Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2022	9	Temple @ Navy	20–27	-19.8	-14.5	-7.0	12.8
2022	9	SMU @ Tulsa	45–34	+3.2	+1.0	+11.0	7.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Toledo @ Eastern Michigan	27–24	+10.4	+4.0	+3.0	7.4
2022	9	Miami (OH) @ Akron	27–9	+5.4	+9.0	+18.0	12.6
2022	9	Louisiana @ Southern Miss	24–39	+2.0	+2.5	-15.0	17.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	FCS @ App State	3–42	-28.9	-50.0	-39.0	10.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	Old Dominion @ Georgia State	17–31	+0.7	-3.5	-14.0	14.7
2022	9	Coastal Carolina @ Marshall	24–13	-14.0	-2.5	+11.0	25.0
2022	9	South Alabama @ Arkansas State	31–3	+6.6	+9.0	+28.0	21.4
2022	9	Charlotte @ Rice	56–23	-25.0	-15.0	+33.0	58.0
2022	9	Louisiana Tech @ Florida International	34–42	-1.2	+6.5	-8.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	9	UAB @ Florida Atlantic	17–24	+6.5	+4.8	-7.0	13.5
2022	9	Middle Tennessee @ UTEP	24–13	-4.7	-2.5	+11.0	15.7
2022	9	North Texas @ Western Kentucky	40–13	-10.1	-10.0	+27.0	37.1
2022	8	Mississippi State @ Alabama	6–30	-13.4	-21.3	-24.0	10.6
2022	8	Ole Miss @ LSU	20–45	+0.5	0.0	-25.0	25.5
2022	8	Vanderbilt @ Missouri	14–17	-16.9	-14.0	-3.0	13.9
2022	8	Texas A&M @ South Carolina	24–30	-1.6	+3.0	-6.0	4.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	FCS @ Tennessee	24–65	-47.4	-38.8	-41.0	6.4
2022	8	Arizona State @ Stanford	14–15	-5.6	-3.0	-1.0	4.6
2022	8	Washington @ California	28–21	+11.4	+7.5	+7.0	4.4
2022	8	Colorado @ Oregon State	9–42	-23.0	-23.0	-33.0	10.0
2022	8	UCLA @ Oregon	30–45	-7.2	-7.0	-15.0	7.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Kansas @ Baylor	23–35	-10.9	-10.5	-12.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Kansas State @ TCU	28–38	-1.5	-3.5	-10.0	8.5
2022	8	Texas @ Oklahoma State	34–41	+7.7	+6.5	-7.0	14.7
2022	8	West Virginia @ Texas Tech	10–48	-7.6	-5.0	-38.0	30.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	UNLV @ Notre Dame	21–44	-21.9	-26.0	-23.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	UL Monroe @ Army	24–48	-2.8	-6.5	-24.0	21.2
2022	8	BYU @ Liberty	14–41	+1.9	+7.0	-27.0	28.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Purdue @ Wisconsin	24–35	+1.4	-1.5	-11.0	12.4
2022	8	Northwestern @ Maryland	24–31	-29.7	-14.3	-7.0	22.7
2022	8	Iowa @ Ohio State	10–54	-26.4	-29.8	-44.0	17.6
2022	8	Minnesota @ Penn State	17–45	-0.8	-5.5	-28.0	27.2
2022	8	Indiana @ Rutgers	17–24	-0.5	-3.0	-7.0	6.5
2022	8	Virginia @ Georgia Tech	16–9	-12.1	-3.5	+7.0	19.1
2022	8	Syracuse @ Clemson	21–27	-7.7	-14.0	-6.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Pittsburgh @ Louisville	10–24	-10.7	-1.5	-14.0	3.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Duke @ Miami	45–21	-6.2	-10.0	+24.0	30.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Boston College @ Wake Forest	15–43	-22.7	-20.0	-28.0	5.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Boise State @ Air Force	19–14	-3.7	-2.3	+5.0	8.7
2022	8	Hawai'i @ Colorado State	13–17	+3.5	-6.0	-4.0	7.5
2022	8	Fresno State @ New Mexico	41–9	+13.9	+9.8	+32.0	18.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Utah State @ Wyoming	14–28	+1.5	-5.3	-14.0	15.5
2022	8	San Diego State @ Nevada	23–7	+12.1	+7.3	+16.0	3.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Tulsa @ Temple	27–16	+2.3	+13.5	+11.0	8.7
2022	8	Memphis @ Tulane	28–38	-10.7	-7.0	-10.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Houston @ Navy	38–20	+1.4	+3.0	+18.0	16.6
2022	8	Cincinnati @ SMU	29–27	+1.9	+3.5	+2.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	UCF @ East Carolina	13–34	+14.4	+5.5	-21.0	35.4

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.