Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2022	10	Houston @ SMU	63–77	+7.3	-3.5	-14.0	21.3
2022	10	Ball State @ Kent State	27–20	-4.4	-7.0	+7.0	11.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	10	Buffalo @ Ohio	24–45	+10.8	+2.5	-21.0	31.8
2022	10	Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois	35–22	-15.6	-4.5	+13.0	28.6
2022	10	Western Michigan @ Bowling Green	9–13	-11.2	-5.0	-4.0	7.2
2022	10	App State @ Coastal Carolina	28–35	+7.7	+3.0	-7.0	14.7
2022	10	South Alabama @ Georgia Southern	38–31	+2.7	+3.5	+7.0	4.3
2022	10	Marshall @ Old Dominion	12–0	-4.7	+3.5	+12.0	16.7
2022	10	Troy @ Louisiana	23–17	+11.2	+3.5	+6.0	5.2
2022	10	Texas State @ UL Monroe	30–31	+12.2	-2.5	-1.0	13.2
2022	10	Georgia State @ Southern Miss	42–14	-4.2	-2.0	+28.0	32.2
2022	10	Western Kentucky @ Charlotte	59–7	+6.0	+14.5	+52.0	46.0
2022	10	Florida International @ North Texas	14–52	-27.1	-21.5	-38.0	10.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	10	Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech	24–40	+3.6	+2.5	-16.0	19.6
2022	10	UTEP @ Rice	30–37	+4.5	-3.5	-7.0	11.5
2022	10	UTSA @ UAB	44–38	+4.9	+2.5	+6.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Arkansas @ Auburn	41–27	-1.8	+4.0	+14.0	15.8
2022	9	Florida vs Georgia	20–42	-22.2	-23.0	-22.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Missouri @ South Carolina	23–10	-14.6	-3.5	+13.0	27.6
2022	9	Kentucky @ Tennessee	6–44	-12.8	-10.5	-38.0	25.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Ole Miss @ Texas A&M	31–28	-7.1	+3.0	+3.0	10.1
2022	9	USC @ Arizona	45–37	+21.4	+14.0	+8.0	13.4
2022	9	Arizona State @ Colorado	42–34	+15.3	+13.0	+8.0	7.3
2022	9	Oregon @ California	42–24	+29.9	+16.8	+18.0	11.9
2022	9	Stanford @ UCLA	13–38	-14.1	-16.5	-25.0	10.9
2022	9	Utah @ Washington State	21–17	+8.5	+7.3	+4.0	4.5
2022	9	Oklahoma @ Iowa State	27–13	-14.9	+1.5	+14.0	28.9
2022	9	Baylor @ Texas Tech	45–17	-17.6	-1.5	+28.0	45.6
2022	9	Oklahoma State @ Kansas State	0–48	+0.2	-2.5	-48.0	48.2
2022	9	TCU @ West Virginia	41–31	+12.9	+7.0	+10.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Notre Dame @ Syracuse	41–24	-21.1	+0.5	+17.0	38.1
2022	9	Boston College @ UConn	3–13	-2.2	+8.0	-10.0	7.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Northwestern @ Iowa	13–33	-20.3	-11.5	-20.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Rutgers @ Minnesota	0–31	-1.8	-14.0	-31.0	29.2
2022	9	Illinois @ Nebraska	26–9	+12.2	+7.5	+17.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Michigan State @ Michigan	7–29	-24.0	-22.3	-22.0	2.0
2022	9	Ohio State @ Penn State	44–31	+20.8	+15.5	+13.0	7.8
2022	9	New Mexico State @ Massachusetts	23–13	-5.1	+1.0	+10.0	15.1
2022	9	Virginia Tech @ NC State	21–22	-28.0	-13.3	-1.0	27.0
2022	9	Georgia Tech @ Florida State	16–41	-20.7	-23.5	-25.0	4.3
2022	9	Wake Forest @ Louisville	21–48	+2.8	+3.0	-27.0	29.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Pittsburgh @ North Carolina	24–42	-9.8	-2.5	-18.0	8.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Miami @ Virginia	14–12	-5.3	+3.0	+2.0	7.3
2022	9	Colorado State @ Boise State	10–49	-31.9	-25.0	-39.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Wyoming @ Hawai'i	27–20	+13.4	+11.5	+7.0	6.4
2022	9	San Diego State @ Fresno State	28–32	-14.2	-10.8	-4.0	10.2
2022	9	Nevada @ San José State	28–35	-36.9	-24.5	-7.0	29.9
2022	9	South Florida @ Houston	27–42	-19.5	-17.5	-15.0	4.5
2022	9	Cincinnati @ UCF	21–25	-5.3	-1.5	-4.0	1.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	East Carolina @ BYU	27–24	+27.4	-3.0	+3.0	24.4

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.