Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 10 | App State @ Arkansas State | 48–14 | +23.4 | +21.5 | +34.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern | 28–8 | +19.8 | +16.0 | +20.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | UL Monroe @ Texas State | 19–27 | +5.6 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 13.6 |
| 2021 | 10 | South Alabama @ Troy | 24–31 | +0.0 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 7.0 |
| 2021 | 10 | Utah @ Stanford | 52–7 | +13.6 | +10.3 | +45.0 | 31.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | California @ Arizona | 3–10 | +21.8 | +7.0 | -7.0 | 28.8 |
| 2021 | 10 | Oregon @ Washington | 26–16 | +7.1 | +7.0 | +10.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Oregon State @ Colorado | 34–37 | +14.3 | +11.5 | -3.0 | 17.3 |
| 2021 | 10 | USC @ Arizona State | 16–31 | -13.2 | -9.8 | -15.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | FCS @ BYU | 14–59 | -44.0 | -36.5 | -45.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Army vs Air Force | 21–14 | -1.6 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Boise State @ Fresno State | 40–14 | -0.4 | -4.0 | +26.0 | 26.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 10 | Colorado State @ Wyoming | 17–31 | +13.2 | +3.0 | -14.0 | 27.2 |
| 2021 | 10 | UNLV @ New Mexico | 31–17 | -2.7 | -1.5 | +14.0 | 16.7 |
| 2021 | 10 | Utah State @ New Mexico State | 35–13 | +16.5 | +18.5 | +22.0 | 5.5 |
| 2021 | 10 | San Diego State @ Hawai'i | 17–10 | +6.4 | +7.0 | +7.0 | 0.6 |
| 2021 | 10 | San José State @ Nevada | 24–27 | -18.8 | -11.5 | -3.0 | 15.8 |
| 2021 | 9 | Ole Miss @ Auburn | 20–31 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -11.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Georgia vs Florida | 34–7 | +23.8 | +14.0 | +27.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Kentucky @ Mississippi State | 17–31 | +0.3 | -1.0 | -14.0 | 14.3 |
| 2021 | 9 | Missouri @ Vanderbilt | 37–28 | +14.9 | +16.0 | +9.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Charlotte @ Western Kentucky | 13–45 | -22.4 | -19.5 | -32.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Florida International @ Marshall | 0–38 | -27.6 | -21.5 | -38.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | UTEP @ Florida Atlantic | 25–28 | -4.3 | -11.0 | -3.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Louisiana Tech @ Old Dominion | 20–23 | -4.6 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Southern Miss @ Middle Tennessee | 10–35 | -22.0 | -12.5 | -25.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | North Texas @ Rice | 30–24 | -7.1 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 13.1 |
| 2021 | 9 | Virginia @ BYU | 49–66 | +3.0 | -2.5 | -17.0 | 20.0 |
| 2021 | 9 | Florida State @ Clemson | 20–30 | +1.4 | -9.5 | -10.0 | 11.4 |
| 2021 | 9 | Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech | 26–17 | -7.7 | -3.5 | +9.0 | 16.7 |
| 2021 | 9 | Louisville @ NC State | 13–28 | -5.3 | -6.0 | -15.0 | 9.7 |
| 2021 | 9 | North Carolina @ Notre Dame | 34–44 | -6.0 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Miami @ Pittsburgh | 38–34 | -14.5 | -9.5 | +4.0 | 18.5 |
| 2021 | 9 | Boston College @ Syracuse | 6–21 | -17.2 | -6.5 | -15.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Duke @ Wake Forest | 7–45 | -29.3 | -16.5 | -38.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Rutgers @ Illinois | 20–14 | -12.7 | +1.5 | +6.0 | 18.7 |
| 2021 | 9 | Indiana @ Maryland | 35–38 | -1.2 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.8 |
| 2021 | 9 | Iowa @ Wisconsin | 7–27 | -16.1 | -3.0 | -20.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Michigan @ Michigan State | 33–37 | +6.5 | +4.0 | -4.0 | 10.5 |
| 2021 | 9 | Minnesota @ Northwestern | 41–14 | +15.1 | +7.5 | +27.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Purdue @ Nebraska | 28–23 | -7.5 | -7.5 | +5.0 | 12.5 |
| 2021 | 9 | Penn State @ Ohio State | 24–33 | -37.3 | -18.5 | -9.0 | 28.3 |
| 2021 | 9 | Massachusetts @ Liberty | 17–62 | -38.5 | -35.5 | -45.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Texas @ Baylor | 24–31 | -6.7 | -2.3 | -7.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | TCU @ Kansas State | 12–31 | -5.0 | -3.5 | -19.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Texas Tech @ Oklahoma | 21–52 | -14.5 | -19.0 | -31.0 | 16.5 |
| 2021 | 9 | Kansas @ Oklahoma State | 3–55 | -36.9 | -29.0 | -52.0 | 15.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | Iowa State @ West Virginia | 31–38 | +8.9 | +7.5 | -7.0 | 15.9 |
| 2021 | 9 | Navy @ Tulsa | 20–17 | -1.8 | -11.0 | +3.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | UCF @ Temple | 49–7 | +17.1 | +11.8 | +42.0 | 24.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.