NFL / Playoff forecast
The road to the Super Bowl
Two conferences. Fourteen teams. One champion.
2026 outlook · Results as of Oct 17
10,000 simulated seasons
Playoff leader
97.3%
Title favorite
21.2%
The projected path
One plausible field, with the favorite advancing in each matchup. Higher seeds host; the lowest remaining seed visits No. 1 after Wild Card weekend. Matchup percentages are conditional on these opponents meeting.
AFC
Wild Card
Divisional
AFC title
Highlighted teams advance in this scenario. AFC champion advances to the Super Bowl.
NFC
Wild Card
Divisional
NFC title
Highlighted teams advance in this scenario. NFC champion advances to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl · Neutral site
JAX projected winner · 51.1%
This matchup's favorite is a scenario result. Overall title odds include every possible path.
QB availability
Reported return windows adjust the quarterback assumption for each game and playoff round. The forecast uses the midpoint of each reported range and updates when a newer report is supplied.
BAL · Lamar JacksonReturn date unknown
Backup: Tyler Huntley
Ankle injury: ruled out for Week 6 after missing practice all week. Huntley starts again. No firm return date in the latest report. Backup through 2026-10-18. Later availability is unknown: no recovery odds or return date invented. Later projections use the baseline QB assumptions and remain provisional pending an ETA.
Source report · Oct 16Observed Oct 17
CHI · Caleb WilliamsExpected return: 2026-10-18 · Reported range: 2026-10-18 to 2026-10-18
Backup: Tyson Bagent
Expected to start October 18 after a full practice week, according to NFL Network and ESPN reporting. Still officially questionable; the forecast assumes the reported return, not confirmed clearance. Working ETA: 2026-10-18, the midpoint of the reported range. Backup before that date; starter from that date. This is an estimate, not clearance. The next forecast uses the latest report.
Source report · Oct 17Observed Oct 17
PHI · Jalen HurtsReturn date unknown
Backup: Tanner McKee
Placed on injured reserve with a calf blood clot. Must miss at least four games; no confirmed recovery date. McKee starts. IR eligibility does not establish medical readiness. Backup through 2026-11-08. Later availability is unknown: no recovery odds or return date invented. Later projections use the baseline QB assumptions and remain provisional pending an ETA.
Source report · Oct 17Observed Oct 17
TB · Baker MayfieldReturn date unknown
Backup: Jalon Daniels
Thumb injury: ruled out for Week 6. The team says Week 7 is still uncertain; the earlier minimum three-week absence was not a promised return date. Backup through 2026-10-18. Later availability is unknown: no recovery odds or return date invented. Later projections use the baseline QB assumptions and remain provisional pending an ETA.
Source report · Oct 16Observed Oct 17
How this forecast works
Forecasts are computed offline from Momentum's NFL game model. Completed regular-season results are preserved. The field follows the NFL seeding rules, with reseeding after the Wild Card round.
- Regular-season outlook; the bracket is one plausible field, not locked seeds.
- Future regular-season ties are omitted; completed ties count in standings.
- Tiebreakers follow NFL rules through strength of schedule. Remaining ties are randomized; each team's deep-tiebreak rate reports exposure.
- QB returns use the midpoint of the latest sourced range, not medical recovery probabilities. Unknown ETAs leave baseline QB assumptions unchanged beyond confirmed absences; those projections are provisional. Unscheduled playoff rounds use approximate dates.
- Regular-season outcomes share strength uncertainty. Playoff games use independent matchup draws; title odds have not been separately calibrated.
- Available regular-season sportsbook lines enter the existing published blend. Hypothetical postseason matchups have no market line.
Very small simulated probabilities do not establish mathematical elimination or clinching.
Model: nfl_playoffs_v2:nfl_joint_scoring_qb_v8_totals_v2. Snapshot: Oct 17.