Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | PHI vs NE | 41–33 | -2.8 | -4.5 | +8.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 20 | JAX @ NE | 20–24 | -5.9 | -7.5 | -4.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 20 | MIN @ PHI | 7–38 | +4.5 | +3.0 | -31.0 | 35.5 |
| 2017 | 19 | ATL @ PHI | 10–15 | +3.4 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 8.4 |
| 2017 | 19 | JAX @ PIT | 45–42 | -5.6 | -7.0 | +3.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 19 | NO @ MIN | 24–29 | -5.3 | -5.5 | -5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 19 | TEN @ NE | 14–35 | -11.8 | -13.5 | -21.0 | 9.2 |
| 2017 | 18 | ATL @ LA | 26–13 | -5.7 | -6.5 | +13.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 18 | BUF @ JAX | 3–10 | -10.1 | -8.5 | -7.0 | 3.1 |
| 2017 | 18 | CAR @ NO | 26–31 | -6.3 | -6.5 | -5.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 18 | TEN @ KC | 22–21 | -8.8 | -8.5 | +1.0 | 9.8 |
| 2017 | 17 | ARI @ SEA | 26–24 | -5.8 | -8.0 | +2.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | BUF @ MIA | 22–16 | +0.7 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 5.3 |
| 2017 | 17 | CAR @ ATL | 10–22 | -3.9 | -5.0 | -12.0 | 8.1 |
| 2017 | 17 | CHI @ MIN | 10–23 | -12.7 | -13.5 | -13.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | CIN @ BAL | 31–27 | -10.0 | -8.0 | +4.0 | 14.0 |
| 2017 | 17 | CLE @ PIT | 24–28 | -9.4 | -5.0 | -4.0 | 5.4 |
| 2017 | 17 | DAL @ PHI | 6–0 | -2.9 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017 | 17 | GB @ DET | 11–35 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | HOU @ IND | 13–22 | -4.2 | -5.5 | -9.0 | 4.8 |
| 2017 | 17 | JAX @ TEN | 10–15 | +2.9 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 7.9 |
| 2017 | 17 | KC @ DEN | 27–24 | -1.5 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | NO @ TB | 24–31 | +4.3 | +6.0 | -7.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | NYJ @ NE | 6–26 | -18.4 | -17.0 | -20.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | LV @ LAC | 10–30 | -11.0 | -7.0 | -20.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | SF @ LA | 34–13 | +5.2 | +6.5 | +21.0 | 15.8 |
| 2017 | 17 | WAS @ NYG | 10–18 | +3.5 | +5.0 | -8.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | ATL @ NO | 13–23 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -10.0 | 5.5 |
| 2017 | 16 | BUF @ NE | 16–37 | -14.0 | -11.0 | -21.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | CLE @ CHI | 3–20 | -7.5 | -5.5 | -17.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | DEN @ WAS | 11–27 | -1.0 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 15.0 |
| 2017 | 16 | DET @ CIN | 17–26 | +5.7 | +3.0 | -9.0 | 14.7 |
| 2017 | 16 | IND @ BAL | 16–23 | -14.0 | -13.5 | -7.0 | 7.0 |
| 2017 | 16 | JAX @ SF | 33–44 | +5.5 | +4.0 | -11.0 | 16.5 |
| 2017 | 16 | LA @ TEN | 27–23 | +7.0 | +5.5 | +4.0 | 3.0 |
| 2017 | 16 | LAC @ NYJ | 14–7 | +11.2 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 4.2 |
| 2017 | 16 | MIA @ KC | 13–29 | -11.5 | -11.0 | -16.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | MIN @ GB | 16–0 | +9.5 | +8.5 | +16.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | NYG @ ARI | 0–23 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -23.0 | 20.3 |
| 2017 | 16 | LV @ PHI | 10–19 | -8.8 | -10.0 | -9.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | PIT @ HOU | 34–6 | +7.3 | +8.0 | +28.0 | 20.7 |
| 2017 | 16 | SEA @ DAL | 21–12 | -3.0 | -4.5 | +9.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | TB @ CAR | 19–22 | -8.8 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 15 | ARI @ WAS | 15–20 | -2.4 | -4.0 | -5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2017 | 15 | ATL @ TB | 24–21 | +5.6 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 15 | BAL @ CLE | 27–10 | +7.7 | +6.5 | +17.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 15 | CHI @ DET | 10–20 | -4.8 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 5.2 |
| 2017 | 15 | CIN @ MIN | 7–34 | -12.2 | -12.5 | -27.0 | 14.8 |
| 2017 | 15 | DAL @ LV | 20–17 | +2.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 15 | DEN @ IND | 25–13 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +12.0 | 9.4 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.