NHL Forecast History
Graded games with the pregame forecast each was judged by.
Published forecasts archived before puck drop and graded against official final scores. Each game uses its last pregame revision. Log loss and Brier score judge the home win probability (a coin flip scores 0.693 and 0.250); total MAE and bias judge the model total in goals. The comparison with the closing line follows.
Games107
Log loss0.6615coin flip 0.693
Brier0.2350coin flip 0.250
Accuracy58.9%
Total MAE1.89goals
Total bias-0.07goals
Against the closing line
The close is the last partner-book quote from the 15 minutes before puck drop. The moneyline is converted to a home win probability with the vig removed. Model and market are scored on the same games: only those with a close, so these figures differ from the full-sample ones above. Lower is better.
Model log loss0.704219 games
Market log loss0.6896closing moneyline
Gap to market+0.0146lower is better
Model total MAE1.4319 games
Market total MAE1.45closing total
Gap to market-0.01goals
Pure-model log loss: 0.7300 on the same 19games. The published forecast blends in the morning market price, so its error and the close's are correlated.
Calibration
Observed home win rate against the predicted probability in ten bins. Points above the diagonal mean the model was too pessimistic about the home side, below it too confident.
Times shown in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).
| Date | Matchup | Score | Away xG | Home xG | Home win | Close home win | Total | Close total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche | 3-2SO | 2.81 | 2.96 | 52.3% | 58.8% | 5.77 | 6.5 | |
| Montréal Canadiens at Washington Capitals | 4-5 | 3.07 | 3.38 | 54.7% | 53.3% | 6.45 | 6.5 | |
| Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks | 6-3 | 3.49 | 3.25 | 46.3% | – | 6.73 | – | |
| Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings | 4-1 | 3.88 | 2.89 | 35.4% | 46.7% | 6.78 | 6.5 | |
| Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks | 4-2 | 2.55 | 3.87 | 69.6% | 60.2% | 6.42 | 6.5 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth | 4-5 | 2.85 | 3.81 | 64.3% | 58.8% | 6.66 | 6.5 | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators | 5-2 | 3.18 | 2.99 | 47.0% | 45.2% | 6.17 | 6.5 | |
| Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars | 3-2 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 41.9% | 50.0% | 5.50 | 5.5 | |
| Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets | 2-5 | 3.48 | 3.16 | 45.2% | 50.8% | 6.64 | 6.5 | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks | 3-5 | 4.00 | 2.72 | 31.4% | 41.6% | 6.72 | 6.5 | |
| Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders | 2-3 | 2.43 | 4.11 | 74.1% | 64.8% | 6.54 | 6.5 | |
| St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators | 7-2 | 2.44 | 3.07 | 60.3% | 46.7% | 5.51 | 5.5 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers | 1-4 | 3.07 | 2.99 | 48.7% | 40.9% | 6.06 | 5.5 | |
| Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers | 3-2SO | 2.57 | 2.54 | 49.6% | 51.2% | 5.11 | 5.5 | |
| Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes | 2-4 | 2.90 | 3.96 | 65.6% | 58.0% | 6.86 | 6.5 | |
| Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens | 3-4SO | 3.17 | 3.00 | 47.3% | 58.4% | 6.18 | 6.5 | |
| Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets | 7-3 | 2.54 | 3.36 | 63.0% | 54.0% | 5.90 | 5.5 | |
| New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings | 5-4OT | 2.87 | 3.04 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 5.91 | 5.5 | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild | 2-4 | 2.65 | 2.88 | 53.9% | 50.0% | 5.53 | 5.5 | |
| Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils | 4-1 | 2.97 | 2.92 | 49.2% | 52.2% | 5.89 | 5.5 | |
| Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres | 3-5 | 2.74 | 3.16 | 56.8% | – | 5.90 | – | |
| Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers | 4-1 | 3.23 | 2.07 | 31.2% | – | 5.30 | – | |
| Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers | 2-6 | 2.36 | 4.31 | 77.3% | – | 6.67 | – | |
| Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals | 5-3 | 2.46 | 3.68 | 68.6% | – | 6.14 | – | |
| Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames | 4-2 | 3.23 | 3.05 | 47.1% | – | 6.28 | – | |
| Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights | 1-2OT | 2.65 | 3.60 | 64.7% | – | 6.25 | – | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders | 5-3 | 3.19 | 2.70 | 42.1% | – | 5.90 | – | |
| Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks | 5-2 | 3.68 | 2.25 | 28.1% | – | 5.93 | – | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche | 6-3 | 2.56 | 3.91 | 70.0% | – | 6.47 | – | |
| Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues | 3-5 | 2.28 | 2.70 | 57.3% | – | 4.98 | – | |
| Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins | 1-2SO | 3.41 | 3.04 | 44.3% | – | 6.45 | – | |
| Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators | 2-3SO | 2.39 | 3.26 | 64.0% | – | 5.65 | – | |
| Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens | 0-1SO | 2.61 | 3.42 | 62.7% | – | 6.03 | – | |
| Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres | 4-1 | 3.29 | 3.13 | 47.5% | – | 6.41 | – | |
| Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers | 4-1 | 3.04 | 3.14 | 51.5% | – | 6.18 | – | |
| Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks | 3-1 | 4.10 | 3.07 | 35.2% | – | 7.17 | – | |
| Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils | 1-4 | 2.59 | 4.02 | 70.8% | – | 6.61 | – | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins | 1-5 | 2.42 | 3.25 | 63.3% | – | 5.67 | – | |
| Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets | 5-1 | 3.07 | 3.11 | 50.7% | – | 6.18 | – | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets | 2-3SO | 3.83 | 3.27 | 41.9% | – | 7.11 | – | |
| New York Rangers at Washington Capitals | 1-3 | 2.53 | 3.80 | 69.0% | – | 6.33 | – | |
| Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings | 6-3 | 2.56 | 2.85 | 54.9% | – | 5.41 | – | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights | 3-4SO | 2.55 | 4.01 | 71.3% | – | 6.55 | – | |
| Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames | 7-3 | 3.46 | 1.80 | 23.8% | – | 5.26 | – | |
| San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues | 3-2OT | 2.55 | 3.31 | 62.1% | – | 5.86 | – | |
| Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders | 1-4 | 2.02 | 3.03 | 67.1% | – | 5.05 | – | |
| Nashville Predators at Montréal Canadiens | 5-2 | 2.68 | 3.39 | 61.2% | – | 6.08 | – | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators | 1-2 | 2.75 | 3.44 | 60.7% | – | 6.19 | – | |
| Utah Mammoth at Boston Bruins | 1-6 | 2.62 | 2.97 | 55.8% | – | 5.59 | – | |
| Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres | 4-0 | 3.20 | 3.03 | 47.4% | – | 6.24 | – | |
| Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning | 2-3 | 3.22 | 3.75 | 57.9% | – | 6.96 | – | |
| Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes | 2-7 | 2.64 | 5.00 | 80.2% | – | 7.64 | – | |
| Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks | 5-2 | 4.66 | 3.24 | 30.9% | – | 7.89 | – | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals | 3-5 | 3.35 | 3.23 | 48.2% | – | 6.57 | – | |
| Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets | 2-3 | 3.75 | 1.94 | 22.6% | – | 5.69 | – | |
| Florida Panthers at Los Angeles Kings | 2-1 | 2.94 | 3.43 | 57.5% | – | 6.37 | – | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken | 6-2 | 3.03 | 3.28 | 53.9% | – | 6.31 | – | |
| St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks | 2-4 | 3.58 | 2.41 | 31.9% | – | 5.98 | – | |
| New York Islanders at New York Rangers | 2-5 | 2.22 | 2.76 | 59.4% | – | 4.98 | – | |
| Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs | 4-5OT | 3.51 | 3.11 | 43.9% | – | 6.62 | – | |
| Carolina Hurricanes at Montréal Canadiens | 6-4 | 2.80 | 2.97 | 52.8% | – | 5.76 | – | |
| Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings | 3-5 | 3.48 | 2.56 | 35.6% | – | 6.04 | – | |
| Utah Mammoth at New Jersey Devils | 5-3 | 3.44 | 2.34 | 32.7% | – | 5.78 | – | |
| Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres | 2-3OT | 3.83 | 3.61 | 46.9% | – | 7.43 | – | |
| San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars | 0-5 | 3.02 | 3.73 | 60.7% | – | 6.75 | – | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins | 3-2 | 2.60 | 3.83 | 68.3% | – | 6.43 | – | |
| Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins | 4-1 | 2.54 | 3.35 | 62.8% | – | 5.90 | – | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning | 1-4 | 3.21 | 3.63 | 56.2% | – | 6.85 | – | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks | 3-2 | 3.90 | 2.53 | 29.8% | – | 6.43 | – | |
| Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks | 2-3OT | 3.28 | 3.85 | 58.2% | – | 7.13 | – | |
| Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken | 1-6 | 2.02 | 3.93 | 78.1% | – | 5.96 | – | |
| Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers | 2-4 | 3.14 | 2.48 | 39.3% | – | 5.61 | – | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings | 3-2 | 2.46 | 2.62 | 52.7% | – | 5.08 | – | |
| Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks | 4-5OT | 3.16 | 3.17 | 50.2% | – | 6.33 | – | |
| Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks | 1-4 | 2.50 | 2.89 | 56.5% | – | 5.39 | – | |
| St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche | 1-6 | 2.65 | 3.22 | 59.1% | – | 5.88 | – | |
| Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild | 1-4 | 2.68 | 3.30 | 59.8% | – | 5.97 | – | |
| Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators | 1-2 | 3.33 | 2.79 | 41.6% | – | 6.12 | – | |
| New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders | 0-6 | 2.39 | 2.67 | 54.8% | – | 5.05 | – | |
| Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers | 3-2OT | 3.09 | 1.98 | 31.4% | – | 5.07 | – | |
| Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs | 3-2 | 4.15 | 3.12 | 35.4% | – | 7.27 | – | |
| Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres | 3-4 | 2.13 | 3.80 | 75.0% | – | 5.93 | – | |
| Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning | 1-3 | 2.77 | 3.97 | 67.7% | – | 6.74 | – | |
| Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers | 1-3 | 2.83 | 3.20 | 55.8% | – | 6.04 | – | |
| Utah Mammoth at Columbus Blue Jackets | 4-1 | 3.30 | 2.74 | 41.1% | – | 6.04 | – | |
| Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins | 5-6OT | 3.76 | 3.47 | 45.8% | – | 7.23 | – | |
| Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights | 4-3 | 2.72 | 3.77 | 65.8% | – | 6.49 | – | |
| St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars | 4-0 | 2.66 | 3.34 | 60.7% | – | 5.99 | – | |
| Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets | 4-3OT | 3.18 | 3.15 | 49.6% | – | 6.33 | – | |
| Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes | 5-2 | 2.92 | 4.29 | 69.3% | – | 7.21 | – | |
| New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings | 2-0 | 2.99 | 3.09 | 51.6% | – | 6.08 | – | |
| Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks | 9-7 | 5.02 | 2.09 | 13.5% | – | 7.11 | – | |
| Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks | 3-4OT | 3.45 | 3.56 | 51.6% | – | 7.02 | – | |
| Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Mammoth | 0-6 | 2.26 | 3.43 | 68.4% | – | 5.70 | – | |
| Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames | 6-1 | 2.34 | 2.72 | 56.6% | – | 5.05 | – | |
| Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators | 3-1 | 4.00 | 3.40 | 41.4% | – | 7.39 | – | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers | 1-5 | 3.49 | 2.76 | 38.7% | – | 6.26 | – | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils | 2-3OT | 3.56 | 2.77 | 37.9% | – | 6.34 | – | |
| Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets | 3-6 | 3.46 | 2.33 | 32.1% | – | 5.79 | – | |
| Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche | 4-8 | 2.29 | 2.99 | 61.7% | – | 5.27 | – |