NHL Forecast History

Graded games with the pregame forecast each was judged by.

Walk-forward replay of the 2022-23 through 2025-26 regular seasons with the same windows and goal map, kept separate from live forecasts. Log loss and Brier score judge the home win probability (a coin flip scores 0.693 and 0.250); total MAE and bias judge the model total in goals. The comparison with the closing line follows.

Games5225

Log loss0.6866coin flip 0.693

Brier0.2460coin flip 0.250

Accuracy57.0%

Total MAE1.90goals

Total bias-0.10goals

Accuracy by season
Season	Games	Log loss	Brier	Accuracy	Home wins	Total MAE	Total bias
2025-26	1312	0.7085	0.2563	54.0%	52.2%	1.90	-0.23
2024-25	1289	0.6812	0.2430	58.3%	56.3%	1.93	-0.16
2023-24	1312	0.6831	0.2443	58.2%	54.1%	1.93	+0.01
2022-23	1312	0.6734	0.2402	57.7%	52.4%	1.86	0.00
All	5225	0.6866	0.2460	57.0%	53.7%	1.90	-0.10

Against the closing line

Closing moneylines and totals come from ESPN's public odds data. The moneyline is converted to a home win probability with the vig removed. Model and market are scored on the same games: only those with a close, so these figures differ from the full-sample ones above. Lower is better.

Model log loss0.68625134 games

Market log loss0.6613closing moneyline

Gap to market+0.0249lower is better

Model total MAE1.923909 games

Market total MAE1.87closing total

Gap to market+0.05goals

Model against the closing line by season
Season	Games	Model log loss	Market log loss	Gap	Total games	Model total MAE	Market total MAE
2025-26	1312	0.7085	0.6817	+0.0268	1309	1.90	1.85
2024-25	1289	0.6812	0.6579	+0.0233	1289	1.93	1.90
2023-24	1312	0.6831	0.6552	+0.0279	1311	1.93	1.87
2022-23	1221	0.6707	0.6495	+0.0213	0	–	–
All	5134	0.6862	0.6613	+0.0249	3909	1.92	1.87

Calibration

Observed home win rate against the predicted probability in ten bins. Points above the diagonal mean the model was too pessimistic about the home side, below it too confident.