NHL Model Performance
Published forecasts archived before puck drop and graded against official final scores. Each game uses its last pregame revision. Log loss and Brier score judge the home win probability (a coin flip scores 0.693 and 0.250); total MAE and bias judge the model total in goals. The comparison with the closing line follows.
Against the closing line
The close is the last partner-book quote from the 15 minutes before puck drop. The moneyline is converted to a home win probability with the vig removed. Model and market are scored on the same games: only those with a close, so these figures differ from the full-sample ones above. Lower is better.
Pure-model log loss: 0.7300 on the same 19games. The published forecast blends in the morning market price, so its error and the close's are correlated.
Calibration
Observed home win rate against the predicted probability in ten bins. Points above the diagonal mean the model was too pessimistic about the home side, below it too confident.