Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | SF vs KC | 22–25 | +1.9 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 4.9 |
| 2023 | 21 | DET @ SF | 31–34 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | KC @ BAL | 17–10 | -6.7 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 13.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | GB @ SF | 21–24 | -4.4 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | HOU @ BAL | 10–34 | -10.9 | -10.0 | -24.0 | 13.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | KC @ BUF | 27–24 | -3.1 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 6.1 |
| 2023 | 20 | TB @ DET | 23–31 | -5.3 | -6.0 | -8.0 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 19 | CLE @ HOU | 14–45 | +1.0 | +2.5 | -31.0 | 32.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | GB @ DAL | 48–32 | -5.8 | -7.0 | +16.0 | 21.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | LA @ DET | 23–24 | -3.2 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | MIA @ KC | 7–26 | -2.4 | -4.5 | -19.0 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | 19 | PHI @ TB | 9–32 | -1.0 | +2.5 | -23.0 | 22.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | PIT @ BUF | 17–31 | -7.0 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 7.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | ATL @ NO | 17–48 | -5.4 | -3.5 | -31.0 | 25.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | BUF @ MIA | 21–14 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 6.5 |
| 2023 | 18 | CHI @ GB | 9–17 | -3.8 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | 14–31 | -2.2 | -7.5 | -17.0 | 14.8 |
| 2023 | 18 | DAL @ WAS | 38–10 | +14.8 | +13.0 | +28.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | DEN @ LV | 14–27 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | HOU @ IND | 23–19 | +0.0 | +1.5 | +4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | JAX @ TEN | 20–28 | +2.8 | +3.5 | -8.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | KC @ LAC | 13–12 | -3.2 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | LA @ SF | 21–20 | -4.7 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | MIN @ DET | 20–30 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | NYJ @ NE | 17–3 | -3.5 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 17.5 |
| 2023 | 18 | PHI @ NYG | 10–27 | +3.1 | +4.5 | -17.0 | 20.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | PIT @ BAL | 17–10 | -2.4 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 9.4 |
| 2023 | 18 | SEA @ ARI | 21–20 | +3.4 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 2.4 |
| 2023 | 18 | TB @ CAR | 9–0 | +6.2 | +5.0 | +9.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | ARI @ PHI | 35–31 | -12.3 | -12.0 | +4.0 | 16.3 |
| 2023 | 17 | ATL @ CHI | 17–37 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -20.0 | 17.7 |
| 2023 | 17 | CAR @ JAX | 0–26 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -26.0 | 23.5 |
| 2023 | 17 | CIN @ KC | 17–25 | -6.4 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | DET @ DAL | 19–20 | -5.8 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 4.8 |
| 2023 | 17 | GB @ MIN | 33–10 | -2.4 | -1.0 | +23.0 | 25.4 |
| 2023 | 17 | LA @ NYG | 26–25 | +7.5 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 6.5 |
| 2023 | 17 | LAC @ DEN | 9–16 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | LV @ IND | 20–23 | -1.9 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2023 | 17 | MIA @ BAL | 19–56 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -37.0 | 33.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | NE @ BUF | 21–27 | -13.6 | -15.0 | -6.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | NO @ TB | 23–13 | -4.0 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 14.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | NYJ @ CLE | 20–37 | -8.9 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 8.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | PIT @ SEA | 30–23 | -4.1 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | SF @ WAS | 27–10 | +15.8 | +14.0 | +17.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | TEN @ HOU | 3–26 | -2.6 | -5.0 | -23.0 | 20.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | ARI @ CHI | 16–27 | -6.9 | -4.5 | -11.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | BAL @ SF | 33–19 | -7.3 | -6.5 | +14.0 | 21.3 |
| 2023 | 16 | BUF @ LAC | 24–22 | +14.6 | +13.0 | +2.0 | 12.6 |
| 2023 | 16 | CIN @ PIT | 11–34 | +5.4 | +3.0 | -23.0 | 28.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | CLE @ HOU | 36–22 | +4.3 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.