The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Offensive Player of the Year

2026 season · Through week 2

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA · WR

Historical top-three hit rate

17%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 17%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 4.81. Brier score: 1.03.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR 2 games played. Projected finish: 2,024.2 receiving yards · 19.9 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.21. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score receiving TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	277 rec yds, 4 TD	+5	#55	Experimental
2	Josh AllenBUF · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,329.5 passing yards · 33.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.83. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	582 pass yds, 5 TD, 0 INT · 92 rush yds, 4 TD	-1	#1	Experimental
3	Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,447.4 rushing yards · 14.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.42. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	208 rush yds, 2 TD · 91 rec yds, 1 TD	-1	#7	Experimental
4	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,619.1 rushing yards · 6.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.88. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	290 rush yds, 1 TD · 79 rec yds, 1 TD	+11	#2	Experimental
5	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,543.1 passing yards · 33.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.32. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	566 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 40 rush yds, 1 TD	+4	#8	Experimental
6	Brock PurdySF · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,129.8 passing yards · 39.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.16. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	492 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 59 rush yds, 1 TD	+8	#5	Experimental
7	Bijan RobinsonATL · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,411.9 rushing yards · 4.1 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.50. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	155 rush yds, 0 TD · 99 rec yds, 1 TD	-2	#39	Experimental
8	Christian McCaffreySF · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,025.6 rushing yards · 12.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.97. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	91 rush yds, 2 TD · 63 rec yds, 0 TD	-1	#29	Experimental
9	Jonathan TaylorIND · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,597.4 rushing yards · 24.6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.38. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	190 rush yds, 4 TD · 63 rec yds, 0 TD	+2	#14	Experimental
10	James CookBUF · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,625.5 rushing yards · 10.6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.72. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	192 rush yds, 1 TD · 16 rec yds, 0 TD	+8	#12	Experimental
11	Derrick HenryBAL · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,680.2 rushing yards · 23.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.65. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	212 rush yds, 4 TD · 38 rec yds, 0 TD	-8	#6	Experimental
12	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,649.5 passing yards · 33.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.74. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	467 pass yds, 5 TD, 2 INT · 62 rush yds, 0 TD	+4	#11	Experimental
13	Dak PrescottDAL · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,266.7 passing yards · 38.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.19. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	454 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 40 rush yds, 0 TD	+25	#4	Experimental
14	Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,555.6 receiving yards · 20.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.35. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score receiving TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	209 rec yds, 4 TD	+16	#338	Experimental
15	Chris OlaveNO · WR 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,664.9 receiving yards · 9.1 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.08. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	268 rec yds, 1 TD	+7	#278	Experimental
16	D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,270.9 rushing yards · 16.1 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.46. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	169 rush yds, 3 TD · 64 rec yds, 0 TD	-8	#19	Experimental
17	Jared GoffDET · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,550.2 passing yards · 41 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.11. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	533 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT · 9 rush yds, 0 TD	+6	#295	Experimental
18	Ashton JeantyLV · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,098.5 rushing yards · 2.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.29. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	150 rush yds, 0 TD · 60 rec yds, 2 TD	+3	#332	Experimental
19	Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,743.3 passing yards · 22.9 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.22. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	407 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 107 rush yds, 2 TD	-15	#3	Experimental
20	Bryce YoungCAR · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,149.9 passing yards · 35.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.56. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	648 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 16 rush yds, 1 TD	+13	#18	Experimental
21	Matthew StaffordLA · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,455.8 passing yards · 41.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.50. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	482 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT	+33	#40	Experimental
22	CeeDee LambDAL · WR 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,518 receiving yards · 12.8 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.04. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score receiving TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	197 rec yds, 3 TD	+46	#261	Experimental
23	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,917.3 passing yards · 23.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.31. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	559 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 74 rush yds, 1 TD	-10	#9	Experimental
24	Breece HallNYJ · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,124.1 rushing yards · 6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.72. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	131 rush yds, 1 TD · 79 rec yds, 0 TD	-5	#16	Experimental
25	Chase BrownCIN · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,075.4 rushing yards · 7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.62. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	136 rush yds, 1 TD · 24 rec yds, 0 TD	0	#38	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR

