Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8 | Georgia State @ Georgia Southern | 24–41 | -8.2 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Old Dominion @ James Madison | 27–63 | -0.7 | -3.0 | -36.0 | 35.3 |
| 2025 | 8 | Texas State @ Marshall | 37–40 | -20.8 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 17.8 |
| 2025 | 8 | Troy @ UL Monroe | 37–14 | +7.2 | +4.5 | +23.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Southern Miss @ Louisiana | 22–10 | +4.5 | +4.5 | +12.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Tulsa @ East Carolina | 27–41 | -24.9 | -16.5 | -14.0 | 10.9 |
| 2025 | 8 | Memphis @ UAB | 24–31 | +25.6 | +23.5 | -7.0 | 32.6 |
| 2025 | 8 | Army @ Tulane | 17–24 | -14.4 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 7.4 |
| 2025 | 8 | Temple @ Charlotte | 49–14 | +13.4 | +9.5 | +35.0 | 21.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Florida Atlantic @ South Florida | 13–48 | -22.8 | -20.5 | -35.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | UTSA @ North Texas | 17–55 | +7.0 | -4.0 | -38.0 | 45.0 |
| 2025 | 8 | Akron @ Ball State | 28–42 | +2.4 | +2.0 | -14.0 | 16.4 |
| 2025 | 8 | Central Michigan @ Bowling Green | 27–6 | -8.5 | -3.0 | +21.0 | 29.5 |
| 2025 | 8 | Buffalo @ Massachusetts | 28–21 | +11.1 | +16.5 | +7.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) | 30–44 | -16.2 | -12.5 | -14.0 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 8 | Kent State @ Toledo | 10–45 | -23.1 | -25.5 | -35.0 | 11.9 |
| 2025 | 8 | Northern Illinois @ Ohio | 21–48 | -12.6 | -10.5 | -27.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Georgia @ Auburn | 20–10 | -1.5 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 11.5 |
| 2025 | 7 | South Carolina @ LSU | 10–20 | -5.1 | -8.5 | -10.0 | 4.9 |
| 2025 | 7 | Washington State @ Ole Miss | 21–24 | -31.8 | -33.0 | -3.0 | 28.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Alabama @ Missouri | 27–24 | +9.4 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 6.4 |
| 2025 | 7 | Arkansas @ Tennessee | 31–34 | -19.2 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 16.2 |
| 2025 | 7 | Oklahoma vs Texas | 6–23 | +1.5 | -2.5 | -17.0 | 18.5 |
| 2025 | 7 | Florida @ Texas A&M | 17–34 | -11.5 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Rutgers @ Washington | 19–38 | -9.0 | -9.5 | -19.0 | 10.0 |
| 2025 | 7 | UCLA @ Michigan State | 38–13 | -3.5 | -7.0 | +25.0 | 28.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Purdue @ Minnesota | 20–27 | -12.0 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 5.0 |
| 2025 | 7 | Ohio State @ Illinois | 34–16 | +23.5 | +15.0 | +18.0 | 5.5 |
| 2025 | 7 | Northwestern @ Penn State | 22–21 | -7.2 | -20.5 | +1.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Nebraska @ Maryland | 34–31 | +2.5 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Michigan @ USC | 13–31 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -18.0 | 14.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Iowa @ Wisconsin | 37–0 | +9.2 | +5.0 | +37.0 | 27.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Indiana @ Oregon | 30–20 | -2.0 | -7.0 | +10.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Clemson @ Boston College | 41–10 | +18.8 | +14.0 | +31.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Pittsburgh @ Florida State | 34–31 | -7.9 | -10.5 | +3.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech | 20–35 | -12.5 | -14.0 | -15.0 | 2.5 |
| 2025 | 7 | Stanford @ SMU | 10–34 | -19.3 | -19.5 | -24.0 | 4.7 |
| 2025 | 7 | NC State @ Notre Dame | 7–36 | -24.6 | -23.5 | -29.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Wake Forest @ Oregon State | 39–14 | +9.9 | +1.5 | +25.0 | 15.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | BYU @ Arizona | 33–27 | +13.8 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 7.8 |
| 2025 | 7 | UCF @ Cincinnati | 11–20 | -14.6 | -10.5 | -9.0 | 5.6 |
| 2025 | 7 | Iowa State @ Colorado | 17–24 | +2.7 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | TCU @ Kansas State | 28–41 | +0.4 | +3.0 | -13.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Houston @ Oklahoma State | 39–17 | +18.4 | +14.5 | +22.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Kansas @ Texas Tech | 17–42 | -17.0 | -13.5 | -25.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Arizona State @ Utah | 10–42 | -9.8 | -9.5 | -32.0 | 22.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Liberty @ UTEP | 19–8 | +0.8 | +1.5 | +11.0 | 10.2 |
| 2025 | 7 | Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee | 22–20 | +2.2 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston | 29–27 | +18.7 | +7.0 | +2.0 | 16.7 |
| 2025 | 7 | Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State | 7–35 | +16.3 | +4.5 | -28.0 | 44.3 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.