Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9 | Temple @ Tulsa | 38–37 | +13.5 | +4.5 | +1.0 | 12.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | Akron @ Buffalo | 24–16 | -6.9 | -10.0 | +8.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Ball State @ Northern Illinois | 7–21 | -2.2 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 11.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | Bowling Green @ Kent State | 21–24 | +1.8 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Massachusetts @ Central Michigan | 13–38 | -24.6 | -16.5 | -25.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Ohio @ Eastern Michigan | 28–21 | +11.9 | +12.0 | +7.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) | 17–26 | +4.6 | -2.5 | -9.0 | 13.6 |
| 2025 | 8 | Tennessee @ Alabama | 20–37 | -14.6 | -8.5 | -17.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Texas A&M @ Arkansas | 45–42 | +9.9 | +7.5 | +3.0 | 6.9 |
| 2025 | 8 | Missouri @ Auburn | 23–17 | +2.7 | +1.5 | +6.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Mississippi State @ Florida | 21–23 | -12.7 | -9.5 | -2.0 | 10.7 |
| 2025 | 8 | Ole Miss @ Georgia | 35–43 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Texas @ Kentucky | 16–13 | +18.3 | +12.5 | +3.0 | 15.3 |
| 2025 | 8 | Oklahoma @ South Carolina | 26–7 | -2.9 | +4.5 | +19.0 | 21.9 |
| 2025 | 8 | LSU @ Vanderbilt | 24–31 | -6.6 | -1.5 | -7.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | USC @ Notre Dame | 24–34 | -10.2 | -10.5 | -10.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Nebraska @ Minnesota | 6–24 | +3.1 | +7.0 | -18.0 | 21.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Washington @ Michigan | 7–24 | +2.8 | -4.0 | -17.0 | 19.8 |
| 2025 | 8 | Purdue @ Northwestern | 0–19 | -11.0 | -3.5 | -19.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Penn State @ Iowa | 24–25 | -13.5 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 12.5 |
| 2025 | 8 | Oregon @ Rutgers | 56–10 | +15.8 | +17.5 | +46.0 | 30.2 |
| 2025 | 8 | Ohio State @ Wisconsin | 34–0 | +34.2 | +24.5 | +34.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Michigan State @ Indiana | 13–38 | -39.4 | -26.5 | -25.0 | 14.4 |
| 2025 | 8 | Maryland @ UCLA | 17–20 | -6.7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 3.7 |
| 2025 | 8 | FCS @ Oregon State | 13–45 | -26.4 | -21.0 | -32.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Washington State @ Virginia | 20–22 | -15.2 | -16.5 | -2.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | North Carolina @ California | 18–21 | -12.1 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 9.1 |
| 2025 | 8 | Louisville @ Miami | 24–21 | -11.5 | -10.5 | +3.0 | 14.5 |
| 2025 | 8 | SMU @ Clemson | 35–24 | -8.1 | -3.5 | +11.0 | 19.1 |
| 2025 | 8 | Georgia Tech @ Duke | 27–18 | -7.6 | -3.5 | +9.0 | 16.6 |
| 2025 | 8 | Florida State @ Stanford | 13–20 | +17.4 | +17.5 | -7.0 | 24.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Pittsburgh @ Syracuse | 30–13 | +13.0 | +9.5 | +17.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | UConn @ Boston College | 38–23 | +9.3 | +2.5 | +15.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Texas Tech @ Arizona State | 22–26 | +20.2 | +8.0 | -4.0 | 24.2 |
| 2025 | 8 | Utah @ BYU | 21–24 | +3.4 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Arizona @ Houston | 28–31 | -3.7 | +2.0 | -3.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State | 49–17 | +29.0 | +23.5 | +32.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Baylor @ TCU | 36–42 | -5.0 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | West Virginia @ UCF | 13–45 | -14.2 | -6.5 | -32.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Florida International @ Western Kentucky | 25–6 | -21.7 | -10.0 | +19.0 | 40.7 |
| 2025 | 8 | New Mexico State @ Liberty | 27–30 | -15.8 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 12.8 |
| 2025 | 8 | Delaware @ Jacksonville State | 25–38 | -3.1 | +3.0 | -13.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | UTEP vs Sam Houston | 35–17 | +2.8 | +3.5 | +18.0 | 15.2 |
| 2025 | 8 | Wyoming @ Air Force | 21–24 | -8.2 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 5.2 |
| 2025 | 8 | UNLV @ Boise State | 31–56 | -13.5 | -13.0 | -25.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Hawai'i @ Colorado State | 31–19 | -0.1 | -2.5 | +12.0 | 12.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Nevada @ New Mexico | 22–24 | -18.1 | -14.0 | -2.0 | 16.1 |
| 2025 | 8 | San José State @ Utah State | 25–30 | -7.3 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | 8 | Arkansas State @ South Alabama | 15–14 | -5.6 | -8.5 | +1.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Coastal Carolina @ App State | 45–37 | -10.2 | -10.5 | +8.0 | 18.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.