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CFB / Playoff forecast
Every remaining game. The playoff picture and the conference races that shape it.
Playoff leader
93.3%
Bye favorite
62.8%
Title favorite
24.3%
One possible field. Percentages show each team's overall chance to make the playoff.
Bye · faces 8 / 9 winner
Bye · faces 5 / 12 winner
Bye · faces 7 / 10 winner
Bye · faces 6 / 11 winner
1 / 8 / 9 path
4 / 5 / 12 path
2 / 7 / 10 path
3 / 6 / 11 path
National title
Semifinal winners
Semifinals: the 1 and 4 paths meet; the 2 and 3 paths meet. Winners advance to the national championship.
Teams with at least a 1% playoff chance, plus every AP-ranked team.
AP ranks are shown beside team names. Select a team to explore its remaining schedule.
| Team | Make CFP | Bye | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|
Independent · 6-0 | 93.3% | 62.8% | 24.3% |
ACC · 5-0 | 92.5% | 56.8% | 12.2% |
Big Ten · 6-1 | 85.9% | 55.9% | 15.1% |
SEC · 6-1 | 72.8% | 34.6% | 11.0% |
SEC · 5-2 | 68.1% | 20.8% | 13.7% |
Big Ten · 6-1 | 67.8% | 22.0% | 6.0% |
Big 12 · 5-0 | 62.9% | 32.6% | 4.0% |
Big 12 · 6-0 | 57.9% | 23.9% | 1.1% |
SEC · 4-2 | 45.6% | 9.1% | 4.4% |
Big Ten · 5-0 | 45.2% | 14.2% | 0.6% |
Big 12 · 5-0 | 41.0% | 12.8% | 0.7% |
Sun Belt · 7-0 | 38.9% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
Big 12 · 5-1 | 37.3% | 7.0% | 0.6% |
SEC · 5-1 | 35.9% | 7.8% | 0.8% |
SEC · 5-1 | 35.6% | 7.1% | 0.4% |
Pac-12 · 5-1 | 32.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
SEC · 6-1 | 26.8% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
Big Ten · 5-1 | 25.9% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
ACC · 5-1 | 25.1% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
SEC · 5-2 | 24.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
Big Ten · 6-1 | 19.5% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
Big Ten · 3-2 | 15.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
Big Ten · 5-1 | 12.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
SEC · 4-2 | 12.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
SEC · 5-2 | 12.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Big Ten · 5-1 | 12.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
Big 12 · 5-1 | 10.2% | 1.4% | <0.1% |
SEC · 3-2 | 9.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
American Athletic · 5-1 | 9.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
SEC · 5-2 | 8.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
Big Ten · 4-1 | 7.0% | 0.7% | <0.1% |
Big 12 · 4-1 | 5.1% | 0.6% | <0.1% |
SEC · 4-2 | 4.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
ACC · 5-1 | 4.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
Pac-12 · 5-2 | 3.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Mountain West · 4-1 | 3.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
ACC · 4-2 | 2.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
ACC · 4-2 | 1.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
American Athletic · 4-2 | 1.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Mountain West · 5-1 | 1.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Conference USA · 5-1 | 1.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Sun Belt · 3-2 | 1.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Big 12 · 4-1 | 1.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
SEC · 4-3 | 1.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Momentum simulates the remaining schedule, conference championships, and every playoff round. The fitted schedule-adjusted-record selector chooses the field under the 2026 CFP rules. The displayed bracket is one legal simulated field, not a certainty.
Historical selection Brier error was 0.03432 versus 0.03468 for the learned committee model. Lower is better. The comparison covers only two twelve-team seasons; championship odds do not have a separate historical calibration claim.
Probabilities below 0.1% include outcomes not observed in these simulations; they do not imply impossibility.