Blog
2026-05-27
The Totals Problem
v2 beat v1 on moneyline and run line, but totals kept bleeding. Three fixes from inside the same modeling frame, none of them moved the number, and the question I probably should have been asking earlier.
2026-05-03
V2 Is Coming and It's Bringing Bayes with It. Our Findings on XGBoost.
One month of live predictions with a 14-feature XGBoost regressor. What held up, what didn't, and why I'm going hierarchical Bayesian for v2.