2 games played. Projected finish: 2,024.2 receiving yards · 19.9 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.21.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
receiving TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

277 rec yds, 4 TD

#55

Experimental

Josh AllenBUF · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,329.5 passing yards · 33.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.83.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

582 pass yds, 5 TD, 0 INT · 92 rush yds, 4 TD

-1

Experimental

Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,447.4 rushing yards · 14.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.42.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

208 rush yds, 2 TD · 91 rec yds, 1 TD

-1

Experimental

Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,619.1 rushing yards · 6.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.88.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

290 rush yds, 1 TD · 79 rec yds, 1 TD

+11

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,543.1 passing yards · 33.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.32.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

566 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 40 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Brock PurdySF · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,129.8 passing yards · 39.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.16.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

492 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 59 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Bijan RobinsonATL · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,411.9 rushing yards · 4.1 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.50.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

155 rush yds, 0 TD · 99 rec yds, 1 TD

-2

#39

Experimental

Christian McCaffreySF · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,025.6 rushing yards · 12.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.97.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

91 rush yds, 2 TD · 63 rec yds, 0 TD

-1

#29

Experimental

Jonathan TaylorIND · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,597.4 rushing yards · 24.6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.38.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

190 rush yds, 4 TD · 63 rec yds, 0 TD

#14

Experimental

James CookBUF · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,625.5 rushing yards · 10.6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.72.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

192 rush yds, 1 TD · 16 rec yds, 0 TD

#12

Experimental

Derrick HenryBAL · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,680.2 rushing yards · 23.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.65.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

212 rush yds, 4 TD · 38 rec yds, 0 TD

-8

Experimental

Jalen HurtsPHI · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,649.5 passing yards · 33.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.74.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

467 pass yds, 5 TD, 2 INT · 62 rush yds, 0 TD

#11

Experimental

Dak PrescottDAL · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,266.7 passing yards · 38.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.19.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

454 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 40 rush yds, 0 TD

+25

Experimental

Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,555.6 receiving yards · 20.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.35.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
receiving TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

209 rec yds, 4 TD

+16

#338

Experimental

Chris OlaveNO · WR

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,664.9 receiving yards · 9.1 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.08.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

268 rec yds, 1 TD

#278

Experimental

D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,270.9 rushing yards · 16.1 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.46.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

169 rush yds, 3 TD · 64 rec yds, 0 TD

-8

#19

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,550.2 passing yards · 41 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.11.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

533 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT · 9 rush yds, 0 TD

#295

Experimental

Ashton JeantyLV · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,098.5 rushing yards · 2.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.29.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

150 rush yds, 0 TD · 60 rec yds, 2 TD

#332

Experimental

Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,743.3 passing yards · 22.9 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.22.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

407 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 107 rush yds, 2 TD

-15

Experimental

Bryce YoungCAR · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,149.9 passing yards · 35.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.56.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

648 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 16 rush yds, 1 TD

+13

#18

Experimental

Matthew StaffordLA · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,455.8 passing yards · 41.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.50.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

482 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

+33

#40

Experimental

CeeDee LambDAL · WR

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,518 receiving yards · 12.8 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.04.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
receiving TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

197 rec yds, 3 TD

+46

#261

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,917.3 passing yards · 23.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.31.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

559 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 74 rush yds, 1 TD

-10

Experimental

Breece HallNYJ · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,124.1 rushing yards · 6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.72.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

131 rush yds, 1 TD · 79 rec yds, 0 TD

-5

#16

Experimental

Chase BrownCIN · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,075.4 rushing yards · 7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.62.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

136 rush yds, 1 TD · 24 rec yds, 0 TD

#38

Experimental