Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	7	Iowa State @ Kansas State	33–20	+16.1	+6.5	+13.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	TCU @ Oklahoma	31–52	-7.4	-12.5	-21.0	13.6
2021	7	Oklahoma State @ Texas	32–24	-1.6	-3.3	+8.0	9.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Navy @ Memphis	17–35	-2.8	-11.0	-18.0	15.2
2021	7	UCF @ Cincinnati	21–56	-29.4	-21.5	-35.0	5.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Tulsa @ South Florida	32–31	-1.9	+7.0	+1.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Akron @ Miami (OH)	21–34	-16.6	-20.0	-13.0	3.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Ball State @ Eastern Michigan	38–31	+6.5	+1.0	+7.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Toledo @ Central Michigan	23–26	+6.8	+5.0	-3.0	9.8
2021	7	Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois	26–34	-19.6	-9.0	-8.0	11.6
2021	7	Ohio @ Buffalo	26–27	-8.1	-7.5	-1.0	7.1
2021	7	Kent State @ Western Michigan	31–64	-1.3	-6.8	-33.0	31.7
2021	7	App State @ Louisiana	13–41	+12.7	+4.3	-28.0	40.7
2021	7	Georgia Southern @ South Alabama	14–41	-0.5	-2.5	-27.0	26.5
2021	7	Troy @ Texas State	31–28	+8.5	+7.5	+3.0	5.5
2021	7	California @ Oregon	17–24	-8.5	-13.5	-7.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Stanford @ Washington State	31–34	-4.4	-1.0	-3.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	UCLA @ Washington	24–17	-3.8	-1.5	+7.0	10.8
2021	7	Arizona @ Colorado	0–34	-6.4	-6.0	-34.0	27.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Arizona State @ Utah	21–35	+2.3	-1.5	-14.0	16.3
2021	7	Air Force @ Boise State	24–17	-3.2	-3.0	+7.0	10.2
2021	7	Colorado State @ New Mexico	36–7	+18.2	+13.0	+29.0	10.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	7	Utah State @ UNLV	28–24	-0.6	+7.3	+4.0	4.6
2021	7	Fresno State @ Wyoming	17–0	-0.8	+3.0	+17.0	17.8
2021	7	Hawai'i @ Nevada	17–34	-8.9	-14.0	-17.0	8.1
2021	7	San Diego State @ San José State	19–13	+12.2	+9.8	+6.0	6.2
2021	6	Georgia @ Auburn	34–10	+17.9	+14.5	+24.0	6.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Vanderbilt @ Florida	0–42	-31.1	-39.0	-42.0	10.9
2021	6	LSU @ Kentucky	21–42	-2.2	-2.0	-21.0	18.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Arkansas @ Ole Miss	51–52	-0.9	-5.0	-1.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	North Texas @ Missouri	35–48	-10.4	-18.5	-13.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	South Carolina @ Tennessee	20–45	-16.9	-10.5	-25.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Alabama @ Texas A&M	38–41	+13.0	+18.5	-3.0	16.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Charlotte @ Florida International	45–33	+10.1	+3.5	+12.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Florida Atlantic @ UAB	14–31	+2.5	-3.5	-17.0	19.5
2021	6	Old Dominion @ Marshall	13–20	-7.8	-21.0	-7.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	UTEP @ Southern Miss	26–13	+5.0	+1.3	+13.0	8.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	UTSA @ Western Kentucky	52–46	+2.6	-3.5	+6.0	3.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Middle Tennessee @ Liberty	13–41	-23.5	-20.0	-28.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Georgia Tech @ Duke	31–27	+8.2	+4.5	+4.0	4.2
2021	6	Virginia @ Louisville	34–33	-5.6	-2.5	+1.0	6.6
2021	6	Florida State @ North Carolina	35–25	-14.6	-17.5	+10.0	24.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Wake Forest @ Syracuse	40–37	+4.4	+6.0	+3.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech	32–29	+11.1	-1.0	+3.0	8.1
2021	6	Wisconsin @ Illinois	24–0	-1.2	+12.0	+24.0	25.2
2021	6	Penn State @ Iowa	20–23	-8.5	-2.5	-3.0	5.5
2021	6	Maryland @ Ohio State	17–66	-25.4	-21.8	-49.0	23.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Michigan @ Nebraska	32–29	-7.6	+2.5	+3.0	10.6
2021	6	Michigan State @ Rutgers	31–13	+7.3	+4.0	+18.0	10.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	UConn @ Massachusetts	13–27	+17.9	+3.0	-14.0	31.9

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.