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2026 · Regular season · Updated outlook
Projected regular-season win totals for all 32 NFL teams, next to the preseason sportsbook line. Expected wins cover the full 17-game schedule. The range shows the middle 80% of simulated season outcomes, including uncertainty in team strength and individual games. Completed results are locked in; projected wins include wins already earned plus expected remaining wins.
Projected full-season wins minus the frozen preseason sportsbook total. The baseline informs the model; this is a change in outlook, not a live betting edge. Follows the conference and division filters.
Largest 6 gaps of 32 paired entries · wins
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.4 wins)
Projected 5.1 · Preseason 10.5
Tennessee Titans (-3.2 wins)
Projected 3.3 · Preseason 6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.1 wins)
Projected 12.6 · Preseason 9.5
San Francisco 49ers (+2.9 wins)
Projected 13.4 · Preseason 10.5
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5 wins)
Projected 11.0 · Preseason 8.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.4 wins)
Projected 8.1 · Preseason 10.5
0 = agreement · same scale for every row
32 teams · Sort by wins or difference.
| Team | 80% range80% | Book | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ersSF5-0 | 13.4+8.4 / 12 left | 11–16 | 10.5 | +2.9 |
| Jacksonville JaguarsJAX4-1 | 12.6+8.6 / 12 left | 10–15 | 9.5 | +3.1 |
| Baltimore RavensBAL4-1 | 12.2+8.2 / 12 left | 10–15 | 11.5 | +0.7 |
| Buffalo BillsBUF4-1 | 11.8+7.8 / 12 left | 9–14 | 10.5 | +1.3 |
| Kansas City ChiefsKC4-0 | 11.2+7.2 / 13 left | 8–14 | 10.5 | +0.7 |
| New England PatriotsNE3-2 | 11.2+8.2 / 12 left | 9–14 | 10.5 | +0.7 |
| Minnesota VikingsMIN5-0 | 11.0+6.0 / 12 left | 8–14 | 8.5 | +2.5 |
| Seattle SeahawksSEA3-2 | 10.5+7.5 / 12 left | 8–13 | 10.5 | -0.0 |
| Cincinnati BengalsCIN3-2 | 10.2+7.2 / 12 left | 8–13 | 9.5 | +0.7 |
| Denver BroncosDEN3-2 | 10.1+7.1 / 12 left | 7–13 | 9.5 | +0.6 |
| Chicago BearsCHI3-2 | 9.9+6.9 / 12 left | 7–13 | 9.5 | +0.4 |
| Los Angeles RamsLA2-3 | 9.9+7.9 / 12 left | 7–12 | 11.5 | -1.6 |
| Detroit LionsDET3-2 | 9.4+6.4 / 12 left | 7–12 | 10.5 | -1.1 |
| Atlanta FalconsATL2-3 | 9.2+7.2 / 12 left | 6–12 | 7.5 | +1.7 |
| Green Bay PackersGB3-2 | 9.0+6.0 / 12 left | 6–12 | 9.5 | -0.5 |
| Pittsburgh SteelersPIT3-2 | 8.4+5.4 / 12 left | 6–11 | 8.5 | -0.1 |
| Philadelphia EaglesPHI2-3 | 8.1+6.1 / 12 left | 5–11 | 10.5 | -2.4 |
| Carolina PanthersCAR2-2 | 8.1+6.1 / 13 left | 5–11 | 7.5 | +0.6 |
| Houston TexansHOU1-4 | 8.1+7.1 / 12 left | 5–11 | 9.5 | -1.4 |
| Dallas CowboysDAL2-3 | 7.9+5.9 / 12 left | 5–11 | 9.5 | -1.6 |
| New York GiantsNYG3-1-1 | 7.8+4.8 / 12 left | 5–11 | 7.5 | +0.3 |
| Las Vegas RaidersLV3-2 | 7.3+4.3 / 12 left | 5–10 | 5.5 | +1.8 |
| Indianapolis ColtsIND2-3 | 7.3+5.3 / 12 left | 5–10 | 7.5 | -0.2 |
| Cleveland BrownsCLE3-2 | 7.1+4.1 / 12 left | 5–10 | 5.5 | +1.6 |
| New York JetsNYJ2-3 | 6.4+4.4 / 12 left | 4–9 | 5.5 | +0.9 |
| Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB1-4 | 6.1+5.1 / 12 left | 3–9 | 8.5 | -2.4 |
| New Orleans SaintsNO1-4 | 5.7+4.7 / 12 left | 3–8 | 7.5 | -1.8 |
| Washington CommandersWAS1-3-1 | 5.7+4.7 / 12 left | 3–8 | 7.5 | -1.8 |
| Los Angeles ChargersLAC0-5 | 5.1+5.1 / 12 left | 2–8 | 10.5 | -5.4 |
| Arizona CardinalsARI1-4 | 4.3+3.3 / 12 left | 2–7 | 3.5 | +0.8 |
| Tennessee TitansTEN0-5 | 3.3+3.3 / 12 left | 1–6 | 6.5 | -3.2 |
| Miami DolphinsMIA0-5 | 2.8+2.8 / 12 left | 1–5 | 4.5 | -1.7 |
Current team strengths and expected starting quarterbacks are held through the remaining schedule. Future injuries, lineup changes, and ties are not simulated. Completed ties count as zero wins.
Ranges come from 100,000 reproducible simulations with shared team-strength uncertainty. Their season-level coverage has not yet been calibrated against historical outcomes.
Ratings: games through Week 5. Schedule retrieved Oct 15, 2026. Depth chart: Oct 13, 2026.
Book: BetMGM, Sep 1, 2026. This is a frozen comparison, not a live quote.