestern @ Penn State | 7–17 | -34.3 | -25.5 | -10.0 | 24.3 |
| 2022 | 5 | Louisville @ Boston College | 33–34 | +18.4 | +13.5 | -1.0 | 19.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | NC State @ Clemson | 20–30 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -10.0 | 6.5 |
| 2022 | 5 | Virginia @ Duke | 17–38 | -3.5 | -2.0 | -21.0 | 17.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Wake Forest @ Florida State | 31–21 | -11.2 | -6.0 | +10.0 | 21.2 |
| 2022 | 5 | Virginia Tech @ North Carolina | 10–41 | -10.6 | -9.5 | -31.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh | 26–21 | -16.4 | -21.5 | +5.0 | 21.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.