Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10 | East Carolina @ Temple | 45–14 | +6.5 | +5.5 | +31.0 | 24.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Navy @ North Texas | 17–31 | -10.5 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | Buffalo @ Bowling Green | 28–3 | -10.6 | -2.5 | +25.0 | 35.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | Central Michigan @ Western Michigan | 21–24 | -6.0 | -5.5 | -3.0 | 3.0 |
| 2025 | 9 | Auburn @ Arkansas | 33–24 | -2.5 | -2.5 | +9.0 | 11.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | Tennessee @ Kentucky | 56–34 | +5.5 | +7.5 | +22.0 | 16.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | Texas A&M @ LSU | 49–25 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +24.0 | 18.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Texas @ Mississippi State | 45–38 | +2.2 | +8.5 | +7.0 | 4.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | Ole Miss @ Oklahoma | 34–26 | -6.8 | -5.5 | +8.0 | 14.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | Alabama @ South Carolina | 29–22 | +19.5 | +11.5 | +7.0 | 12.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | Missouri @ Vanderbilt | 10–17 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.3 |
| 2025 | 9 | Illinois @ Washington | 25–42 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Michigan @ Michigan State | 31–20 | +15.9 | +13.5 | +11.0 | 4.9 |
| 2025 | 9 | Minnesota @ Iowa | 3–41 | -9.9 | -7.5 | -38.0 | 28.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Northwestern @ Nebraska | 21–28 | +3.2 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 10.2 |
| 2025 | 9 | Rutgers @ Purdue | 27–24 | -10.2 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 13.2 |
| 2025 | 9 | UCLA @ Indiana | 6–56 | -20.4 | -27.5 | -50.0 | 29.6 |
| 2025 | 9 | Wisconsin @ Oregon | 7–21 | -42.0 | -31.5 | -14.0 | 28.0 |
| 2025 | 9 | SMU @ Wake Forest | 12–13 | +3.9 | +5.5 | -1.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Toledo @ Washington State | 7–28 | -1.4 | +1.5 | -21.0 | 19.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | California @ Virginia Tech | 34–42 | -8.5 | -6.0 | -8.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Boston College @ Louisville | 24–38 | -30.8 | -25.5 | -14.0 | 16.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | Syracuse @ Georgia Tech | 16–41 | -19.3 | -17.5 | -25.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Stanford @ Miami | 7–42 | -23.4 | -28.5 | -35.0 | 11.6 |
| 2025 | 9 | Virginia @ North Carolina | 17–16 | +16.9 | +11.5 | +1.0 | 15.9 |
| 2025 | 9 | NC State @ Pittsburgh | 34–53 | -8.2 | -5.0 | -19.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Houston @ Arizona State | 24–16 | -13.9 | -7.5 | +8.0 | 21.9 |
| 2025 | 9 | Baylor @ Cincinnati | 20–41 | -7.1 | -3.5 | -21.0 | 13.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | BYU @ Iowa State | 41–27 | +4.3 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Kansas State @ Kansas | 42–17 | -4.2 | -3.5 | +25.0 | 29.2 |
| 2025 | 9 | Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech | 0–42 | -47.3 | -37.5 | -42.0 | 5.3 |
| 2025 | 9 | Colorado @ Utah | 7–53 | -21.8 | -14.0 | -46.0 | 24.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | TCU @ West Virginia | 23–17 | +16.5 | +16.5 | +6.0 | 10.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | UConn @ Rice | 34–37 | +16.8 | +10.0 | -3.0 | 19.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | Kennesaw State @ Florida International | 45–26 | +0.5 | +3.0 | +19.0 | 18.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech | 28–27 | -9.0 | -5.0 | +1.0 | 10.0 |
| 2025 | 9 | Middle Tennessee @ Delaware | 28–31 | -5.5 | -8.5 | -3.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Missouri State @ New Mexico State | 24–17 | -6.0 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 13.0 |
| 2025 | 9 | Boise State @ Nevada | 24–3 | +27.0 | +21.0 | +21.0 | 6.0 |
| 2025 | 9 | Colorado State @ Wyoming | 0–28 | -4.2 | -5.5 | -28.0 | 23.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | San Diego State @ Fresno State | 23–0 | +19.9 | +3.0 | +23.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Utah State @ New Mexico | 14–33 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -19.0 | 17.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | South Alabama @ Georgia State | 38–31 | +1.5 | +6.0 | +7.0 | 5.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | App State @ Old Dominion | 21–24 | -7.8 | -13.5 | -3.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State | 24–34 | -5.2 | +1.0 | -10.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | UL Monroe @ Southern Miss | 21–49 | -16.8 | -14.0 | -28.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Louisiana @ Troy | 23–35 | -10.9 | -7.0 | -12.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | North Texas @ Charlotte | 54–20 | +27.5 | +25.5 | +34.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Florida Atlantic @ Navy | 32–42 | -8.9 | -14.5 | -10.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | South Florida @ Memphis | 31–34 | +14.6 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 17.6 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.