Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11 | Northern Illinois @ Toledo | 3–42 | -18.6 | -15.5 | -39.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan | 21–27 | -15.5 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 9.5 |
| 2025 | 10 | Mississippi State @ Arkansas | 38–35 | -9.6 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 12.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | Kentucky @ Auburn | 10–3 | -18.9 | -11.5 | +7.0 | 25.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | Georgia vs Florida | 24–20 | +8.8 | +7.0 | +4.0 | 4.8 |
| 2025 | 10 | South Carolina @ Ole Miss | 14–30 | -17.8 | -13.0 | -16.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Oklahoma @ Tennessee | 33–27 | -10.9 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 16.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | Vanderbilt @ Texas | 31–34 | -1.3 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 10 | Indiana @ Maryland | 55–10 | +21.2 | +21.0 | +45.0 | 23.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Michigan State @ Minnesota | 20–23 | -6.2 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 10 | Penn State @ Ohio State | 14–38 | -23.4 | -17.5 | -24.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Purdue @ Michigan | 16–21 | -25.3 | -21.0 | -5.0 | 20.3 |
| 2025 | 10 | Rutgers @ Illinois | 13–35 | -9.9 | -13.0 | -22.0 | 12.1 |
| 2025 | 10 | USC @ Nebraska | 21–17 | +13.2 | +4.5 | +4.0 | 9.2 |
| 2025 | 10 | Washington State @ Oregon State | 7–10 | +15.8 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 18.8 |
| 2025 | 10 | North Carolina @ Syracuse | 27–10 | -8.2 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 25.2 |
| 2025 | 10 | Virginia @ California | 31–21 | +5.8 | +6.5 | +10.0 | 4.2 |
| 2025 | 10 | Duke @ Clemson | 46–45 | -7.9 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | Wake Forest @ Florida State | 7–42 | +0.1 | -12.5 | -35.0 | 35.1 |
| 2025 | 10 | Georgia Tech @ NC State | 36–48 | +9.4 | +4.5 | -12.0 | 21.4 |
| 2025 | 10 | Louisville @ Virginia Tech | 28–16 | +5.7 | +10.5 | +12.0 | 6.3 |
| 2025 | 10 | Miami @ SMU | 20–26 | -2.4 | +8.5 | -6.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Pittsburgh @ Stanford | 35–20 | +17.6 | +13.5 | +15.0 | 2.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | Notre Dame @ Boston College | 25–10 | +31.9 | +31.0 | +15.0 | 16.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | UCF @ Baylor | 3–30 | +2.6 | -3.0 | -27.0 | 29.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | Arizona @ Colorado | 52–17 | -0.1 | +3.5 | +35.0 | 35.1 |
| 2025 | 10 | West Virginia @ Houston | 45–35 | -17.6 | -13.0 | +10.0 | 27.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | Arizona State @ Iowa State | 24–19 | -1.7 | -7.5 | +5.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Oklahoma State @ Kansas | 21–38 | -26.6 | -24.5 | -17.0 | 9.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | Texas Tech @ Kansas State | 43–20 | +0.6 | +7.5 | +23.0 | 22.4 |
| 2025 | 10 | Cincinnati @ Utah | 14–45 | -21.1 | -11.0 | -31.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | UAB @ UConn | 19–38 | -6.2 | -10.5 | -19.0 | 12.8 |
| 2025 | 10 | UTEP @ Kennesaw State | 20–33 | -23.1 | -12.5 | -13.0 | 10.1 |
| 2025 | 10 | Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech | 14–55 | -14.2 | -16.5 | -41.0 | 26.8 |
| 2025 | 10 | Florida International @ Missouri State | 21–28 | -8.9 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee | 24–21 | +2.6 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Delaware @ Liberty | 30–59 | -7.0 | -3.5 | -29.0 | 22.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky | 16–35 | -4.2 | -7.5 | -19.0 | 14.8 |
| 2025 | 10 | Army @ Air Force | 20–17 | -1.9 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 4.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | Fresno State @ Boise State | 30–7 | -28.7 | -17.5 | +23.0 | 51.7 |
| 2025 | 10 | Hawai'i @ San José State | 38–45 | +3.0 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 10.0 |
| 2025 | 10 | New Mexico @ UNLV | 40–35 | -3.5 | -3.5 | +5.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Wyoming @ San Diego State | 7–24 | -14.5 | -10.0 | -17.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | James Madison @ Texas State | 52–20 | -0.7 | +7.5 | +32.0 | 32.7 |
| 2025 | 10 | Marshall @ Coastal Carolina | 27–44 | +3.9 | +7.0 | -17.0 | 20.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Old Dominion @ UL Monroe | 31–6 | +7.8 | +16.5 | +25.0 | 17.2 |
| 2025 | 10 | Louisiana @ South Alabama | 31–22 | -5.9 | -3.5 | +9.0 | 14.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | Arkansas State @ Troy | 23–10 | -7.2 | -7.5 | +13.0 | 20.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Tulane @ UTSA | 26–48 | +5.2 | +6.0 | -22.0 | 27.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Memphis @ Rice | 38–14 | +12.0 | +14.0 | +24.0 | 12.0 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.