Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	9	Cincinnati @ Tulane	31–12	+28.7	+28.0	+19.0	9.7
2021	9	South Florida @ East Carolina	14–29	-5.9	-9.5	-15.0	9.1
2021	9	SMU @ Houston	37–44	-3.0	+1.0	-7.0	4.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	9	Bowling Green @ Buffalo	56–44	-19.5	-13.5	+12.0	31.5
2021	9	Troy @ Coastal Carolina	28–35	-19.3	-17.0	-7.0	12.3
2021	9	UL Monroe @ App State	28–59	-14.9	-27.0	-31.0	16.1
2021	9	Arkansas State @ South Alabama	13–31	-8.9	-9.0	-18.0	9.1
2021	9	Georgia State @ Georgia Southern	21–14	+14.7	+6.0	+7.0	7.7
2021	9	Texas State @ Louisiana	0–45	-23.1	-21.0	-45.0	21.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	9	Oregon State @ California	25–39	+5.7	+2.0	-14.0	19.7
2021	9	Washington @ Stanford	20–13	-9.2	-2.5	+7.0	16.2
2021	9	Colorado @ Oregon	29–52	-18.8	-24.5	-23.0	4.2
2021	9	Washington State @ Arizona State	34–21	-10.5	-16.5	+13.0	23.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	9	Arizona @ USC	34–41	-25.7	-21.5	-7.0	18.7
2021	9	UCLA @ Utah	24–44	-8.0	-6.3	-20.0	12.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	9	Boise State @ Colorado State	28–19	-7.3	+2.0	+9.0	16.3
2021	9	Hawai'i @ Utah State	31–51	-0.3	-4.0	-20.0	19.7
2021	9	Wyoming @ San José State	21–27	-11.9	-3.0	-6.0	5.9
2021	9	Fresno State @ San Diego State	30–20	-4.0	+2.0	+10.0	14.0
2021	9	UNLV @ Nevada	20–51	-19.1	-19.0	-31.0	11.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Tennessee @ Alabama	24–52	-20.4	-25.5	-28.0	7.6
2021	8	FCS @ Arkansas	3–45	-40.7	-50.5	-42.0	1.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	LSU @ Ole Miss	17–31	-7.5	-9.0	-14.0	6.5
2021	8	South Carolina @ Texas A&M	14–44	-22.8	-19.5	-30.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt	45–6	+15.3	+20.5	+39.0	23.7
2021	8	Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte	38–9	+7.6	+6.5	+29.0	21.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Western Kentucky @ Florida International	34–19	+22.5	+16.5	+15.0	7.5
2021	8	UTSA @ Louisiana Tech	45–16	+18.9	+5.5	+29.0	10.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Rice @ UAB	30–24	-31.4	-23.8	+6.0	37.4
2021	8	Middle Tennessee @ UConn	44–13	+12.5	+14.0	+31.0	18.5
2021	8	Liberty @ North Texas	35–26	+23.7	+21.0	+9.0	14.7
2021	8	Wake Forest @ Army	70–56	+1.8	+3.0	+14.0	12.2
2021	8	Massachusetts @ Florida State	3–59	-37.1	-35.3	-56.0	18.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Boston College @ Louisville	14–28	-18.7	-4.0	-14.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	NC State @ Miami	30–31	+1.2	+3.5	-1.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Clemson @ Pittsburgh	17–27	-19.6	-3.5	-10.0	9.6
2021	8	Georgia Tech @ Virginia	40–48	-16.9	-6.5	-8.0	8.9
2021	8	Syracuse @ Virginia Tech	41–36	+2.4	-3.5	+5.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	USC @ Notre Dame	16–31	-7.5	-7.5	-15.0	7.5
2021	8	Illinois @ Penn State	20–18	-29.4	-24.5	+2.0	31.4
2021	8	Ohio State @ Indiana	54–7	+25.0	+21.0	+47.0	22.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Maryland @ Minnesota	16–34	-20.3	-4.0	-18.0	2.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Northwestern @ Michigan	7–33	-25.7	-23.5	-26.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Wisconsin @ Purdue	30–13	-10.7	+3.5	+17.0	27.7
2021	8	Oklahoma State @ Iowa State	21–24	-2.2	-7.0	-3.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Oklahoma @ Kansas	35–23	+42.9	+38.5	+12.0	30.9
2021	8	West Virginia @ TCU	29–17	-9.8	-4.5	+12.0	21.8
2021	8	Kansas State @ Texas Tech	25–24	+3.7	+1.0	+1.0	2.7
2021	8	Tulane @ SMU	26–55	-18.3	-14.0	-29.0	10.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Memphis @ UCF	7–24	+1.2	-1.3	-17.0	18.2

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.