Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2022	8	Eastern Michigan @ Ball State	20–16	-9.1	-2.5	+4.0	13.1
2022	8	Northern Illinois @ Ohio	17–24	+9.9	+2.5	-7.0	16.9
2022	8	Toledo @ Buffalo	27–34	+4.6	+7.0	-7.0	11.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Western Michigan @ Miami (OH)	16–10	-14.9	-7.0	+6.0	20.9
2022	8	Akron @ Kent State	27–33	-22.0	-15.8	-6.0	16.0
2022	8	Bowling Green @ Central Michigan	34–18	-7.2	-6.0	+16.0	23.2
2022	8	Georgia State @ App State	17–42	-0.3	-9.5	-25.0	24.7
2022	8	Troy @ South Alabama	10–6	+2.4	-3.0	+4.0	1.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Marshall @ James Madison	26–12	-21.3	-9.5	+14.0	35.3
2022	8	Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion	28–23	-1.9	-1.5	+5.0	6.9
2022	8	Arkansas State @ Louisiana	18–38	-6.5	-6.3	-20.0	13.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Southern Miss @ Texas State	20–14	-9.6	+2.5	+6.0	15.6
2022	8	Florida International @ Charlotte	34–15	-9.3	-14.0	+19.0	28.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	Florida Atlantic @ UTEP	21–24	+3.6	+3.0	-3.0	6.6
2022	8	Rice @ Louisiana Tech	42–41	+5.1	+3.0	+1.0	4.1
2022	8	North Texas @ UTSA	27–31	-2.6	-10.0	-4.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	8	UAB @ Western Kentucky	17–20	-6.5	-1.3	-3.0	3.5
2022	7	Arkansas @ BYU	52–35	-6.6	-1.0	+17.0	23.6
2022	7	LSU @ Florida	45–35	-3.1	-2.0	+10.0	13.1
2022	7	Vanderbilt @ Georgia	0–55	-34.5	-37.5	-55.0	20.5
2022	7	Mississippi State @ Kentucky	17–27	+10.5	+3.5	-10.0	20.5
2022	7	Auburn @ Ole Miss	34–48	-11.3	-15.5	-14.0	2.7
2022	7	Alabama @ Tennessee	49–52	-4.7	+9.0	-3.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	Arizona @ Washington	39–49	-18.1	-14.5	-10.0	8.1
2022	7	California @ Colorado	13–20	+17.3	+15.0	-7.0	24.3
2022	7	Washington State @ Oregon State	10–24	+1.3	-3.0	-14.0	15.3
2022	7	Stanford @ Notre Dame	16–14	-18.9	-16.5	+2.0	20.9
2022	7	USC @ Utah	42–43	-4.2	-3.5	-1.0	3.2
2022	7	Baylor @ West Virginia	40–43	+1.3	+3.0	-3.0	4.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	Iowa State @ Texas	21–24	-22.5	-15.5	-3.0	19.5
2022	7	Kansas @ Oklahoma	42–52	+9.7	-10.5	-10.0	19.7
2022	7	Oklahoma State @ TCU	40–43	-4.3	-5.0	-3.0	1.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	FCS @ Army	17–42	-17.4	-31.0	-25.0	7.6
2022	7	UConn @ Ball State	21–25	-3.0	-9.5	-4.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	FCS @ Liberty	20–21	-29.2	-24.5	-1.0	28.2
2022	7	Minnesota @ Illinois	14–26	-2.3	+4.5	-12.0	9.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	Nebraska @ Purdue	37–43	-18.0	-14.0	-6.0	12.0
2022	7	Maryland @ Indiana	38–33	+18.7	+11.0	+5.0	13.7
2022	7	Penn State @ Michigan	17–41	-16.5	-7.0	-24.0	7.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	Wisconsin @ Michigan State	28–34	+7.3	+7.0	-6.0	13.3
2022	7	New Mexico @ New Mexico State	9–21	+6.3	+7.0	-12.0	18.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	North Carolina @ Duke	38–35	+4.0	+7.0	+3.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	Clemson @ Florida State	34–28	+5.4	+4.5	+6.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	NC State @ Syracuse	9–24	+0.9	-3.0	-15.0	15.9
2022	7	Miami @ Virginia Tech	20–14	+11.8	+9.0	+6.0	5.8
2022	7	Buffalo @ Massachusetts	34–7	+18.1	+17.0	+27.0	8.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	Air Force @ UNLV	42–7	-0.5	+10.0	+35.0	35.5
2022	7	Utah State @ Colorado State	17–13	+13.3	+14.0	+4.0	9.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	7	San José State @ Fresno State	10–17	+21.5	+7.0	-7.0	28.5
2022	7	Nevada @ Hawai'i	16–31	-8.0	+6.3	-15.0	7.0 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.