Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | SEA vs NE | 29–13 | +3.6 | +4.5 | +16.0 | 12.4 |
| 2025 | 21 | LA @ SEA | 27–31 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -4.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 21 | NE @ DEN | 10–7 | +6.5 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 3.5 |
| 2025 | 20 | BUF @ DEN | 30–33 | -0.1 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 2.9 |
| 2025 | 20 | HOU @ NE | 16–28 | -4.2 | -3.0 | -12.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 20 | LA @ CHI | 20–17 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 20 | SF @ SEA | 6–41 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -35.0 | 29.4 |
| 2025 | 19 | BUF @ JAX | 27–24 | -2.3 | -1.5 | +3.0 | 5.3 |
| 2025 | 19 | GB @ CHI | 27–31 | +1.0 | +2.5 | -4.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 19 | HOU @ PIT | 30–6 | +2.9 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 21.1 |
| 2025 | 19 | LA @ CAR | 34–31 | +10.5 | +10.0 | +3.0 | 7.5 |
| 2025 | 19 | LAC @ NE | 3–16 | -7.3 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 19 | SF @ PHI | 23–19 | -3.9 | -6.0 | +4.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | ARI @ LA | 20–37 | -16.0 | -14.5 | -17.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | BAL @ PIT | 24–26 | +3.1 | +4.5 | -2.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | CAR @ TB | 14–16 | -2.2 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | 20–18 | -11.1 | -9.5 | +2.0 | 13.1 |
| 2025 | 18 | DAL @ NYG | 17–34 | +0.4 | +3.0 | -17.0 | 17.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | DET @ CHI | 19–16 | -4.0 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 | 18 | GB @ MIN | 3–16 | -15.3 | -12.5 | -13.0 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | 18 | IND @ HOU | 30–38 | -11.7 | -9.5 | -8.0 | 3.7 |
| 2025 | 18 | KC @ LV | 12–14 | +1.6 | +3.5 | -2.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | LAC @ DEN | 3–19 | -11.0 | -14.5 | -16.0 | 5.0 |
| 2025 | 18 | MIA @ NE | 10–38 | -15.9 | -14.0 | -28.0 | 12.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | NO @ ATL | 17–19 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -2.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | NYJ @ BUF | 8–35 | -15.5 | -12.5 | -27.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | SEA @ SF | 13–3 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 9.5 |
| 2025 | 18 | TEN @ JAX | 7–41 | -13.8 | -12.5 | -34.0 | 20.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | WAS @ PHI | 24–17 | -8.1 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 15.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | ARI @ CIN | 14–37 | -7.7 | -7.0 | -23.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | BAL @ GB | 41–24 | -2.7 | -2.5 | +17.0 | 19.7 |
| 2025 | 17 | CHI @ SF | 38–42 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 1.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | DAL @ WAS | 30–23 | +5.8 | +8.5 | +7.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | DEN @ KC | 20–13 | +11.1 | +13.5 | +7.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | DET @ MIN | 10–23 | +6.4 | +7.0 | -13.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | HOU @ LAC | 20–16 | +0.1 | -1.5 | +4.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | JAX @ IND | 23–17 | +2.6 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 3.4 |
| 2025 | 17 | LA @ ATL | 24–27 | +9.6 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 12.6 |
| 2025 | 17 | NE @ NYJ | 42–10 | +15.9 | +12.5 | +32.0 | 16.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | NO @ TEN | 34–26 | +1.7 | +1.5 | +8.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | NYG @ LV | 34–10 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 21.4 |
| 2025 | 17 | PHI @ BUF | 13–12 | -1.3 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | PIT @ CLE | 6–13 | +7.1 | +4.5 | -7.0 | 14.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | SEA @ CAR | 27–10 | +7.5 | +6.5 | +17.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | TB @ MIA | 17–20 | +3.4 | +5.5 | -3.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 16 | ATL @ ARI | 26–19 | +2.9 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 16 | BUF @ CLE | 23–20 | +11.4 | +10.5 | +3.0 | 8.4 |
| 2025 | 16 | CIN @ MIA | 45–21 | +3.6 | +3.5 | +24.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 16 | GB @ CHI | 16–22 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -6.0 | 5.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | JAX @ DEN | 34–20 | -2.2 | -3.5 | +14.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.