Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	7	Arizona @ Washington State	44–6	-0.8	-7.5	+38.0	38.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	USC @ Notre Dame	20–48	-10.5	-3.0	-28.0	17.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	UCLA @ Oregon State	24–36	-3.4	-3.5	-12.0	8.6
2023	7	California @ Utah	14–34	-13.6	-9.5	-20.0	6.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Oregon @ Washington	33–36	+3.0	-3.0	-3.0	6.0
2023	7	NC State @ Duke	3–24	-10.9	-3.5	-21.0	10.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Syracuse @ Florida State	3–41	-20.9	-18.5	-38.0	17.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Louisville @ Pittsburgh	21–38	+21.2	+7.0	-17.0	38.2
2023	7	Miami @ North Carolina	31–41	-17.6	-2.5	-10.0	7.6
2023	7	Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech	13–30	-4.0	-1.5	-17.0	13.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	West Virginia @ Houston	39–41	+3.4	+3.0	-2.0	5.4
2023	7	Iowa State @ Cincinnati	30–10	+0.6	-5.0	+20.0	19.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Kansas @ Oklahoma State	32–39	+4.9	+3.0	-7.0	11.9
2023	7	BYU @ TCU	11–44	-7.9	-5.0	-33.0	25.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Kansas State @ Texas Tech	38–21	-8.9	-1.0	+17.0	25.9
2023	7	Tulane @ Memphis	31–21	-0.9	+4.5	+10.0	10.9
2023	7	UAB @ UTSA	20–41	+4.9	-9.0	-21.0	25.9
2023	7	Temple @ North Texas	14–45	-6.4	-6.5	-31.0	24.6
2023	7	Navy @ Charlotte	14–0	-6.9	+3.0	+14.0	20.9
2023	7	SMU @ East Carolina	31–10	+8.7	+11.5	+21.0	12.3
2023	7	Florida Atlantic @ South Florida	56–14	-3.0	-2.5	+42.0	45.0
2023	7	Coastal Carolina @ App State	27–24	+1.4	-4.5	+3.0	1.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Marshall @ Georgia State	24–41	-1.8	-1.5	-17.0	15.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Georgia Southern @ James Madison	13–41	-3.9	-6.0	-28.0	24.1
2023	7	UL Monroe @ Texas State	20–21	-24.9	-18.5	-1.0	23.9
2023	7	Toledo @ Ball State	13–6	+20.9	+17.5	+7.0	13.9
2023	7	Akron @ Central Michigan	10–17	-4.9	-10.5	-7.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Bowling Green @ Buffalo	24–14	-4.6	-3.0	+10.0	14.6
2023	7	Kent State @ Eastern Michigan	14–28	-2.2	-7.5	-14.0	11.8
2023	7	Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan	34–21	+14.0	+7.5	+13.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Ohio @ Northern Illinois	13–23	+4.7	+5.5	-10.0	14.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Boise State @ Colorado State	30–31	+4.0	+7.5	-1.0	5.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Fresno State @ Utah State	37–32	+0.1	+5.5	+5.0	4.9
2023	7	San Diego State @ Hawai'i	41–34	+1.3	+6.0	+7.0	5.7
2023	7	San José State @ New Mexico	52–24	-0.0	+6.5	+28.0	28.0
2023	7	UNLV @ Nevada	45–27	+10.3	+7.5	+18.0	7.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	7	Wyoming @ Air Force	27–34	-18.7	-12.5	-7.0	11.7
2023	6	Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee	45–30	+4.1	-3.0	+15.0	10.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	6	Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech	35–28	+4.7	+6.0	+7.0	2.3
2023	6	Sam Houston @ Liberty	16–21	-24.8	-21.0	-5.0	19.8
2023	6	Florida International @ New Mexico State	17–34	-9.7	-6.5	-17.0	7.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	6	Boston College @ Army	27–24	-9.0	-2.5	+3.0	12.0
2023	6	Vanderbilt @ Florida	14–38	-17.8	-18.5	-24.0	6.2
2023	6	Kentucky @ Georgia	13–51	-8.4	-14.5	-38.0	29.6
2023	6	Nebraska @ Illinois	20–7	-0.7	-3.0	+13.0	13.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	6	Purdue @ Iowa	14–20	+0.5	-2.5	-6.0	6.5
2023	6	Michigan @ Minnesota	52–10	+21.8	+18.5	+42.0	20.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	6	Western Michigan @ Mississippi State	28–41	-10.4	-21.0	-13.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	6	LSU @ Missouri	49–39	+6.4	+6.0	+10.0	3.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	6	FCS @ Northwestern	20–23	-25.1	-23.0	-3.0	22.1

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.