MLB Model Performance
Updates nightly ~midnight PT
Last updated:
How the MLB model's win probabilities and run totals have held up: calibration, Brier score, and betting results against the closing line, scored overnight after every game.
Brier0.247
MAE2.495
Pick Acc55.0%model picks winner (1291/2356)
ROI-0.1%
Sharpe-0.74
Max DD-2.99u
Accuracy Over Time
Pooled over a trailing 14-day window: correct picks divided by picks made, not an average of daily rates.
Evaluation History
| Date | Pick Acc | ML | Run Line | Totals | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 1/1 (100.0%) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 1.762 |
| 2026-10-17 | 0/1 (0.0%) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 1.874 |
| 2026-10-15 | 1/2 (50.0%) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 1.440 |
| 2026-10-14 | 0/1 (0.0%) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 2.625 |
| 2026-10-13 | 1/1 (100.0%) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 2.098 |
| 2026-10-12 | 0/2 (0.0%) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 2.109 |
| 2026-10-11 | 0/1 (0.0%) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 0/0 (–) | 2.147 |