Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	8	Cincinnati @ Navy	27–20	+32.3	+28.5	+7.0	25.3
2021	8	East Carolina @ Houston	24–31	-18.0	-13.5	-7.0	11.0
2021	8	Temple @ South Florida	14–34	-1.5	-1.5	-20.0	18.5
2021	8	Miami (OH) @ Ball State	24–17	-5.9	-3.5	+7.0	12.9
2021	8	Western Michigan @ Toledo	15–34	+6.9	+1.5	-19.0	25.9
2021	8	Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green	55–24	+9.9	+4.0	+31.0	21.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Buffalo @ Akron	45–10	+0.2	+13.3	+35.0	34.8
2021	8	Kent State @ Ohio	34–27	-1.1	+5.0	+7.0	8.1
2021	8	Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan	39–38	-5.0	-6.0	+1.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	Coastal Carolina @ App State	27–30	+9.1	+4.5	-3.0	12.1
2021	8	Louisiana @ Arkansas State	28–27	+32.9	+18.0	+1.0	31.9
2021	8	Texas State @ Georgia State	16–28	-19.7	-10.5	-12.0	7.7
2021	8	South Alabama @ UL Monroe	31–41	+13.8	+13.5	-10.0	23.8
2021	8	Washington @ Arizona	21–16	+20.8	+17.3	+5.0	15.8
2021	8	Colorado @ California	3–26	-0.9	-8.3	-23.0	22.1
2021	8	Oregon @ UCLA	34–31	-5.3	-1.0	+3.0	8.3
2021	8	Utah @ Oregon State	34–42	+9.5	+3.0	-8.0	17.5
2021	8	BYU @ Washington State	21–19	-0.9	+3.5	+2.0	2.9
2021	8	San Diego State @ Air Force	20–14	-11.7	-3.0	+6.0	17.7
2021	8	Colorado State @ Utah State	24–26	+10.7	+3.0	-2.0	12.7
2021	8	New Mexico @ Wyoming	14–3	-20.0	-20.0	+11.0	31.0
2021	8	Nevada @ Fresno State	32–34	-1.2	-3.5	-2.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	New Mexico State @ Hawai'i	34–48	-15.0	-18.5	-14.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	8	San José State @ UNLV	27–20	+0.3	+6.0	+7.0	6.7
2021	7	Auburn @ Arkansas	38–23	-5.1	-4.5	+15.0	20.1
2021	7	Kentucky @ Georgia	13–30	-30.1	-21.5	-17.0	13.1
2021	7	Florida @ LSU	42–49	+9.7	+12.5	-7.0	16.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Alabama @ Mississippi State	49–9	+5.8	+17.5	+40.0	34.2
2021	7	Texas A&M @ Missouri	35–14	+18.5	+11.5	+21.0	2.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	20–21	-19.5	-18.8	-1.0	18.5
2021	7	Ole Miss @ Tennessee	31–26	-6.3	+1.0	+5.0	11.3
2021	7	Louisiana Tech @ UTEP	3–19	-5.7	+6.5	-16.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Marshall @ North Texas	49–21	+13.0	+11.0	+28.0	15.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion	43–20	+7.0	+13.5	+23.0	16.0
2021	7	Rice @ UTSA	0–45	-20.8	-17.0	-45.0	24.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	UAB @ Southern Miss	34–0	+22.5	+17.0	+34.0	11.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Clemson @ Syracuse	17–14	-0.2	+13.5	+3.0	3.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	NC State @ Boston College	33–7	-1.7	+3.0	+26.0	27.7
2021	7	Miami @ North Carolina	42–45	+2.1	-7.5	-3.0	5.1
2021	7	Duke @ Virginia	0–48	-16.3	-10.5	-48.0	31.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech	28–7	+21.9	+6.3	+21.0	0.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Michigan State @ Indiana	20–15	+12.3	+3.5	+5.0	7.3
2021	7	Purdue @ Iowa	24–7	-16.7	-11.0	+17.0	33.7
2021	7	Nebraska @ Minnesota	23–30	+11.0	+4.5	-7.0	18.0
2021	7	Rutgers @ Northwestern	7–21	+6.2	+2.5	-14.0	20.2
2021	7	Army @ Wisconsin	14–20	-8.5	-14.0	-6.0	2.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	FCS @ UConn	15–21	-1.3	+3.5	-6.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Liberty @ UL Monroe	28–31	+41.9	+32.5	-3.0	44.9
2021	7	BYU @ Baylor	24–38	-11.8	-5.5	-14.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Texas Tech @ Kansas	41–14	+14.1	+18.5	+27.0	12.9

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.