Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9 | Charlotte @ Memphis | 28–33 | -10.6 | -17.0 | -5.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | Tulane @ North Texas | 45–37 | +15.2 | +7.5 | +8.0 | 7.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | UTSA @ Tulsa | 45–46 | +19.2 | +9.5 | -1.0 | 20.2 |
| 2024 | 8 | LSU @ Arkansas | 34–10 | +4.7 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Kentucky @ Florida | 20–48 | +2.7 | +2.5 | -28.0 | 30.7 |
| 2024 | 8 | Texas A&M @ Mississippi State | 34–24 | +16.4 | +21.0 | +10.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Auburn @ Missouri | 17–21 | -7.2 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 8 | South Carolina @ Oklahoma | 35–9 | +4.1 | +1.0 | +26.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Alabama @ Tennessee | 17–24 | -3.5 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Georgia @ Texas | 30–15 | -16.3 | -4.0 | +15.0 | 31.3 |
| 2024 | 8 | Ball State @ Vanderbilt | 14–24 | -38.0 | -27.5 | -10.0 | 28.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | Michigan @ Illinois | 7–21 | +7.6 | +6.0 | -14.0 | 21.6 |
| 2024 | 8 | Nebraska @ Indiana | 7–56 | -11.9 | -6.5 | -49.0 | 37.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Iowa @ Michigan State | 20–32 | +12.0 | +6.5 | -12.0 | 24.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | USC @ Maryland | 28–29 | +19.2 | +6.5 | -1.0 | 20.2 |
| 2024 | 8 | Wisconsin vs Northwestern | 23–3 | +10.0 | +9.5 | +20.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Oregon @ Purdue | 35–0 | +32.8 | +29.5 | +35.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | UCLA @ Rutgers | 35–32 | +6.1 | -4.3 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech | 31–13 | +13.7 | +14.0 | +18.0 | 4.3 |
| 2024 | 8 | Wake Forest @ UConn | 23–20 | -21.1 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 24.1 |
| 2024 | 8 | Boston College @ Virginia Tech | 21–42 | -14.3 | -8.5 | -21.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Florida State @ Duke | 16–23 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 6.8 |
| 2024 | 8 | NC State @ California | 24–23 | -15.7 | -9.5 | +1.0 | 16.7 |
| 2024 | 8 | Virginia @ Clemson | 31–48 | -19.5 | -20.0 | -17.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Miami @ Louisville | 52–45 | +3.0 | +4.5 | +7.0 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | SMU @ Stanford | 40–10 | +26.3 | +16.5 | +30.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Colorado @ Arizona | 34–7 | +8.9 | -2.5 | +27.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Oklahoma State @ BYU | 35–38 | -23.8 | -8.5 | -3.0 | 20.8 |
| 2024 | 8 | Arizona State @ Cincinnati | 14–24 | -1.5 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 8.5 |
| 2024 | 8 | UCF @ Iowa State | 35–38 | -21.6 | -13.0 | -3.0 | 18.6 |
| 2024 | 8 | Houston vs Kansas | 14–42 | -0.0 | -4.5 | -28.0 | 28.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | Baylor @ Texas Tech | 59–35 | -12.3 | -4.5 | +24.0 | 36.3 |
| 2024 | 8 | TCU @ Utah | 13–7 | +0.6 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Kansas State @ West Virginia | 45–18 | +0.7 | +2.5 | +27.0 | 26.3 |
| 2024 | 8 | Florida International @ UTEP | 21–30 | +5.2 | +7.0 | -9.0 | 14.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State | 30–33 | +16.4 | +12.5 | -3.0 | 19.4 |
| 2024 | 8 | Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee | 5–14 | -6.3 | -8.5 | -9.0 | 2.7 |
| 2024 | 8 | Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston | 31–14 | -1.6 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 18.6 |
| 2024 | 8 | Colorado State @ Air Force | 21–13 | +9.5 | +6.0 | +8.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Fresno State @ Nevada | 24–21 | -10.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 13.5 |
| 2024 | 8 | Hawai'i @ Washington State | 10–42 | -12.6 | -18.5 | -32.0 | 19.4 |
| 2024 | 8 | New Mexico @ Utah State | 50–45 | -1.0 | +1.0 | +5.0 | 6.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | Wyoming @ San José State | 14–24 | -19.2 | -13.0 | -10.0 | 9.2 |
| 2024 | 8 | UNLV @ Oregon State | 33–25 | +7.8 | +6.5 | +8.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Troy @ South Alabama | 9–25 | -9.0 | -10.0 | -16.0 | 7.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | Georgia State @ Marshall | 20–35 | -18.2 | -9.5 | -15.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina | 34–24 | +2.0 | +6.5 | +10.0 | 8.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | James Madison @ Georgia Southern | 14–28 | +13.3 | +9.5 | -14.0 | 27.3 |
| 2024 | 8 | Texas State @ Old Dominion | 14–24 | +19.1 | +10.5 | -10.0 | 29.1 |
| 2024 | 8 | Arkansas State @ Southern Miss | 44–28 | +5.8 | +7.0 | +16.0 | 10.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.