Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10 | Massachusetts @ Mississippi State | 20–45 | -11.2 | -19.5 | -25.0 | 13.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | FCS @ Oklahoma | 14–59 | -40.3 | -37.5 | -45.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Texas A&M @ South Carolina | 20–44 | +0.4 | +3.0 | -24.0 | 24.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Kentucky @ Tennessee | 18–28 | -27.4 | -17.5 | -10.0 | 17.4 |
| 2024 | 10 | Minnesota @ Illinois | 25–17 | +7.0 | +2.5 | +8.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Indiana @ Michigan State | 47–10 | +13.6 | +7.5 | +37.0 | 23.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Wisconsin @ Iowa | 10–42 | -5.1 | -2.5 | -32.0 | 26.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Oregon @ Michigan | 38–17 | +19.6 | +14.5 | +21.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | UCLA @ Nebraska | 27–20 | -7.0 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Northwestern @ Purdue | 26–20 | +4.3 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Ohio State @ Penn State | 20–13 | -3.9 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 10.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | USC @ Washington | 21–26 | -4.4 | +2.0 | -5.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Georgia State @ UConn | 27–34 | -16.9 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | Stanford @ NC State | 28–59 | -16.5 | -9.5 | -31.0 | 14.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Louisville @ Clemson | 33–21 | -10.7 | -11.0 | +12.0 | 22.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Duke @ Miami | 31–53 | -15.1 | -21.0 | -22.0 | 6.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | North Carolina @ Florida State | 35–11 | +9.4 | +2.5 | +24.0 | 14.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Virginia Tech @ Syracuse | 31–38 | +18.5 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 25.5 |
| 2024 | 10 | Pittsburgh @ SMU | 25–48 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -23.0 | 16.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | TCU @ Baylor | 34–37 | -10.8 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 7.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | Kansas State @ Houston | 19–24 | +26.2 | +12.5 | -5.0 | 31.2 |
| 2024 | 10 | Texas Tech @ Iowa State | 23–22 | -16.0 | -13.5 | +1.0 | 17.0 |
| 2024 | 10 | Arizona State @ Oklahoma State | 42–21 | +5.4 | +5.0 | +21.0 | 15.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Arizona @ UCF | 12–56 | -9.3 | -6.5 | -44.0 | 34.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | 13–34 | -6.7 | -7.0 | -21.0 | 14.3 |
| 2024 | 10 | Jacksonville State @ Liberty | 31–21 | +12.4 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston | 3–9 | -9.7 | -10.5 | -6.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky | 14–31 | -35.8 | -23.5 | -17.0 | 18.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | Middle Tennessee @ UTEP | 20–13 | -13.5 | -2.0 | +7.0 | 20.5 |
| 2024 | 10 | Air Force @ Army | 3–20 | -35.3 | -18.0 | -17.0 | 18.3 |
| 2024 | 10 | San Diego State @ Boise State | 24–56 | -21.3 | -24.5 | -32.0 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 10 | Colorado State @ Nevada | 38–21 | +0.9 | +2.0 | +17.0 | 16.1 |
| 2024 | 10 | Hawai'i @ Fresno State | 21–20 | -6.5 | -12.5 | +1.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Wyoming @ New Mexico | 49–45 | -7.9 | -7.5 | +4.0 | 11.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | Louisiana @ Texas State | 23–17 | -12.0 | -4.0 | +6.0 | 18.0 |
| 2024 | 10 | Old Dominion @ App State | 20–28 | +15.7 | +2.5 | -8.0 | 23.7 |
| 2024 | 10 | UL Monroe @ Marshall | 23–28 | -8.3 | -10.5 | -5.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Georgia Southern @ South Alabama | 34–30 | -14.3 | -5.5 | +4.0 | 18.3 |
| 2024 | 10 | Coastal Carolina @ Troy | 24–38 | -5.3 | +4.0 | -14.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Buffalo @ Akron | 41–30 | -4.2 | +1.0 | +11.0 | 15.2 |
| 2024 | 10 | Toledo @ Eastern Michigan | 29–28 | +1.3 | +10.0 | +1.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Tulane @ Charlotte | 34–3 | +12.7 | +14.5 | +31.0 | 18.3 |
| 2024 | 10 | South Florida @ Florida Atlantic | 44–21 | -1.9 | +1.5 | +23.0 | 24.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | Tulsa @ UAB | 21–59 | -1.4 | -2.5 | -38.0 | 36.6 |
| 2024 | 10 | Memphis @ UTSA | 36–44 | +2.2 | +7.0 | -8.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | Navy @ Rice | 10–24 | +10.5 | +12.5 | -14.0 | 24.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Missouri @ Alabama | 0–34 | -8.5 | -16.0 | -34.0 | 25.5 |
| 2024 | 9 | Auburn @ Kentucky | 24–10 | +0.3 | -2.0 | +14.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Oklahoma @ Ole Miss | 14–26 | -31.4 | -19.5 | -12.0 | 19.4 |
| 2024 | 9 | Arkansas @ Mississippi State | 58–25 | +5.2 | +7.5 | +33.0 | 27.8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.