Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9 | LSU @ Texas A&M | 23–38 | +7.2 | -2.0 | -15.0 | 22.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | Texas @ Vanderbilt | 27–24 | +15.1 | +17.0 | +3.0 | 12.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Illinois @ Oregon | 9–38 | -24.1 | -22.5 | -29.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Washington @ Indiana | 17–31 | -23.6 | -5.5 | -14.0 | 9.6 |
| 2024 | 9 | Northwestern @ Iowa | 14–40 | -4.4 | -16.5 | -26.0 | 21.6 |
| 2024 | 9 | Maryland @ Minnesota | 23–48 | -13.4 | -6.0 | -25.0 | 11.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Michigan State @ Michigan | 17–24 | +6.9 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 13.9 |
| 2024 | 9 | Nebraska @ Ohio State | 17–21 | -39.0 | -25.0 | -4.0 | 35.0 |
| 2024 | 9 | Penn State @ Wisconsin | 28–13 | -3.2 | +6.5 | +15.0 | 18.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | Rutgers @ USC | 20–42 | -17.9 | -13.8 | -22.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Notre Dame vs Navy | 51–14 | +11.3 | +14.0 | +37.0 | 25.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | Rice @ UConn | 10–17 | -7.0 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Syracuse @ Pittsburgh | 13–41 | -6.1 | -5.0 | -28.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Louisville @ Boston College | 31–27 | +10.5 | +7.0 | +4.0 | 6.5 |
| 2024 | 9 | Oregon State @ California | 7–44 | -11.3 | -13.0 | -37.0 | 25.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | SMU @ Duke | 28–27 | +18.7 | +11.5 | +1.0 | 17.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | Florida State @ Miami | 14–36 | -22.4 | -22.5 | -22.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech | 6–21 | -8.3 | -11.0 | -15.0 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | North Carolina @ Virginia | 41–14 | -8.5 | -3.5 | +27.0 | 35.5 |
| 2024 | 9 | Wake Forest @ Stanford | 27–24 | +2.3 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | West Virginia @ Arizona | 31–26 | +4.2 | -5.5 | +5.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Oklahoma State @ Baylor | 28–38 | -12.6 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Cincinnati @ Colorado | 23–34 | -10.9 | -6.0 | -11.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Utah @ Houston | 14–17 | +2.8 | +4.5 | -3.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Kansas @ Kansas State | 27–29 | -16.0 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 14.0 |
| 2024 | 9 | Texas Tech @ TCU | 34–35 | -3.9 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | BYU @ UCF | 37–24 | -6.3 | -2.5 | +13.0 | 19.3 |
| 2024 | 9 | Sam Houston vs Florida International | 10–7 | +14.3 | +5.0 | +3.0 | 11.3 |
| 2024 | 9 | Liberty @ Kennesaw State | 24–27 | +26.6 | +27.0 | -3.0 | 29.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State | 20–42 | -35.2 | -20.5 | -22.0 | 13.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | UTEP @ Louisiana Tech | 10–14 | -0.6 | -6.5 | -4.0 | 3.4 |
| 2024 | 9 | Boise State @ UNLV | 29–24 | +5.5 | +4.0 | +5.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | New Mexico @ Colorado State | 6–17 | -7.6 | -3.5 | -11.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | San José State @ Fresno State | 10–33 | -0.6 | -6.5 | -23.0 | 22.4 |
| 2024 | 9 | Nevada @ Hawai'i | 13–34 | +4.2 | -2.5 | -21.0 | 25.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | Washington State @ San Diego State | 29–26 | +15.2 | +17.0 | +3.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Utah State @ Wyoming | 27–25 | +3.0 | +2.0 | +2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 9 | Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion | 19–47 | +1.7 | +1.0 | -28.0 | 29.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | Georgia State @ App State | 26–33 | -6.3 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | Southern Miss @ James Madison | 15–32 | -27.7 | -24.0 | -17.0 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | Troy @ Arkansas State | 31–34 | -2.9 | -8.5 | -3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | UL Monroe @ South Alabama | 17–46 | -10.9 | -7.0 | -29.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Central Michigan @ Miami (OH) | 7–46 | -16.5 | -10.5 | -39.0 | 22.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Eastern Michigan @ Akron | 21–25 | -1.0 | +2.5 | -4.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Northern Illinois @ Ball State | 23–25 | +13.7 | +13.5 | -2.0 | 15.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | Bowling Green @ Toledo | 41–26 | +0.9 | -2.0 | +15.0 | 14.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Buffalo @ Ohio | 16–47 | -6.4 | -4.0 | -31.0 | 24.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Kent State @ Western Michigan | 21–52 | -18.3 | -19.0 | -31.0 | 12.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | FCS @ Massachusetts | 7–35 | -12.8 | -23.3 | -28.0 | 15.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | Temple @ East Carolina | 34–56 | -3.3 | -8.5 | -22.0 | 18.7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.