Backtest History
284 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | KC vs PHI | 38–35 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 4.5 |
| 2022 | 21 | CIN @ KC | 20–23 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 21 | SF @ PHI | 7–31 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -24.0 | 21.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 20 | CIN @ BUF | 27–10 | -2.9 | -6.0 | +17.0 | 19.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 20 | DAL @ SF | 12–19 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 20 | JAX @ KC | 20–27 | -10.1 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 3.1 |
| 2022 | 20 | NYG @ PHI | 7–38 | -6.3 | -8.0 | -31.0 | 24.7 |
| 2022 | 19 | BAL @ CIN | 17–24 | -8.4 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 1.4 |
| 2022 | 19 | DAL @ TB | 31–14 | +3.0 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 19 | LAC @ JAX | 30–31 | +0.0 | +2.0 | -1.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 19 | MIA @ BUF | 31–34 | -13.3 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 19 | NYG @ MIN | 31–24 | -0.9 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 19 | SEA @ SF | 23–41 | -13.0 | -10.0 | -18.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | ARI @ SF | 13–38 | -16.4 | -14.0 | -25.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | BAL @ CIN | 16–27 | -10.3 | -11.0 | -11.0 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 18 | CAR @ NO | 10–7 | -3.4 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | CLE @ PIT | 14–28 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -14.0 | 11.5 |
| 2022 | 18 | DAL @ WAS | 6–26 | +7.7 | +7.5 | -20.0 | 27.7 |
| 2022 | 18 | DET @ GB | 20–16 | -2.9 | -5.5 | +4.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | HOU @ IND | 32–31 | -2.4 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | KC @ LV | 31–13 | +10.0 | +9.0 | +18.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | LA @ SEA | 16–19 | -2.9 | -5.5 | -3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | LAC @ DEN | 28–31 | +0.8 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 3.8 |
| 2022 | 18 | MIN @ CHI | 29–13 | +6.6 | +6.5 | +16.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | NE @ BUF | 23–35 | -8.2 | -8.0 | -12.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | NYG @ PHI | 16–22 | -13.6 | -16.5 | -6.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | NYJ @ MIA | 6–11 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 2.2 |
| 2022 | 18 | TB @ ATL | 17–30 | -0.4 | -6.0 | -13.0 | 12.6 |
| 2022 | 18 | TEN @ JAX | 16–20 | -10.0 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 6.0 |
| 2022 | 17 | ARI @ ATL | 19–20 | -5.5 | -7.0 | -1.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | CAR @ TB | 24–30 | -1.8 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 17 | CHI @ DET | 10–41 | -7.0 | -4.5 | -31.0 | 24.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | CLE @ WAS | 24–10 | -0.9 | -1.0 | +14.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | DAL @ TEN | 27–13 | +14.6 | +14.0 | +14.0 | 0.6 |
| 2022 | 17 | DEN @ KC | 24–27 | -15.2 | -13.5 | -3.0 | 12.2 |
| 2022 | 17 | IND @ NYG | 10–38 | -5.8 | -5.5 | -28.0 | 22.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | JAX @ HOU | 31–3 | +6.4 | +3.5 | +28.0 | 21.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | LA @ LAC | 10–31 | -4.0 | -6.5 | -21.0 | 17.0 |
| 2022 | 17 | MIA @ NE | 21–23 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 3.6 |
| 2022 | 17 | MIN @ GB | 17–41 | -4.3 | -3.0 | -24.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | NO @ PHI | 20–10 | -7.6 | -5.5 | +10.0 | 17.6 |
| 2022 | 17 | NYJ @ SEA | 6–23 | +2.3 | +1.0 | -17.0 | 19.3 |
| 2022 | 17 | PIT @ BAL | 16–13 | -0.1 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | SF @ LV | 37–34 | +13.8 | +10.0 | +3.0 | 10.8 |
| 2022 | 16 | ATL @ BAL | 9–17 | -7.8 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | BUF @ CHI | 35–13 | +8.0 | +8.0 | +22.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | CIN @ NE | 22–18 | +3.9 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | DEN @ LA | 14–51 | +3.3 | +3.0 | -37.0 | 40.3 |
| 2022 | 16 | DET @ CAR | 23–37 | +5.2 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 19.2 |
| 2022 | 16 | GB @ MIA | 26–20 | -5.2 | -3.5 | +6.0 | 11.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.