MLB / Postseason
The road to the World Series
Every series. Every possible path. Powered by our plate-appearance model.
Before the Championship Series
Results through the previous round are locked. The rest of the bracket is the forecast going into the Championship Series. This is the latest forecast; it stays fixed once the round begins.
Published Oct 14, 2026.
Projected champion
Los Angeles Dodgers
50.6% overall title chance
The model’s projected path
Series favorite + its most likely winning score. Tap a series for details.
Wild Card
Best of 3
Division Series
Best of 5
Championship Series
Best of 7
World Series
Best of 7
American League
National League
Championship chances
All possible opponents and paths, combined.
| Team | Reach DS | Reach LCS | Reach WS | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
LADNL 2 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 73.7% | 50.6% |
CLEAL 2 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 50.7% | 19.9% |
TBRAL 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 49.3% | 17.9% |
MILNL 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 26.3% | 11.5% |
HOUAL 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NYYAL 4 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
BOSAL 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
CHWAL 6 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
ATLNL 3 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
SDPNL 4 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
CHCNL 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
PHINL 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
How the model builds this bracket
Snapshot: Oct 14, 12:33 PM ET. Model: sim-v3. Training through 2026-09-27. 10,000 simulations per game scenario.
- Reconstructed pre-Championship Series forecast, generated October 14. Both Championship Series start at 0-0; no results from either Championship Series are used.
- Reuses the frozen October 2 simulations, lineups and rotation assumptions. Only completed Division Series results are added; no later roster changes or pitching announcements are used.
- Model-only plate-appearance simulation, with the model home-field adjustment. No betting-market blend.
- October 2 active-roster hitters ranked by season plate appearances form projected batting orders.
- Only probable pitchers known in the October 2 snapshot are used. Other games cycle projected regular starters ranked by season starts.
- Rotations reset each round; full-rest bullpens and neutral weather. Future injuries, substitutions and fatigue are not simulated.
- Posterior mean player skills are used. Odds include game randomness, not full parameter uncertainty.
- Wild Card and Division Series results are locked. Championship Series and World Series results are excluded.
- Series odds are conditional on the displayed matchup. Championship odds sum every possible bracket path.
The displayed bracket is one path, not a guarantee or the most probable complete bracket. A team can lead the title odds without winning every conditional matchup. These postseason forecasts have not been validated as calibrated championship probabilities.
MLB postseason formatRotation: Freddy Peralta, Nick Martinez, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan
Batting order: Liam Hicks, Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, Taylor Walls, Richie Palacios
Rotation: Foster Griffin, Tanner Bibee, Parker Messick, Gavin Williams
Batting order: Jo Adell, Nathaniel Lowe, Patrick Bailey, Steven Kwan, Brayan Rocchio, Chase DeLauter, José Ramírez, Travis Bazzana, Angel Martínez
Rotation: Peter Lambert, Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier
Batting order: Daulton Varsho, Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Cam Smith, Jeremy Peña, Yainer Diaz, Jorge Barrosa
Rotation: Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried
Batting order: Luis García Jr., Heliot Ramos, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, José Caballero, Austin Wells, Paul Goldschmidt
Rotation: Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, Jake Bennett
Batting order: Adley Rutschman, Wilyer Abreu, Curtis Mead, Jarren Duran, Caleb Durbin, Ceddanne Rafaela, Willson Contreras, Jahmai Jones, Andruw Monasterio
Rotation: Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Noah Schultz
Batting order: Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery, Randal Grichuk, Sam Antonacci, Munetaka Murakami, Tristan Peters, Andrew Benintendi, Brenton Doyle
League-average fallback: Jake Rogers
Rotation: Dustin May, Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, Robert Gasser
Batting order: Brice Turang, William Contreras, Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich, Joey Ortiz, David Hamilton, Sal Frelick
Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Justin Wrobleski
Batting order: Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Hunter Feduccia, Teoscar Hernández, Tommy Edman
League-average fallback: Miguel Rojas
Rotation: Tyler Mahle, Grant Holmes, Chris Sale
Batting order: Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Mauricio Dubón, Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuña Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith
Rotation: Robbie Ray, Michael King, Walker Buehler, Nick Pivetta
Batting order: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, Ty France, Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets, Dustin Harris, Freddy Fermin
Rotation: Kevin Gausman, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga
Batting order: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Tyrone Taylor, Carson Kelly
Rotation: Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola, Jesús Luzardo, Zack Wheeler
Batting order: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Crawford, Derek Hill
League-average fallback: Garrett Stubbs