Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8 | Ohio @ Miami (OH) | 20–30 | -6.2 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Kent State @ Bowling Green | 6–27 | -19.3 | -24.0 | -21.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Western Michigan @ Buffalo | 48–41 | -14.6 | +1.5 | +7.0 | 21.6 |
| 2024 | 8 | Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan | 34–38 | +2.4 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 6.4 |
| 2024 | 8 | Toledo @ Northern Illinois | 13–6 | -7.6 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 14.6 |
| 2024 | 8 | UAB @ South Florida | 25–35 | -7.6 | -14.0 | -10.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | East Carolina @ Army | 28–45 | -30.8 | -17.5 | -17.0 | 13.8 |
| 2024 | 8 | Charlotte @ Navy | 17–51 | -16.9 | -16.5 | -34.0 | 17.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Florida Atlantic @ UTSA | 24–38 | +4.2 | -4.0 | -14.0 | 18.2 |
| 2024 | 8 | North Texas @ Memphis | 44–52 | -5.5 | -10.5 | -8.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | Rice @ Tulane | 10–24 | -27.9 | -21.5 | -14.0 | 13.9 |
| 2024 | 8 | Tulsa @ Temple | 10–20 | -15.7 | -3.0 | -10.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | South Carolina @ Alabama | 25–27 | -13.9 | -21.0 | -2.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Mississippi State @ Georgia | 31–41 | -27.4 | -34.0 | -10.0 | 17.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Vanderbilt @ Kentucky | 20–13 | -13.2 | -12.5 | +7.0 | 20.2 |
| 2024 | 7 | Ole Miss @ LSU | 26–29 | +5.9 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 8.9 |
| 2024 | 7 | Missouri @ Massachusetts | 45–3 | +13.1 | +27.0 | +42.0 | 28.9 |
| 2024 | 7 | Texas vs Oklahoma | 34–3 | +14.0 | +17.0 | +31.0 | 17.0 |
| 2024 | 7 | Florida @ Tennessee | 17–23 | -15.9 | -14.0 | -6.0 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 7 | Purdue @ Illinois | 49–50 | -30.6 | -22.5 | -1.0 | 29.6 |
| 2024 | 7 | Washington @ Iowa | 16–40 | +2.9 | -2.5 | -24.0 | 26.9 |
| 2024 | 7 | Northwestern @ Maryland | 37–10 | -14.1 | -11.0 | +27.0 | 41.1 |
| 2024 | 7 | Minnesota @ UCLA | 21–17 | +7.9 | +3.5 | +4.0 | 3.9 |
| 2024 | 7 | Ohio State @ Oregon | 31–32 | +9.6 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 10.6 |
| 2024 | 7 | Penn State @ USC | 33–30 | +1.2 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 7 | Wisconsin @ Rutgers | 42–7 | -0.6 | -1.3 | +35.0 | 35.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Stanford @ Notre Dame | 7–49 | -27.8 | -22.5 | -42.0 | 14.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Syracuse @ NC State | 24–17 | +3.9 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | California @ Pittsburgh | 15–17 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -2.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Clemson @ Wake Forest | 49–14 | +19.9 | +21.0 | +35.0 | 15.1 |
| 2024 | 7 | Georgia Tech @ North Carolina | 41–34 | +10.2 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Louisville @ Virginia | 24–20 | +5.7 | +7.0 | +4.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Utah @ Arizona State | 19–27 | -13.1 | +5.5 | -8.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Arizona @ BYU | 19–41 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -22.0 | 14.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Kansas State @ Colorado | 31–28 | -1.8 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 7 | Cincinnati @ UCF | 19–13 | +8.7 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Iowa State @ West Virginia | 28–16 | +5.2 | +3.0 | +12.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Florida International @ Liberty | 24–31 | -23.2 | -15.5 | -7.0 | 16.2 |
| 2024 | 7 | New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State | 13–54 | -30.3 | -21.0 | -41.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech | 21–48 | +0.4 | -5.0 | -27.0 | 27.4 |
| 2024 | 7 | UTEP @ Western Kentucky | 17–44 | -25.8 | -19.0 | -27.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Air Force @ New Mexico | 37–52 | -14.9 | -7.0 | -15.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Boise State @ Hawai'i | 28–7 | +15.4 | +21.0 | +21.0 | 5.6 |
| 2024 | 7 | San José State @ Colorado State | 24–31 | +2.8 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | 7 | Washington State @ Fresno State | 25–17 | +8.8 | +3.5 | +8.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Oregon State @ Nevada | 37–42 | +0.0 | +3.0 | -5.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | San Diego State @ Wyoming | 27–24 | +4.9 | -1.5 | +3.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | UNLV @ Utah State | 50–34 | +25.4 | +18.5 | +16.0 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | 7 | Coastal Carolina @ James Madison | 7–39 | -13.1 | -7.0 | -32.0 | 18.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Marshall @ Georgia Southern | 23–24 | -3.2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 2.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.